“You can appear to stay away from a lot during a lot of damage,” says senior economists.

Last week, it is Firing Labor Statistics Office, Erika Minarker, just hours after the agency issued a bleak report in July. He plans to appoint someone in place It is considered “More efficient.” A few days ago, Trump announced plans for name The next Federal Reserve Chairman “Very soon“Months before the validity of the current Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome Powell. This step provides Trump’s extraordinary opportunity to form the direction of the central bank before the specified date.

some Critics It has warned that successive shifts are a broader trend for Trump’s second presidency, one of the weak political independence of the main financial bodies-a basic feature of American liberal democracy.

To explore the meaning of this transformation of business leaders, luck He spoke with Francis Fukuyama, one of the world’s leading scientists in democratic institutions.

Familiar warning from the 1970s

“Trump’s philosophy is that everything is political,” said Fukuyama. “Either you are with him or against him – and if you are against him, you should not be in the government.”

He said that this approach is directly inconsistent with the liberal model of the ruling: one based on “non -personal and non -party bureaucracy” run by technical experts. In super complex, Fukuyama argues that this model is necessary for wealthy economies such as the United States.

Fukuyama said Trump seems not interested in this vision. He put an idea Appointing itself Like the Federal Reserve Carre and continues Threaten Powell trying to challenge his authority. Instead of postponing the experts, Trump indicated a desire to direct economic decisions from the executive authority.

However, institutions such as the Federal Reserve are designed to resist this type of overlap. Their role is isolated from the drama of political courses, especially when it comes to interest rates, as short -term discounts can help re -elect it but pays inflation in the long run.

While Fukuyama said that former presidents had respected these handrails, Trump’s direct pressure on the central bank is “unprecedented”.

Compare the moment with the early 1970s, when President Richard Nixon again and again I pushed Federal Reserve to reduce interest rates before its campaign to re -election. The Federal Reserve’s Chair surrendered at the time, a step that helped operate the hyperplasia in the nodes.

“This era is very similar to what is happening now,” said Fukuyama. “We have many examples of what is happening to countries without independent central banks.”

He cited issues from Latin America and sub -Saharan Africa in the 1980s, as the central banks captured politically helped high prices.

Fukuyama warned that the problem of executives and investors is that if the next Federal Reserve Chair is more willing to follow Trump’s preferences, the effects may not be done immediately.

“If Trump shoots Powell tomorrow, people will not feel influenced for two years, and perhaps three years,” he said. “People may not link this political act to the economic pain they feel.”

He added that this delay creates fragility. “You can appear away from a lot while you are already causing a lot of damage.”

Data politicization risks

Fukuyama said that Trump’s launch from MCENTARFer carries a different danger, but he is equally dangerous: politicizing official statistics. He referred to Argentina in 2007, when the then President Nestor Kirchner refused a government statistical statistical clashes with inflation reports with the government’s narration.

“Magic, inflation decreased,” said Fukuyama. “Everyone knew this was existing on a completely political basis and not reliable.”

He warned that once I lost credibility, it is difficult to restore. “This is the danger we face when we start cutting the independence of these neutral experts.”

Why do CEOs must keep the distance

For business leaders, the incentive for survival may not be neutral. Fukuama noticed how some executives attended the exclusive donation dinner, including Events Where investors in Trump’s encrypted currency were offered to personal access to the president.

But Fukuyama has warned that approaching political figures often proves the opposite results.

“It is difficult to operate recently predictable business when policy is very involved,” he said. “On the old days, if you have to a political bribe to reach your path, it was a very ineffective system.”

He also referred to Elon Musk as an example of how to complicate public politicization with the image of the public company. By politicizing his brand, Musk isolation The exact market that was hoping to sell cars to.

Fukuyama added that the lesson is that CEOs are better at work within a stable system that is not controlled. “The more it is possible to predict the rules, the easier it is to do business.”