Various whiskey bottles on the shelves in a bar.
HIOB | Istock | Gety pictures
Worldwide makers are staring at a cocktail from sober challenges, as definitions and brand provinces threaten the exacerbation of the broader transformations of drinking habits.
French Maker Rémy Cointreau On Wednesday it became the latest lifemaker, after that Diago and Burnoud RicardTo withdraw its sales goals to increase economic uncertainty and trade.
“Given the lack of a lack of a total economic vision, many cases of geopolitical uncertainty surrounding the policies of the US-Chinese tariffs, and the absence of so far to recover in the American market … The conditions required to preserve (Remy Cointreau) 2029-2030 are no longer in place.” statement.
The move came at a time when sales of the entire year in the group Cagenac group, whose name includes the same name, Remy Martin, was 22 % on an organic basis to slow US consumption and “complex market conditions” in China.
The famous Brande collection, which descended from the French region in Connac, was particularly It caught at the intersection of continuous tensions of the United States. LVMH Likewise saw a 17 % decrease In Hennessy Conneck in the first quarter.
But the specialized drink is far from alone while weakening the commercial barriers already drying the demand for lives. Wine and spiritual drinks in LVMH are still the worst performance department in the French luxury group, while Diaageo Spirits including Tanquairay, Gordon’s and Smirnoff the Sharp declines In the first quarter, where the sales of the Irish Guinness gathered.
“The mocking souls in the United States are going through a correction, and the American definitions add another layer of uncertainty,” Jeffrez said in the memorandum last month.
Self -draining definitions
The status – and legal requirements often – associated with lives and wine means that they depend greatly on local production, and thus are significantly exposed to American import fees. Champagne and bottles packed inside the champagne region should be produced, for example.
“With lives and wines, you have Terroir cache, this means that you are produced locally and export. Then, it is more likely to have geopolitical tensions,” Sanjet Aujla, an UBS analyst, told CNBC via video call.
Remy Cointreau has estimated that the customs tariff because it is currently standing can serve a 65 million euros is a blow ($ 55 million) for her work after mitigating measures. At the same time, Diago said about 25 % of her work Duties are scheduled to be affected.
Beverage makers
The same does not apply to beer, which depends on local production and has been marked An in a possible winner Trade divisions are fermented. It is worth noting that the largest beer factory in the world AB Inb.As well as the Dutch and Danish Heinkin and Carlsberg All of them maintained the instructions of the whole year in the first quarter.
As a result, it is possible that wine and lives are likely Brand boycott Also, with consumers approaching a specific product on political foundations in favor of a homemade alternative.
Axis
The tariff blow comes as the industry has slowed in recent years after a strong decade of growth, especially during the Covid-19s. Consumers closed more alcohol in 2020 and 2021, providing a simultaneous increase in distinguished brands.
“During the epidemic, people not only drank more, but they used to depend more than that.”
Spirits are often seen as welfare at reasonable prices, especially in good economic times. However, they tend to be a transverse purchase, while many Kofid era stocks remain in alcoholic wardrobes around the world.
Various packages of white claw for sale in Albertsons Cos are offered. The grocery store in San Diego, California.
Bloomberg Gety pictures
With the transformation of economic conditions, consumers may be less inclined to coughing $ 100 for a good bottle, instead, or choose low -cost alternatives to drink (RTD).
“RTDS, based on the growth of distilled spirits, along with the effect of cumulative inflation,” said Jeffrez, adding that the reduction was more clear in vodka and Roman products, while the demand for distinctive whiskey, Taklla and Jin remained more powerful.
Aujla added: “This (specialization) stops today, given the periodic opposite winds that we have in this industry.”
Dry talisman permanent?
The demand for drying comes at a time when health and wellness trends are shift in consumer habits, as more people have become “curious curiosity” and the experience of decreased alcohol consumption. In fact, many beverage makers have sought to embrace this shift with new ranges of low products and non -alcohol.
Meanwhile, the proliferation of weight loss medications – and early evidence of its role in suppressing the intense desire for alcohol – is another possible challenge to the industry.
However, analysts remain divided into the severity and perpetuation of contraction.
“There is a big discussion about how poverty is currently asking for poverty periodically or structurally,” said James Edwards Jones, an analyst at RBC Capital Markets.
Periodic pressure indicates economic opposite winds and residual supplies from the Covid era, while structural transformations indicate a change of consumer patterns.
“It is part of both, and more patrol than the structure,” said Ogla. “But when periodic opposite winds dissipate, we believe that the growth of the industry in the United States will be 1-2 % less than historical growth by 4-5 %.”
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