Will Israel try to kill Ayatollah Ali Khawni, and what does it mean for the region?

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the supreme leader of Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khounai, who calls him, did not rule out a “existential” threat to Israel. Netanyahu has made it clear that Israel wants to see it, and to help restore the change of the regime in Iran, which was ruled by a solid a myocratic government since the Islamic Revolution in 1979.

Friday, after the first request AttacksNetanyahu said: “The battle of Israel is not against the Iranian people. Our battle against the deadly Islamic regime that persecutes you and weakens you.”

He urged the people of Iran to “unite about their historical knowledge and legacy, by standing for your freedom from the evil and oppressive regime,” adding, “This is your opportunity to stand and leave your voices hear.”

When he asked ABC News in an interview that was broadcast on Monday if Israel will try to kill my crude, Netanyahu only says that his country “does what we have to do.”

He rejected the suggestions that such a step would be escalating, however, saying: “The conflict will not go up, the conflict will end.”

Israel struck the interior ore circle

“I imagine that the supreme leader is currently unable to sleep and anxiety about whether he will remain alive or not,” Holly Djris, a regional expert and older colleague at the Washington Institute’s research center in Washington, DC, told CBS News on Monday.

The ongoing strikes of Israel have killed many senior generals and security advisers in Iran to Ayatollah, which dealt with his internal circle, which, according to Reuters news agency, consists of only 15 to 20 trusted. Among the deaths of the Supreme Commander of the Revolutionary Guards, the elite in Iran, Hussein Salami, the head of the Iranian ballistic missiles, Amir Ali, and the head of espionage, Muhammad Kazimi.

On Tuesday, the Israeli army boasted about killing the man who was exploited to replace the Chief of Staff of the Iranian Army, just four days after his predecessor was killed in his first tour of the strikes.

An Israeli military spokesman said that the Iranian Chief of Staff, Ali Steamani, “was eliminated at the headquarters of the Iranian regime in the heart of Tehran,” describing him “the man closest to Iran’s leader, Khameneini.”

But even if Israel would kill Ayatollah himself, Dajris said that the Iranian regime is a consolidated process to maintain the stability of the government.

Iran is not run by “one man and some generals”

“The thing with the Islamic Republic is that this is not just a man and some generals,” Dajris told CBS News. “This is a very widespread system or device. The Islamic Republic has something similar to the Vatican College (Vatican) – the Association of Experts, and they actually determine who will become a major leader.”

The Supreme Religious Authority, also known as the Council of Iranian Experts, consists of 88 senior Islamic clerics responsible for the election of the supreme leader of Iran, usually when the current leader dies.

“From what we have seen so far, none of these people seem to have been targeted” by Israel. “This is a replacement system in terms of driving at the top, because they are ultimately ready for the supreme leader.”

Even if the entire theocratic government is in collapse, the turmoil will not necessarily guarantee a new government that is more friendly The people of Iran are pent -upTo Israel, or to the United States.

“There can be a scenario in which the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, and they can go in different directions.” “They can be more authoritarian. They can be more friendly to Western. We don’t know. I think one of the Arab Spring lessons, even LionWas it not always better.“

These uprisings in the Arab Spring supporting democracy throughout the Middle East in 2010-in Egypt, Libya, Syria, Yemen and Tunisia-initially met with hope in the democratic Western world, but in most of these countries, bids for democracy were either transferred to civil war, or were beaten by new negative groups or returnees or their ascension.

Can internal tension threaten the Iranian regime?

Ensuring that, Israeli Defense Secretary, Israel, warned Katz against Iran’s supreme leader on Tuesday that he might suffer from a similar fate to former Iraqi President Saddam Hussein. The Iraqi powerful man regime decreased in 2003 after nearly a quarter of a century. He was found hidden in a warehouse by the American forces and was sentenced to death by a special Iraqi court and hanged crimes against humanity.

“I warn the Iranian dictator against continuing to commit war crimes and firing rockets towards Israeli civilians,” Katz said on Tuesday. “He must remember what happened to the dictator in the country adjacent to Iran, which took the same way against Israel.”

“The types of tensions that cause the regime to fall are usually internal, not external,” Alon Pinkas, a former Israeli diplomat and commentator in Tel Aviv, told CBS News on Tuesday.

Pinkas pointed out that the tremendous contradiction in the size between Israel and Iran is much greater, which indicated that it was 1100 miles away: “A 10 million country cannot hurry to change the regime in a country of 90 million people”, which highlights the great contradiction in the size between Israel and Iran much, which he referred to about 1100 miles away.

“In order for this to happen, in order for a change in the system, it mainly needs to be re -representing the failed Iraqi invasion (by the United States) for the year 2003,” Pinkas said. “I don’t think anyone wants it, and certainly not the Americans.”

Netanyahu’s invitation to the Iranians is seen to advance against their leadership as a “transparent arrogance”.

“I doubt that anyone who lives in Tehran and listens to Netanyahu will say,” Oh, Wow, as you know, this is an invitation to work, I must go out and fight the regime because Mr. Netanyahu, a thousand miles away, told me that. “

The last time the anti -government street protests erupted in Iran in 2022 with the so -called “Woman, Life, Freedom” Movement. This anger at the death of the 22 -year -old Kurdish woman sparked an amni -off mission in the Iranian religious police, after her arrest of her inappropriate head.

Netanyahu has repeated the protest of three words in messages that target directly to the Iranians since his country launched its attacks late last week.

But those protests in Iran were rapidly canceled – and promoted – by the Iranian authorities and decreased by the spring of 2023.

Since Israel began bombing Iran last week, no one has moved to the streets in Iranian cities. The country’s residents seem to focus on immediate threat, defending shelter and evacuating major cities with low Israeli bombs.

“Why will you be in the streets if the Israeli aircraft bombed those streets in particular or bombed the military targets that are not far from you,” Penkes note. “They are far away, as much as possible from Tehran … But I think that when dust settles – it may be within two or three days, it can also be within three weeks, frankly I cannot predict this – I think a lot of this anger will come out on the system.”

In other words, even if Israel’s actions do not push for the immediate overthrow of Iranian Islamic rulers, it may lead to the determination of the Iranians to stand in front of their written leaders. If this happens, it may come in one of the weakest moments of Ayatollah in nearly half a century.