Will Hezbollah weaken as Lebanon shifts toward new rule? | Politics news

Beirut, Lebanon – New boss. New Prime Minister. The feeling is that Hezbollah, arguably the most powerful group in the country, has weakened.

The past few weeks have marked potential transformations in Lebanon, especially when taken in the context of a political system that often appears frozen.

These developments have been a cause for celebration among many Lebanese, but they may also raise questions among the entire political class, including Hezbollah.

Hezbollah, a Shiite political group and militia, has dominated Lebanon for much of the past two decades. But in the past few months, it has suffered numerous setbacks, including the loss of most of its senior members, including its leader Hassan Nasrallah, in its war with Israel, and subsequently the fall of its powerful ally, the Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria. .

“Hezbollah still has legitimacy,” Ziad Majed, a Lebanese political researcher, told Al Jazeera. “He will have to accept being a strong Lebanese party – and it will be strong – like all the other parties, but without having the decision to make war and peace.”

Hezbollah’s hand is cut off

He helped Hezbollah Joseph Aoun He will receive the required number of votes to become president by supporting him in the second round of voting on January 9. But the group, which was planning to support current President Najib Mikati in the vote for prime minister on January 13, abstained from voting after it became clear Nawaf SalamThe former president of the International Court of Justice will win.

Hezbollah MP Muhammad Raad said that the group extended its hand to the nation by voting for Aoun, but Salam’s nomination led to “cutting off the hand.”

The Iran-backed group feels that many of its opponents in the government are exploiting the losses it suffered in Israel’s war on Lebanon.

But in his first speech as prime minister-designate, Salam promised to unite the Lebanese people and spoke about issues that deeply affect the Shiite community after Israel’s war on the country. Israeli attacks on Lebanon have focused mostly on areas with high Shiite populations, even in areas where many local residents said military infrastructure for Hezbollah or its fighters was non-existent, including southern Lebanon, most of the Bekaa Valley and the Beirut suburbs widely referred to as Broadly known as “Hezbollah”. Suburb.

As in Aoun’s speech a few days ago, Salam said he would work to ensure that the Israeli army withdraws “from the last occupied inch of (Lebanese) territory” and rebuild areas affected by devastating Israeli attacks.

He said: “Reconstruction is not just a promise, but a commitment.”

“He is smart enough to find the right ways to try to be inclusive,” Karim Emil Bitar, a professor of international relations at Saint Joseph University in Beirut, told Al Jazeera. He added: “I do not think he will try to exclude the Shiite base from participating in the government and building the state, but this is a decision that the Shiite parties must make.”

But Hezbollah is in a precarious position. For years, Hezbollah and its allies have had enough political and military influence to block decisions they oppose, such as government formations that do not meet their needs. In one of the most famous examples of the group’s power, Hezbollah deployed its fighters on the streets of Beirut in May 2008 after the Lebanese government ordered the dismantling of the group’s communications network, forcing state authorities to back down.

but The fall of the Assad regime in Syria It has made receiving weapons more difficult and removed a key regional ally of the group.

Arms monopoly

Under the terms of the ceasefire with Israel, Hezbollah is supposed to move north of the Litani River, which runs through southern Lebanon from north of Tire in the west to just south of Marjayoun in the east, and the Lebanese army is scheduled to deploy in the south. Lebanon after the Israelis withdrew from its lands.

Hezbollah has said its military infrastructure should be removed from the south only, but Israel recently attacked targets north of the Litani that it said were linked to Hezbollah. However, some officials in Israel and the United States — and even Lebanon — have said that Hezbollah’s military infrastructure should be targeted anywhere in Lebanon. This leaves questions about whether all parties have the same understanding of the ceasefire.

Aoun and Salam spoke of the state’s monopoly on weapons and their proliferation in southern Lebanon, a clear message to Hezbollah that its military superiority may have ended.

Whether Hezbollah accepts this is a different matter. Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem warned on Saturday of the necessity of including Hezbollah in any future government.

Qassem said: “No one can exclude us from effective and influential political participation in Lebanon, as we are an essential element in the composition of the country and its renaissance,” adding that no force was able to “benefit internally from the election results.” The (Israeli) aggression, the political track is separate from the resistance situation (Hezbollah).”

Lebanon’s new leaders have promised to ensure Israel’s withdrawal from every centimeter of southern Lebanon and rebuild its destroyed homes and villages in what analysts believe is an attempt to extend a helping hand to the Shiite community.

Hezbollah is under pressure from its voters in the south, the Bekaa Valley, and the suburbs to rebuild their homes and lives. For this reason, analysts say, Lebanon will need international aid. This may push Hezbollah to accept Lebanon’s new political direction for the time being.

“Either Hezbollah allows rebuilding in a state-led manner that has sufficient legitimacy from Gulf (Arab) donors willing to pump in their money, or it won’t happen,” said Nadim Houry, executive director. He said in the Arab Reform Initiative.

There are signs that despite the rhetoric of some, Hezbollah may be open to a more conciliatory path, at least in the short term.

Qasim Kassir, a political analyst close to Hezbollah, told Al Jazeera, “What is important is to rebuild state institutions, achieve political, financial and economic reform, implement the ceasefire agreement, and follow up on the implementation of the Taif Agreement.” The 1989 agreement aimed at ending the 15-year Lebanese civil war. He added, “The issue of confronting the Israeli enemy is one of the priorities.”

New hope for peace

The partnership between Aoun and Salam signals a move away from Lebanon’s traditional blocs of political power, as well as the billionaire prime minister image of some of Salam’s predecessors, including Saad Hariri and current interim Prime Minister Mikati.

Many Lebanese said that Salam’s appointment as prime minister in particular was a blessing for the country and its hopes for reforms.

“I am very optimistic,” said Dalal Moawad, a Lebanese journalist and writer who considers Salam a mentor. “He embodies the justice, accountability and rule of law that we want to see in Lebanon.”

Bitar said: “What we can say is that Nawaf Salam’s nomination certainly bodes well for Lebanon’s future.” “Most Lebanese are optimistic for the first time in two decades, or at least for the first time since 2019.”

Salam’s name first began circulating for the prime ministership shortly after the mass protests that broke out on October 17, 2019. He is widely viewed as someone who, despite belonging to a prominent political family, includes former prime ministers Saeb Salam and Tammam among his relatives. Peace – outside the traditional political oligarchy.

In his first speech as Prime Minister-designate, Salam spoke about building a “modern, civil, just state.”

He also spoke about achieving “justice, security, progress and opportunity.”

He specifically spoke about justice for the victims of the Beirut port explosion on August 4, 2020 and the 2019 banking crisis when depositors were suddenly denied access to their money and no officials or banks were held accountable.

Lebanese media reported on Tuesday that the investigation into the explosion, which was derailed by Lebanese political groups including Hezbollah, would resume soon.

Future struggle

Despite the focus of many on Hezbollah, all of Lebanon’s powerful parties have taken advantage of the system to avoid accountability or obstruct the political agendas they oppose.

The next challenge facing Aoun and Salam will be to fulfill their statements in the face of a political system built on sectarianism.

Majid said that Lebanon’s sectarian system “requires new approaches,” adding that Lebanon needs a monopoly on violence by state institutions and weapons and “a strategy to defend Lebanon from real Israeli hostilities.”

Under the current sectarian system, Lebanon is run by a handful of political parties and leaders who enjoy deep support and control over state institutions. These leaders, who belong to religious sects in Lebanon, are accused of using these resources and their political power to build their own patronage networks, and hold people accountable to them and not to the state.

These forces have become entrenched in their positions and resistant to change.

“We need to make fundamental structural reforms in Lebanon to the political system, and I don’t know if that is doable,” Hilal Khashan, a professor of political science at the American University of Beirut and a former colleague of Salam, told Al Jazeera.

Appointing strong or new leaders to positions of power is not all that is needed to root out entrenched corruption and nepotism. Salam, for example, is not the first technocrat to assume a prominent role in Lebanon.

“The difference is that in the past, technocrats came to power when the political class wanted to procrastinate,” Houry said. “They never gained any legitimacy, which depended on the political class, so they did not have the capacity or support to implement most of their reforms.”

But today, Lebanon’s myriad crises mean that the political class knows it has to allow some reforms to happen — even if it is likely to continue to oppose systemic changes.

Salam and Aoun will have to address issues of economic stability, security and national dialogue without isolating any community and in managing foreign relations, including Israeli aggression. The range of issues to be addressed is long and arduous.

But analysts said that Salam and Aoun have a unique opportunity. The collapse of the Assad regime, continued interference in Lebanese affairs, the weakening of Iran, and the international community’s willingness to provide foreign aid and support to Lebanon’s new leaders mean that there is support for the reform agenda that did not exist before. there.

Even under positive circumstances, confronting Lebanon’s entrenched and resilient political class will remain an uphill endeavour. Many analysts said that although they were positive about Salam’s appointment, they had doubts about whether anyone could uproot the Lebanese political system.

However, Khashan said Salam “is the right man for this period.”