On July 24, 2025, Parrart article on US government bonds and TLT ETF that track debt bonds, concluded with the following:
Since the beginning of 2024, the range has highlighted the levels of technical support and resistance. If the high levels of US debt lead to sale in the bond market, TLT is likely to go. However, if the debt is not important and the United States can reduce spending and grow out of debt through economic initiatives, TLT is likely to gather. Currently, long -term interest rates and TLT remain in the trading scope, closer to their lowest levels from the highest levels since early 2024, and they are waiting for the next economic shoe. Expect a decrease in short -term rates, but the long -term price track depends on the success of the current economic initiatives.
The 30-year-old US Treasury bonds were traded at the level of 113-12 on July 23, when TLT ETF reached $ 85.97 per share. The bonds and TLT have risen up since July 23.
Treasury bonds were traded in the United States for 30 years in a narrow range in 2024 and 2025, near the bottom end of the declining direction that has been present since the height of the epidemic in March 2020.
The monthly graph for seven years highlights the decrease from the highest level in March 2020 from 191-22 to the lowest level in October 2023 from 107-04. Since December 2023, long bond futures have been circulated in a range of 110-01 to 127-22. At the level of 117-10 in September 2025, the future of bonds is less than the mid-trading point for about two years.
While future contracts for bond color are higher than July 23, they remain in a narrow range with long -term interest rates continued.
IShaares 20 Year Treasury Bond Etf (TLT) is a very liquid product that tracks the long -term interest rates of the US government.
The monthly graph for seven years shows that TLT tracks futures for long bond color.
The graph highlights the decrease from the highest level in March 2020 at 179.70 dollars to the lowest level in October 2023 at 82.42 dollars per share. Since December 2023, TLT ETF has been trading $ 83.30 to $ 101.64 per share. At 89.40 dollars in September 2025, TLT ETF is under the mid -trading point for about two years.
Although TLT ETF is higher than the level on July 23, it remains in a narrow range with long -term interest rates continued.
Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve, indicated that the central bank is ready to reduce the rate of short -term federal reserve funds from a mid -point by 4.375 % at the annual Jackson Hall Association in August 2025. The head of the Powell Markets said, “With policy in restrictions, basic expectations and the variable risk balance may require modifying our position on politics“After leaving the federal reserve funds unchanged during 2025, the central bank indicated that the price reduction on the FOMC meeting from the period from 17 to 18 September.
Meanwhile, President Trump was not shy of his feelings that the Federal Reserve.It is too lateWith the discounts. Treasury Secretary Scott Payett said that the rates should be less than 150 basis points, saying: “I think we can enter into a series of discounts in prices here, starting with a 50th rate reduction in September. If you look at any model, we are likely to be 150, 175 on a lower basis.President Trump believes that the rates should decrease more. The latest economic data on employment and inflation indicates an increase in the possibility of reducing the rate of 50 -point feeding funds on September 18.
Consumer price index data from July showed that inflation remains high over the goal of the Federal Reserve by 2 %. The last personal consumption expenses index in July, the preferred inflation index, showed that the basic inflation has continued at a rate of 2.9 % seasonal rate. The Federal Reserve did not reduce the average short -term federal reserve bank rate in 2025 due to concerns that commercial policy and definitions will lead to an increase in prices and inflationary pressure. However, inflation decreased over the past few years, when the PCE reading was above 3 % of August 2023 to January 2024, more than 4 % from December 2022 to July 2023, most of which north from 5 % from December 2021 to November 2022.
However, with an enlargement of approximately 1 % higher than the optimal goal for the federal reserve coach, economic conditions can curb the central bank enthusiasm for price discounts, leading to a reduction in 25 basis points on September 18, 2025. At this stage, the discussion is more than 25 or 50 points, and I believe that the Federal Reserve will make a statement and reduce rates of half a percentage point.
Meanwhile, the short -term money price cuts will not necessarily lead to a long -term low interest rates in the United States. While the Federal Reserve controls short -term rates as an initial cash tool, long -term rates are controlled by market forces. Therefore, the American credit classification, American debt levels by about 37.3 trillion dollars, foreign demand for US government bonds, and other factors will determine the course of interest rates in the United States in the long run.
Since the effect of identification filters through the American economy, inflationary pressures will determine a less resistant path for US government bond prices and interest rates along the return curve.
The Trump administration will replace President Powell in 2026, and the inserted central bank leader is likely to reflect the administration’s desire to decrease short -term and long -term rates.
Moreover, any unexpected events that cause the journey to quality can raise the prices of bonds and reduce the long -term return in the event of a repeated date. The American bond and currency market remains the most stable for global reserves, which prefer the upward trend in turbulent times.
With long bonds and TLT less than the mid-trading range over the past two years, the possibilities prefer to recover if technical support levels are at 110 and 107-04. American bonds can gather, prefer to dispense with risk at current support and resistance levels to the upward trend, even if the range remains intact in the coming months until 2026.
On the date of publication, Andrew Hisht was not (either directly or indirectly) in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article are only for media purposes. This article was originally published on Barchart.com
