Why will Tehran not prevent the Strait of Hormuz

With increased tensions after Israeli strikes on IranFears have returned to the emergence that Tehran could be discussed by targeting one of the most prominent oil arteries in the world – the Strait of Hermoz.

The Strait of Hermoz, which connects the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea, He sees nearly 20 million barrels per day Of oil products and oil pass through, which represents nearly five global oil shipments. Any step to ban it will rip Through energy markets.

However, market monitors believe that the comprehensive turmoil of global oil flows by closing the waterway is unlikely, and it may be physically impossible.

Ellen father, co -founder of Washington Evotors, said that there is a “clear benefit” that comes with a hindrance to the passage of oil through the hormonal strait, especially given how the Iranian oil infrastructure is not targeted directly. She added that any such action is likely to lead to more revenge.

She also warned that any significant increase in oil prices caused by a closure could withdraw reactions from the largest oil agent in Iran: China.

“China does not want the flow of oil from the Persian Gulf in any way, and China does not want the price of oil to rise. Therefore, they will bring the full weight of their economic strength to Iran,” a father explained.

China is The number one importer for Iranian oilIt is said that he represents More than three quarters of its oil exports. The second largest economy in the world is also The largest commercial partner in Iran.

“The disruption of the channel may be more great than the grace of Tehran, given that most of the daily consumption goods in Iran through this road:” their friends will suffer more than their enemies … so it is very difficult to see that happens. “

“It is not in their interest to cause problems because they will suffer first.”

Iran in 2018 Threatened to close the Strait of Hermoz When tensions rose after the American withdrawal from the nuclear deal and the re -imposition of sanctions. Before that, according to what was reported, another major threat came in 2011 and 2012, when Iranian officials, including the head of the will, Muhammad Risa Rahimi, were Beware of a possible closure if the West slapped more sanctions On oil exports on its nuclear program.

Hermoz strait, which ranges from 35 to 60 miles (55 to 95 km), Tie Persian Gulf and the Arab Sea.

The idea of ​​closing the Hormuz waterway was a repeated rhetorical tool but was never disposed of, as analysts say it is simply not possible.

Al -Hajji said: “Let’s be real in the Strait of Hormuz. First of all, most of them are in Amman, not in Iran. Two, it is wide enough so that the Iranians cannot close it.”

Likewise, Washington Evotor “Wadi” indicated that although many ships pass through Iranian waters, ships still go beyond alternative roads across the United Arab Emirates and Oman.

“Any blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, it will be the option of” last resort “for Iran and it is possible that it will depend on the military participation between us and Iran.”

Helma Croft’s RBC Capital Markets suggested that although there may be some disturbance, the siege on a large scale was unlikely.

“We understand that it will be very difficult for Iran to close the strait for a long time due to the presence of the Fifth Fleet in Bahrain. However, Iran can still launch attacks on tankers and stimulate the strait to disable marine traffic,” said Klobal Commodity Research.

US President Trump Warning against potential military action Dar said that negotiations with Iran on its nuclear program are collapsing, but it is not certain whether these threats aim to raise the shares of the United States’ talks, Iran or simply to increase pressure on the negotiating table.

Israel carried out a wave of air strikes in Iran early Friday morning local time, claiming that the attacks were aimed at facilities related to the nuclear program in Tehran.

According to the Iranian government media, the strikes were killed by Muhammad Hussein Baghri, head of the Iranian Armed Forces, along with Hussein Salami, Commander of the Iranian Islamic Islamic Guard.

While closing the strait is still very unlikely, the escalating conflict has prompted some to think even about the low possibility.

“(Closing the strait) is a type of extremist scenario, although we are in a severe situation,” said Amin Bakr, President of the Middle East and OPEC+ in Kepler.

“That is why I do not put this option completely away from the table. We need to think about it.”

Raw future contracts Up to 13 % After Israel fired air strikes against Iran early on Friday. The global standard Brent Futures increased by 6.5 % at $ 73.88 a barrel as of 4.30 pm at Singapore, while The West Texas is Medium It was trading 6.7 % at $ 72.57 a barrel.