Why will Britain remain after Britain’s exit from the European Union always lost to Europe

On Monday, we will see something between mixing exchange paper and skipping as the UK tries to restore its steps on the road to Europe. The detailed content of the agreed “re -control” at the European Union summit, and the outcome of those who approved what has approved, will absorb most of the attention. More importantly, what you say about the deeper political transformations required to obtain this limit and tensions that will be from where things go from here.

The delivery of a trade deal in the United Kingdom in the past few weeks – with India and the United States – may be more beneficial to relations with the European Union than these two countries. The full details did not appear, but it seems clear that these deals exclude anything that may close the possibility of deeper relationships in the United Kingdom and the European Union. In particular, the UK has held the line on strict food standards for us permissible beef in the country free of customs tariffs. Organizational change has been reduced.

The presence of two ligaments in the bag will also provide important political capital for Prime Minister Sir Kerr Starmer to reach an agreement with the European Union. He can now reject fake criticisms that work weighs to global trade opportunities provided by Britain’s exit from the European Union with concrete evidence. It can even with some reasonable to reaffirm its slogan that the country does not need to choose between the United States and the European Union.

But there is rubbing. If he does not need to choose, this is not because he can get it in both directions, but because he and the United Kingdom did not choose.

The best scenario of cases for Monday is an agreement in principle on all different issues under discussion. We hope that the defense and security agreement will be hit. In parallel, the two sides may improve economic relations with the obligations of veterinary and food standards and plants to alleviate border checks; The easiest travel and work rights for youth and professionals; Merging energy trading policies and harmonization of emissions; Likewise, they are understood to reach fisheries.

Companies on both sides of the channel Pleading Until these agreements are made. The European Union and the United Kingdom defines the value of showing that they can work together in the face of geopolitical threats. But even if this produces a deal, the Brexit’s deep contradiction will not be resolved.

The summit should be transferred three important lessons. The first is that any success that appears will be because the UK has moved – not always on the details, but on the principles. There will be a form of “dynamic alignment”, continuing to adapt in the United Kingdom with the development of European Union rules – for all the United Kingdom and not only Northern Ireland. The Starmer government for good will be buried the absolute opposition of the European Court of Justice on UK laws. It will start accepting that reducing the flow of people between the United Kingdom and the European Union is good for both economists, and not honor from Britain to the continent.

The second lesson is that most of the gains will also be the UK. The reintegration into parts of the unified market – food and plants, energy and some areas of humble work – will activate some economic damage caused by Britain’s exit from the European Union. This is largely the function of size: when the economy integrates with six times its size, the smallest one benefits much more.

The upper levels of the UK government may accept this fact; However, they are still not ready to present this argument to the public. As long as the benefits are considered concessions whenever they flow from alignment instead of unilateralism, the discussion in the United Kingdom will remain at the adolescent level.

Third, this reveals that being a “sovereign equal” of the European Union is very similar to a country that joins – or leaving – the union, as its choice is to accept or reject the list of terms for the European Union.

This “reset” is evidence that the UK will always remain a stir in this relationship, is never sentenced to free itself from the endless bargaining of politics, but without a truly equal status of the member state (or in fact a great place in a large one). Even Norway, with the full unified market membership, was forced to enter into dozens of additional linking agreements.

It was granted, the United Kingdom in particular; It is very large and strong for the European Union to treat it with Hamid neglect. It is necessary to participate, but it can never be provided with a special treatment – better than its members – that would meet all the demands of the United Kingdom.

Warm words on Monday will not change the fact that European policy will remain permanently unstable as long as the UK remains outside the European Union. This alone will not ensure his return in the end, but frustration on both sides of the channel will continue until it happens.

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