Why not worrying China Trump’s commercial war as in 2018 | Trade War News

Taipei, Taiwan – While US President Donald Trump begins a new trade war with China, analysts say he will face a stronger and more willing opponent in Beijing compared to his first term in his position.

Since his return to the White House in January, Trump has already imposed a A 20 percent tariff for Chinese importsQuoted from the alleged failure of Beijing to curb the matteent of the export of the deadly opioid fentanel to the United States.

The tariff comes at the top of the previous tasks imposed by Trump and the previous United States President Joe Biden On more than $ 400 billion in Chinese goods.

After condemning the latest American definitions as “bullying” and “intimidation”, Beijing responded Last week, by announcing the customs tariff from 10 to 15 percent on many American agricultural commodities, including corn, beef, pork, dairy products and soybeans.

The definitions, which came into effect on Monday, were followed by Beijing Announcement last month Through the customs tariffs by 10 percent on crude oil, agricultural machines, pick -up trucks and some cars, and a 15 percent tariff on coal and liquefied natural gas.

“If the war is what the United States wants, whether it is an introductory war, a commercial war or any other type of war, we are ready to fight to the end,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jiang told correspondents last week.

While the measures of the two nipples remember the first commercial war of Trump in 2018, Washington and Beijing faces completely different conditions today from seven years.

As for the two largest economies in the world in its separation from recent years, which reduces the dependency of the mutual and the effectiveness of the impact of definitions, according to analysts.

Christopher Bedor, deputy director of China Research in a crazy in Beijing, said the latest definitions should be “somewhat management” for China, and indicated that it is much lower than the 60 percent rate that Trump threatened during his campaign.

“I do not want to reduce the effect – this is nearly three times the effective tariff rates of Chinese goods that come to the United States, so they are great,” Bidour told Al -Jazeera.

“But Chinese exports to the United States are a very modest share of its public economy,” said Bidor.

Low trade share

China’s share of the total American trade – measured as a total of exports and imports – has decreased from 15.7 percent to 10.9 percent between 2018 and 2024, according to Bloomberg.

During the same period, the US share of China’s total trade decreased from 13.7 percent to 11.2 percent.

Lin Song, the chief economist in Greater China in Ing, said Beijing is unlikely to panic due to the definitions – at least at the present time.

“While avoiding this type of commercial friction, it was better, it’s something planned, so I will not say that there is a sense of panic,” Song told Al Jazerera.

“However, with every tariff escalation, there will inevitably be parts of trade that becomes viable and companies that will be affected.”

Lynn said that there is another factor that reduces the impact of definitions, which is that Chinese exporters such as Shein and TEMU have found success in selling low -cost commodities directly to customers by taking advantage of exempting tariffs on charges of less than $ 800.

Beijing has constantly cleared measures to isolate the economy from any commercial shocks.

In the “two sites” meetings last week in Beijing, the National People’s Congress-the highest group of governmental authority in China-announced many financial stimulus measures, including raising debt level to local governments and the release of 1.3 trillion yuan ($ 179 billion) in long-term treasury links.

Carsten Hulls, a Chinese economist at Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, said the local Beijing movements gave her a major insulation against the demands of the United States.

“Even Trump’s complete effect on imports from China – barely realistic in an era, for example, the largest part of the iPhone in China – larger than a small part of a percentage point in Chinese gross domestic product,” said Hones to the island of the island.

“For an authoritarian leadership designed to offer strength, this is not likely to be sufficient to join what might look forward to the Chinese audience such as” peace talks “with the foreign aggressor.

Some analysts believe that although it is stronger compared to 2018, Beijing still wants to negotiate with Trump – at least at the present time.

“Avoid escalation”

Even Rogers, a food and agricultural analyst in the Beijing Research Group in the Beijing Research Group, said that one of the most powerful signals that Chinese officials open to talking about their opening tour of the customs tariff was relatively moderate and limited to a limited number of goods, which indicates a strategy to “avoid escalation”.

“Revenge indicates that although the Chinese government does not intend to take lying commercial pressure, it will not be challenged by an increasing commercial conflict as it can make the reaction the early amounts of the agreement more difficult,”

“Instead, by applying moderate definitions to a short list of major industries, Beijing encourages political pressure in the red states that are major sources of atom, soybeans, fine corn and other agricultural products that hope to bring Trump to the table.”

Bay said that Beijing may roam the “second stage” deal similar to the “first stage” deal, which was concluded with Trump in 2020 to end the first trade war.

under The first stage is a dealChina has pledged to buy $ 200 billion of US goods and services, including agricultural products, over two years.

However, Beijing has only achieved about 58 percent of this amount after trade was removed by the Covid-19s, according to the Institute of Economic Research in Peterson.

John Gong, a professor of economics at the University of Business and International Economy in Beijing, has agreed that China can bear pressure but is also ready to negotiate.

“The government in China, of course, is worried, but it will not retreat in a humiliating way. They like to negotiate a deal, but if they cannot, they will have” a position of information technology. “

Meanwhile, some analysts believe that Trump is at risk of excessive operation of his hand.

During the last trade war, Trump directed his focus only on China, but since his return to office, he put his attention in other countries, including Mexico and Canada, in an attempt to reduce the American trade deficit.

The American president also moved at lightning speed.

Within almost a month, Trump launched a customs tariff for the goods of $ 1.4 trillion, compared to the definitions of imports of $ 380 billion in 2018 and 2019, according to an analysis conducted by Erica York, Vice -President of the Federal Tax Policy at the Washington -based research tank.

It is not clear, however, to what extent will the Trump tariff will stick.

Just two days after a comprehensive tariff on Canada and Mexico on March 4, Trump announced that he would delay duties on many imports until April 2.

“There are a lot of things that may be mistaken in Trump now, and to be honest, there are some reasonable possibilities that you have to retract a lot of these definitions because the local economic consequences of the United States are very bad,” Berrdkal said.

“The approach (China) is: Let’s wait and see, apply more financial stimulation to mitigate the effect.”