US President Donald Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi held a joint press conference in the Eastern Chamber of the White House in Washington, DC, on February 13, 2025.
Andrew Caballero -Rynolds | AFP | Gety pictures
Stock Market in India A little panic showed a day after the US announcement 50 % tariff On the goods of the country and secondary sanctions threatened to continue the oil trade with Russia.
Sensex, the standard of blue chips in India, ended today 0.1 % higher on August 7.
From bureaucrats to companies, there is a wide consensus in India that the recent escalation of the United States is nothing but a pressure tactic of rapid commercial conversations. However, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi now has something that he had no, even one day before: supporting the Indian opposition to respond.
Rahul Gandhi, the leader of the largest opposition party in India, the Indian National Congress, described the punishment for the purchase of Russian oil as “economic blackmail” by Trump.
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Consequently, Indian negotiators may become stronger, especially in talks on areas that directly affect farmers in the country.
Moody said on Thursday morning: “India will never give up the interests of farmers in the country, fishermen and livestock breeders. I know this will cost me personally, but I am ready,” Modi said on Thursday morning.
Economic impact
According to most estimates, the cost of losing trade with the United States is important for India but does not prevent.
The pessimistic appreciation is from Morgan Stanley. It says that if all goods are subject to a 50 % duty, it is possible that the effect on the gross domestic product in India is 60 basis points, or about $ 23 billion at current exchange rates.
On the other hand, it is expected that the cost of allowing us to export dairy to India – one of the most controversial issues – is expected to cost 1.8 rupees ($ 20 billion) alone, according to SBI Research, one of the largest bank unit in the country. SBI said that more than half of this burden will hit farmers directly in the form of low retail prices, unless the government compensates for the loss.
Indian exports to the United States
| sector | Exports to the United States in 2024 | A share of India’s exports to the United States |
|---|---|---|
| Electronics | 11.1 billion dollars | 14.30 % |
| Gemstones and jewelry | 9.9 billion dollars | 12.80 % |
| pharmaceutical | 8.1 billion dollars | 10.40 % |
| Nuclear reactors, parts, machines | 6.2 billion dollars | 8 % |
| Refined petroleum products | 5.8 billion dollars | 7.50 % |
source: The Ministry of Commerce in India
Industrial lobby spokeswoman told CNBC-TV18 on Thursday, while Indian cuisine exporters, who sell most of their products to the United States, may lose approximately $ 3 billion annually when speeding up 25 %, according to analysts in Morgan Stanley.
Meanwhile, the intense fabric industry in India expects to move away from business of $ 5 billion from India in the next few months due to definitions.
The US high duties will also affect India’s ability to attract foreign direct investment (FDI), according to ARVIND Sanger from GeosPhere Capital Management, and a New York -based broker.
India’s position is strengthened by the fact that more than 60 % of GDP comes from local consumption.
Indian The rupee will be the immediate lossAccording to Mhahish Patel, who oversees more than 3 rupees (35 billion dollars) of financial assets in the Mumbai -based Aditya MUTUAL fund as president of investment. However, Patel also pointed out that the rupee that settles at lower levels against the US dollar may compensate for some of the successful people on the Indian exporters, and the effect may be visible with a few months delay.
A snapshot of India trade with the United States
| Total bilateral trade in 2024 | 212.3 billion dollars |
| Goods trade | 129 billion dollars |
| Services trade | 83.4 billion dollars |
| American deficit in merchandise trade with India | 45.8 billion dollars |
| The surplus of the United States in the service trade with India | 102 million dollars |
source: Representative of trade in the United States
About 40 % of the entire India trade with the United States in services, which is not even a discussion point as much as the United States exports more services to India than imported. Trump also did not pay attention to the call to restrictions on H1-b visaIt is a path that is mostly used by Indian citizens who are looking to fill the gaps of talent – especially in the technology sector – in the United States
The middle land in India
Amid Trump’s threat of secondary sanctions on India, Modi plans to visit China since 2018. Near the following American envoy Steve Whittvak, National Security Adviser in India, he visits Russia in an attempt to follow the interests of India through diplomacy.
At the same time, the Indian Ministry of Foreign Affairs struck what our hypocrisy in ignoring its trade with Russia, which continued in the war in Ukraine, is a claim by itself Trump is implementing aside, but he did not deny. It is also important to note that Indian companies have shares in many Russian oil fields.
Trump’s commercial advisor, Peter Navarro, also claimed that India uses dollars from trade with America to pay the price of Russian oil, but most of the oil trade in India with Russia has settled in Drams, the United Arab Emirates (United Arab Emirates), according to CNBC-TV18.
India was more willing than Brazil and China to find a central land with the United States
The government has already reduced duties on American motorcycle imports, Bourbon, Ethernet keys, artificial flavor essence, fish hydroles, to name a few. It has also allowed Timing To create a store in Mumbai and withdraw the equation tax on Internet giants, widely known as Google Tax.
India has also increased the purchases of oil from the United States by 120 % in the past six months, source In the Indian government, she told CNBC-TV18, which was one of Trump’s basic demands when Moody visited the White House in February 2025.
However, since then, Trump moved the goal goals from just reducing the trade deficit of the United States with India to the relationship of South Asia’s country with Russia.
Watch and wait?
Trump said that India’s purchases of Russian oil are why it is now facing a 50 % tariff, as this full rate was imposed 21 days after Trump’s executive order signed on Wednesday.
Nevertheless, the New Delhi tone and speech were more moderate than the phrases coming from Beijing or Rio de Janeiro, but also stick to its red lines. A government official told CNBC-TV18 that India is keen to use 21 days before finding a profitable position for both sides.
While the Indian government has not hinted at any escalation at the end, some experts believe that India has some legal options at its disposal.
“It is important to talk to our business partners and similar countries in thinking who have been subjected to similar business by the United States,” said Angeli Brasad, a former Indian Ambassador at the World Trade Organization.
“Only when we meet, we decide the strategy, there will be some possible measures effectively, because there is strength in the numbers.”
The fact that Trump is scheduled to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin In the coming daysMeanwhile, he explains that the United States’s priority is to end Russia’s war on Ukraine.
If there is a breakthrough in the talks between Trump and Putin and Ukrainian President Folodimir Zellinski, oil purchases in India from Russia are no longer a problem.
Incentive on India to watch and wait, instead of rushing with concessions, there is there.
-Parikshette Luthara, head of the Delhi office at CNBC-TV18, contributed to this report.
SRIram Iyer leads the CNBC-TV18 digital team as an executive editor. He has more than 18 years of experience in all Indian and international ports, starting from Indian Express to Reuters and club business.
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