Medicare’s feature may decrease to 48 % of the market in 2026. – Getty Images
Medicare Advantage, the special alternative to the traditional medical care plan, finally witnessing hiccups in the growth of the narrow subscribers.
The join of Medicare Advantage is expected to be 34 million subscribers in 2026, a decrease from 34.9 million in 2025, according to the expectations of the plan provided by medical care centers and medical stomach. This represents a decrease from 50 % of the total medical care market in 2025 to about 48 % in 2026.
However, the CMS itself expects to join the Medicare Advantage “will be more powerful than the expectations of the plans and that the registration will be stable.” But even a “stable” represents a contradiction with the growth seen in recent years – Medicare Advantage had 25 % of the market in 2010 and gained its share in the market every year.
“If joining is stable or declining, it will be a break from what we have seen for decades,” said Matthew Fidler, a senior fellow at the Brockengs Health Foundation Center.
Expectations come at a time when the open registration of the Medicare-approach-from October 15 to December 7 of each year begins when the beneficiaries can review and update their health and drug coverage for the next year. With the high cost of health care, beneficiaries may consider ways to reduce costs. All this comes in the wake of the closure of the federal government, which was partially operated through a confrontation between the two parties, as Democrats refused to support a Republican bill they say it will make it difficult for Americans to bear the costs of health care.
Medicare Advantage plans offer additional benefits such as vision and dental coverage, but this comes with a limited choice of doctors and specialized referral requirements. Medicare feature also annual costs outside the pocket.
“Medicare Advantage has joined together with increased interest richness in recent years, but tankers are currently focusing on profitability than growth. Although the features of the MA plan are less generous, we expect to choose more The elderly is the original Medicare and Medicare Advantage instead.
“I expect this to be a long -term trend where more elderly realize the negative aspects of Medicare Advantage plans, from the limited doctors’ networks to prior abandonment requirements. Medicare Advantage plans have been significantly marketed by non -accurate mediators, but original medical care with an attachment plan is a superior option for most people who can withstand one costs, ” Blumenfeld-Gantz. “In a world with complete information and rational choice, Medicare Advantage represents much lower than 48 % of the total recordings. This is the world where we move slowly.”
Congress Budget Office (CBO) expected Medicare Advantage to control about 64 % of the market by 2034.
The insurance companies were behind the Medicare Advant market Exit from some unbearable markets or stopping plans Amid the higher medical expenses, it is expected between subscribers and changes in government payments that pressed the margins.
“Some of the plans are slightly declining,” said Stephen Zuckerman, an institute colleague at the Health Institute, said. “But it is not a major collapse of the market in any shape, shape or shape.”
The market is still profitable because the government is paying 22 % for every medical care registrar, or about 83 billion dollars per year, which if this person has joined traditional medical care, according to what it said. Consultative Committee for the Pay of Medical CareThe Independent Federal Agency that advises the US Congress on issues affecting the medical care program.
In the long run, analysts expect Medicare Advantage to continue its market share.
“MA is still very attractive to people with benefits and comprehensive shopping, and I think it will remain attractive to move forward. I expect to join or continue to grow. I will be surprised if he really refuses,” said Jenny Vogelston Benik, Assistant Director of Medicare Policy at KFF. “I expect to continue to increase, but not at the same rate that happened from 2018 to 2023.”
In general, access to Medicare Advantage plans will remain stable for 2026, with more than 99 % of Medicare beneficiaries to reach at least one plan, and 97 % of Medicare beneficiaries who have access to 10 or more plan options, according to CMS. CMS said the total number of Medicare Advantage plans at the national level will decrease slightly from 5633 in 2025 to 5600 in 2026.
While 2026 expectations are purely expectations that can serve as BLIP, Fiedler expects the medicare advantage market to grow in the long run.
“The best of my glow is that unless we see a real change in politics in politics, we will see some continuous increase in the MA share in the market,” said Fidler.
