Why does Ukraine win the war?

The writer is a historian, philosopher and author

Unlike the narration led by Russian propaganda, Ukraine has so far won the war. Even US President Donald Trump, who attended Ukrainian President Voludmir Zelinski in February 2025, that he must back down from Russian demands because “you do not have cards”, announced this week that “Ukraine, with the support of the European Union, in a position that enables it to fight and win.”

When the conflict began in 2014, Ukraine looked completely powerless in the face of Russian aggression, and the Russians invaded the Crimea and other parts of eastern Ukraine. The war entered a more intense stage on February 24, 2022, when Russia launched a comprehensive attack, with the aim of subjecting Ukraine as a whole and ending its existence as an independent country.

At that time, the Russian leadership and many observers all over the world expected Russia to invade Kiev and defeat the Ukrainian army decisively within a few days. Even Western supporters in Ukraine were not so sure of Ukraine’s resistance’s chances that they offered President Zelinski’s evacuation and his team and helping them to establish a government in exile.

But Zelenskyy chose to stay in Kyiv and fight, and according to what was reported, the Americans were told, “I need ammunition, not a journey.” The Ukrainian forces that surpassed the world surprised by repelling the Russian attack on Kyiv. After that, the Ukrainian army won a confrontation in the end of the summer of 2022, two major victories in the areas of Kharkif and Khairsson, and liberated many of the lands conducted by the Russians in the first stage of their conquest.

Since then, despite the limited gains by both sides, the confrontation lines have not moved much. The Russians are trying to create an impression that they are progressing unnecessarily, but the truth is that since the spring of 2022, they have failed to overcome any goal of great strategic importance such as the cities of Kyiv, Kharkiv or Kheson.

In 2025, at a cost ranging between 200,000 to 300,000 soldiers who were killed and wounded, the Russian army has so far been able to capture a thin slice of the border area that is at the forefront, according to more reliable sources, to about 0.6 percent of the total lands of Ukraine. At the rate they were going in 2025, the theoretical Russians will take about 100 years and tens of millions of losses to conquer the rest of Ukraine. Indeed, in August 2025, Russia controls less From the lands of Ukraine from what it was in August 2022.

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The situation is mentioned by the Western Front In the First World War, when the cruel generals sacrificed tens of thousands of soldiers to get a few kilometers of muddy rubble. National newspapers often hide the size of these foolishness by printing maps that have been claimed to show the main developments. But the most important data in these maps was its measure. As historian Toby Thaker pointed out, the First World War newspapers are often used “widely” that made “progress” seem to be superficially impressive, but any smart reader could have seen it … it was unimportant. It is the same with the latest Russian developments.

For Ukraine, it is a well -made military logical in making tactical retreats and maintaining its power and the lives of its soldiers, while allowing the Russians to bleed themselves by escalating the expensive attacks to achieve minimal gains. The truth is that Ukraine managed to fight Russia to a dead end.

As retired Australian Major General Mick Ryan recently wrote, it seems that if more than three years of invasion of Iraq in 2003, the United States managed to obtain only 20 percent of the country while maintaining a million victims in this process. Does anyone see this as an American victory?

At the sea, the Ukrainian achievement was equally impressive. On February 24, 2022, the Russian Black Sea Fleet had a full maritime superiority, and it appears that Ukraine has no way to confront it. One of the most famous incidents occurred on that day on the island of the snake. The pioneer from the Russian Black Sea fleet, the cruiser MoscowI sent a radio message to the small garrison, saying, “I am a Russian warship. I suggest you to put your arms and give up to avoid the abolition of blood and unnecessary blood.” In response, the garrison sent a message “a Russian warship, go to yourself.”

Although the Russians quickly conquered the island of the snake, at the end of June 2022, the Ukrainians recovered the island. By that time, and Moscow Many other Russian ships were at the bottom of the Black Sea. By creating innovative missiles and drones, Ukrainians managed to neutralize Russian maritime superiority, changed the nature of the naval war, and led the remaining Russian Black Sea fleet to search for shelter in safe ports away from the front.

In the air, also, Russia failed. While in its 12 -day war against Iran in June 2025, Israel won the control of the Iranian sky within approximately 36 hours without losing a single manned plane, Russia has so far failed to control the sky of Ukraine. The Russian Air Force was exposed to Shalian’s losses – not the least in the Ukrainian strike on the strategic bomber fleet in Russia in June.

Russia’s reaction was to rely on long -range missiles and drones to intimidate Ukrainian cities. Ukraine refrained from responding to its type, and largely avoided hitting civilian targets in Russia, but Ukrainian drones showed a great ability to hit mills and infrastructure, especially oil refineries, hundreds of kilometers inside Russia.

The Ukrainians have achieved all this without any direct military intervention from abroad. So far, the only third party that entered the war is North Korea, which has sent more than 10,000 soldiers to fight for Russia. NATO countries have provided tremendous support in weapons and other resources, but no forces in NATO officially participated in the actual fighting.

It should also be noted that before February 24, 2022 and after a long time, NATO countries refused to provide Ukraine with many types of more advanced heavy weapons and restrict the use of others. Some of these restrictions are still valid.

Thus, in 2022, Ukrainians won the victories in Kyiv, Kharkiv and Kheson with limited weapons only. If they were given full support from the beginning, they may win the war by late 2022 or summer in 2023, before Russia could rebuild its economy in the army and its war.

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In 2025, the weakest link in Ukraine’s defenses She still lies in the minds of her Western friends. Since Russia has failed to obtain air and maritime superiority or penetrate the Ukrainian defenses on the ground, the Russian strategy seeks to excel the Ukrainian position by attacking the will of Americans and Europeans.

By spreading propaganda that Russian victory is inevitable, the Russians hope that the Americans and Europeans will lose their heart, withdraw their support from Ukraine and be forced to surrender. Understanding this propaganda will be a disaster not only for Ukraine, but for NATO countries that will lose a lot of credibility, as well as the best defense of the increasing Russian threats.

As Russia continues to expand its military scope and economy of the war, Europe is scrambling to re -deport, but in the meantime, the largest and most experienced combat power between the Russian army, Warsao, Berlin or Paris is the Ukrainian army. Both Polish, German and French armies have about 200,000 soldiers, most of whom did not see the fighting. In contrast, the Ukrainian army has nearly a million soldiers, most of them old warriors.

Two weeks later, Russian jetal incursions in Estonia and Russian drones on Poland and Romania (and perhaps also Denmark), Europeans must think about the fact that if Russia attacked Europe tomorrow, and the United States chooses to remain out of the fighting, the largest military assets in Europe will be the Ukrainian army. The US military, too, has a lot to learn from the experience of the battlefield in Ukraine and the advanced arms industry. Especially in the field of drone, the innovations of Ukraine and the study of data make it a pioneer in the world. This may be part of the reason that President Trump has recently become more supportive for Ukraine. He loves to support the winners.

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It is impossible to know how the war will developBecause it depends on future decisions. But on a decisive one hand, the Ukrainian victory is already decisive and irreversible. The war is the continuation of politics by other means. The war does not win by the side that exceeds more lands, destroys more cities, or kills more people. The war is winning by the side that achieves its political goals. In Ukraine, it is already clear that Putin has failed to achieve his main goal of the war – the destruction of the Ukrainian nation.

In many of his sermons and articles, Putin argued that Ukraine was never a real nation. This was, for example, the main message of his lengthy article entitled “On the Historical Unity of the Russians and the Ukrainians”, which he published in July 2021. According to Putin, Ukraine was a fake entity, by encouraging foreign powers as deception to weaken Russia. Putin launched the war to prove the world that the Ukrainian nation does not exist, and that the Ukrainians are in fact Russian, and that, given half an opportunity, the Ukrainians will be accommodated with joy in mother Russia.

Nobody knows the number of people who will die because of Putin’s delusions and aspirations, but one thing is clearly clear to the entire world that Ukraine is a very real nation, and that millions of Ukrainians are ready to fight teeth and nails to stay independent of Russia.

Nations are not made of masses of Earth or blood drops. It is made of stories, pictures and memories in people’s minds. Regardless of how the war has evolved in the coming months, the Russian invasion, Russian vicious and Ukrainian sacrifices will continue to preserve the Ukrainian patriotism for future generations.