Why did Israel choose to hit Iran now?

Open the newsletter to watch the White House for free

Your guide to what the second period of Trump means to Washington, business and the world

Israel’s attack on Iran was 20 years. For decades, Israeli officials insisted that Iran cannot be allowed to develop a nuclear weapon. They also made it clear that they were ready to use the military force to destroy the Iranian nuclear program.

In the aftermath of the attack, two questions arise. Why now? What happens after that?

There are six important factors that led to Israel’s decision to attack.

The first is the extreme influence of Hamas’s attack on Israel on October 7, 2023. Israeli leaders are more convinced than ever they are in a battle for the national survival. They see an Iranian bomb as an existential danger. After the shock of October 7, they believe that they can no longer bear any such risk.

The second factor is that Iran is in a defensive situation much weaker than it has been for many years. The Israeli air strikes last October – which followed an Iranian missile directed in Israel – were severely affected by Iranian air defenses and the ability of missile production. The Israelis believed that they had a unique moment of opportunities to attack Iran, while it was still engraved.

The third reason is that Iran is close to “the ability to collapse” – which would have allowed it to collect a nuclear weapon somewhat quickly. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) announced earlier this week that Iran has violated its obligations under the Nuclear Non -Proliferation Treaty.

The fourth factor is that Israel feels more confident about its ability to radically reshape the Middle East – and to become the regional superpower. The Israelis have been warned by the Biden administration that if they attacked Hezbollah in Lebanon, they will launch revenge that is likely to be destroyed. The Benjamin Netanyahu government ignored these warnings, lost the head of Hezbollah’s leadership and contained the subsequent reverse reaction. Israel has now moved to a direct attack on Iran, its main regional opponent.

The fifth reason is that Israel is exposed to increasing international pressure on the war and the close -up of Gaza. Attacking Iran enables the Netanyahu government to change the issue – and perhaps force European countries, which were increasingly criticizing Israel, from gathering to Israel’s defense.

The sixth and last factor was Israel’s loss of confidence in the Trump nuclear administration talks with Iran. The Israelis believe that these talks are not only mistaken, but also possible because they may leave Iran with a nuclear program. With decisive talks between Iran and the United States scheduled this week, Israel decided to shorten the operation.

The Trump administration was well aware that this might happen. In recent days, senior US officials told European visitors that they believed they had a good opportunity to secure a deal with Iran. But they added that Israel would not be satisfied with the deal – and they believed that the Netanyahu government would move forward in an attack on Iran.

A week ago, the United States moved some anti-Misteen’s defenses from Europe to Israel, as well as evacuating some military transgressors from the region-which indicates that they have a good idea of ​​what was about to happen.

Through the attack now, Israel has also reduced a respectable and disagreement debate within the Trump administration about whether it would help Israel a strike against Iran, or even whether it will participate directly.

When Trump Mike Waltz removed his job as a national security adviser at the beginning of May, it was widely believed that the pro-war faction, supporting Israel within the administration, was weaker-and that the so-called their, who doubt much more about the additional American wars in the Middle East, on the top hand.

However, the Israeli attack confused restrictions in the Trump administration. The Netanyahu government knows – from the last precedent of Lebanon – that Israel may ignore the American calls for self -control and that the United States and its allies will continue to defend Israel from any Iranian revenge. The alternative may be to see Tel Aviv with missiles and ballistic drones – and it is not possible that an American government will accept it.

However, Israel risk paying a long -term price in the United States if it is unintentionally seen that the United States is dragging the United States to another Middle East war. The Trump administration, which is struggling to contain inflation, will finish any rise in the global oil price.

European governments are preparing for problems. They are concerned about the attacks on shipping in the Gulf, high energy prices, new flows of refugees and the stability of the major countries in the region, such as Egypt.

What comes after that depends on the scale and effectiveness of Iranian revenge, which will become more clear in the coming days. If Iran is struggling to strike Israel directly, it may be seduced after following the American bases in the region – including in Qatar and Bahrain. But any such step can be counterproductive because it will ensure the US participation widely in the war.

Other risky Iranian options – which have long been discussed by regional strategists – may include banning or disrupting oil exports from the region. It has long been worried about the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia from strikes on water desalination plants, which are necessary for water supply in the Kingdom.

Any acts of these acts will call on Iran by countries other than Israel. But the Iranian regime, like Israel, may now feel a battle for its survival. It also needs to show their strength to the Iranian people and the wider region.

A course of escalation may start.

[email protected]