Dozens of oil carriers pass through the Strait of Hormuz every day.Reuters
American strikes on Iranian nuclear sites raises fears of Tehran’s revenge and disrupting oil.
For years, Tehran threatened to close the Hormemz Strait, which is the main energy shipping road to the south.
The most difficult blockade will strike the Asian markets, as global high prices also affect the United States.
International investors are alert around the sea corridor 90 miles in the Middle East, for fear that any mass of hormones can hinder global charging and oil.
Tensions in the Middle East escalated sharply We hit Iranian nuclear facilities On Sunday, which prompted fears of revenge on Tehran. In addition to concerns about defense and security, the markets are concerned about the repercussions of oil prices, and the global economy should prevent Iran from shipping in the Strait of Hermoz – a threat to repeat Tehran for years.
“If Iran chooses to block the Strait of Hermoz, it will be categorically negative,” Kyle Rodda, a higher financial market analyst at Capital.com, told Business Insider.
“In the worst scenario, it will be incredibly influencing: high fuel prices, high inflation, slower growth, and interest rates higher than where they will be,” said Rodda.
One of the most sensitive marine roads, the Strait of Hormuz is only 21 miles in the narrowest point. It connects the Persian Gulf with the Indian Ocean, with Iran to the northern United Arab Emirates and Oman to the south.
According to the United States Energy Information Administration, Hormuz is one of the most crowded shipping corridors in the world, which holds about 20 million barrels of oil per day.
Most of the energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have no other way out of the Persian Gulf, which is a starting point of major oil producers such as Saudi Arabia to export their capacity to the rest of the world.
About a quarter of the sea -born oil and five unjustly unjust natural gas trade moves through a hormone, and therefore any shipping disorder will reach the energy markets severely.
“The bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities by the United States during the weekend increased the risk of supply significantly for the LNG,” wrote Warren Patterson, head of the commodity strategy in Inge, on Monday.
Iran does not have the legal authority to close maritime traffic in a hormone. But the movement of ships can be disrupted by other means, for example by destroying the oil and charging infrastructure.
On Sunday, the Iranian parliament voted to close the hormone strait in response to the work of the United States. The final decision remains in senior security officials in the country, according to state -owned press television in Iran.
Analysts said they believe that the Iranian blockade may be more than a political situation than real work.
“While the main headlines seem exciting, the truth is that the Iranian parliament does not carry any executive authority over military or strategic decisions, especially those that have long -term geopolitical and economic consequences.”
She added: “Iran is well aware that any direct turmoil of global oil flows through the strait is likely to lead to an important military and economic response, and the conflict may escalate outside its control.”
The United States is a giant of energy and has become a net energy source since 2019, so it is less likely to shock the physical supply of the siege in Hermoz.
However, the United States can still be exposed through the repercussions of global economic conditions.
“Any negative impact will be through the deterioration of financial conditions or through the highest rates of longer rates because the Federal Reserve has another reason to delay the discounts.”
Priyanka Sashdiva, the first analyst in the mediation of Philip Nova, said the Asian countries will be the most affected by the siege in Hormuz.
In 2024, more than 80 % of crude oil, capacitors and LNG that moved across Hormuz went to Asia, according to the environmental measurement.
“Asia, which consumes the lion’s share of Middle East oil, will be more at risk, as India, Japan, South Korea and China face logistical uncertainty and more expensive directing.”
In 2023, a third of the oil that passed through Hermoz was heading to China, Bloomberg was calculated.
Southern European countries that depend on Gulf oil can face higher import costs, although the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates can re -create large quantities of these exports through pipelines and through the Emirates pipeline and port in Fujira.
Energy is a main cost of input, so any gains in oil prices are likely to increase inflation on a large scale.
I sent the United States strike on Iran Future oil contracts Its height up to five months late on Sunday. Oil prices have now rose about 10 % since Israel’s strikes on Iran in June.
These developments take place in the summer driving season, when the American gas request is long. If the gains in oil prices continue, pump prices are likely to rise in the coming weeks.
According to an environmental impact assessment, the gas price usually rises by 2.4 cents per gallon when crude oil prices rise by $ 1. This translates into a profit of about 20 cents for gallons at the current levels of the future oil contracts.
