While Trump spoils Goldman, economists agree

Goldman Sachs takes the heat to let her consumer enlargement caused by the identification tariff is in the future, but it is far from this opinion among his brothers in Wall Street.

Although investors embrace somewhat benign on Tuesday Consumer price index reportEconomists expect that the greatest impact on inflation has not yet come.

With the spread of stocks before the conflict, effective tariff rates climb up to the highest and less prepared companies to accommodate higher costs of duties, the general feeling is that consumers will grow increasingly biting during the rest of the year.

“Definitions can be raised 1 % of GDP and add 1-1.5 % to inflation, some have already happened,” said Michael Ferrolly, the chief American economist at JPMorgan Chase. “There is a state of great uncertainty about the degree of success to consumer prices, given that the increases in this year’s tariff are greater than anything in the post -US war experience.”

President Donald Trump Goldman Sachs set out On Tuesday to search, economists at the weekend issued economists, stressing that consumers will get a much stronger success of the definitions during the end of the year. Goldman Sachs Economist David Merikli, on Wednesday afternoon on CNBC, Call She said that the company was not tightened due to Trump’s criticism.

In a social publication of the truth, CEO David Solomon suggested fire on the economist who wrote the article or considers the resignation of himself.

However, if every economist in the market is rejected in the same camp about the effects of customs tariffs, there will be many empty offices in Wall Street.

Moreover, whatever acceleration ends, it is not expected that the Federal Reserve is expected Begin to reduce interest rates After staying on the margin throughout 2025 until now. Economists Figure A. Labor market deterioration Along with the belief that the inflation step will be temporary will allow an easier monetary policy.

However, in the near term of high inflation can hinder the consumer spending and the growth of a dent during the rest of the year. JPMorgan sees the result to GDP, two thirds of consumption, in “slightly less than 1 %”.

The Blue Chip economic indicators report, which settles the leading economic names in Wall Street, sees the growth of GDP with a average of only 0.85 % in the second half of this year. But this is actually better than 0.75 % of July, as some of the most pessimistic predictors have changed their views “that the restricted impact of the expected definitions is temporary, as the expected growth is significantly improved next year,” the August report said.

The causes of anxiety in the near term include August 29 The expiration of the exceptions of the tariffWhich allowed goods worth less than $ 800 to enter the United States exempt from customs duties. It can reach retail commodities in particular.

Pantheon expects the macroeconomic economy to obtain a Celsius 1 Celsius to Performance, which ultimately sees 3.5 % by the end of the year.

The company said: “Only a quarter of this height has been liquidated to consumers so far, so we see that the prices of basic goods for the strong opportunity will rise at a faster pace in the coming months.”

BNP Paribas indicated that it is expected that the price increases will exceed goods because recent investigative studies “suggest rising pressure in the rates of services insertion.”

The company added in a memo, “The main concern of the Federal Reserve is less than the exact level and more than the issue of adhesion.” “July print (CPI), with a sudden strength in basic services, is not a convincingly good news.”

The issue of “isolation” inflation is also important.

Cleveland scale in the federal reserve Consumer price index enlarged sticky,, Which include elements such as rent, food away from home, insurance, home furnishings and the like, showed a steady height. It is 3.8 % on an annual basis for a period of three months, and it is the highest since May 2024. Flexible price is enlarged, such as food parts, energy and cars, much lower.

“The definitions will lead to high inflation in the coming months,” wrote the chief economist at PNC Gus Faucher. “With the selection of the basic consumer price index in July, and the high prices with companies over the costs of the high tariffs for their customers, the PCE basic inflation is scheduled to move beyond the federal reserve goal in the coming months.”

Fushir said that although most of the streets are expected to be the way to open open prices, high inflation can give politics some frequency even with weak labor market.