When it is in October and what you expect

• The next Federal Reserve Policy Committee meeting is scheduled to be held on October 28 and 29.
  

• The Federal Reserve is widely expected to reduce the Federal Reserve Money by a quarter of a percentage point to 3.75 % to 4 %.
  

• Federal Reserve officials reduce rates because they are concerned about the weakness of the labor market, and they want to reduce borrowing costs to encourage employment.
  

The Federal Reserve Policy Committee meets on October 28 and 29, and it is widely expected to reduce policy makers from the main interest rate of the Central Bank to low borrowing costs and prevent the shaky labor market from collapse.

Investors expect Federal Open Market Committee To reduce the rate of Federal Reserve’s funds by a quarter of a percentage point to a range ranging from 3.75 % to 4 %, according to the Fedwatch tool for the CME group, which expects price rate changes based on future funding data. This would represent the lowest level of the Federal Reserve Bank rate since December 2022. Federal Reserve Reducing the key rate in September For the first time since December 2024.

Federal reserve officials said they Reducing interest rates to enhance the economy And prevent increased unemployment. Job growth stops almost this summer The definitions also raised prices and clicked consumer budgets.

If the Federal Reserve reduces its main rate as expected, the interest costs on many types of short -term debts will decrease. It includes credit cards, car loans and anything related to the bank Initial pricesAnd, which is often set by a certain percentage above the FBI rate. On the other hand, the returns on the CDs and high -yield savings will also decrease, and inflation may rise more.

The Federal Reserve was assigned by Congress with a Double mandate To maintain low inflation and high employment using the price of federal reserve funds, a interest rate fee is charges of borrowing money from each other. The Federal Reserve Funds affects borrowing costs on short -term loans such as credit cards and car loans, and indirectly affects long -term loans such as real estate loans for 30 years.

When inflation is high, the Federal Reserve raises the rate of borrowing and calming the economy, allowing supply and demand to rebalance. When the labor market weakens, the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates to encourage business and give a payment.

Currently, the economy faces a rare situation An enlarged and labor market is getting worse at the same timePutting a dilemma for the Federal Reserve regarding the problem that must be addressed first. Officials were divided into any approach to be followed. Some have called for more price cuts in the coming months, While others look at inflation as a greater threat He wants to maintain higher rates for a longer period.

How is the work? Modern reports indicate that the labor market slows down. The country has already lost its jobs in June, the first month of losses more than four years ago, and only 22,000 added in August. Meanwhile, more people provide unemployment insurance, and More people reside in unemployment for a longer period.

The next monthly official salary salary report from the Labor Statistics Office, which covers September, will shed more light on this issue. This report was due on October 3, but was delayed due to the closure of the government.

How is inflation? The preferred inflation scale of the Federal Reserve, “Johar” Personal consumption expenses (Except for food and energy), It rose by 2.9 % over 12 months in AugustAccording to the Economic Analysis Office. This number leaves the federal reserve in the path to reduce the rate.

The Federal Reserve was scheduled to see another major report on inflation, in September Consumer price indexOn October 15, just before the meeting, but it is likely to be delayed due to the constant closure.

Inflation has accelerated in recent months, and away from the goal of the Federal Reserve of 2 % annual average. Most of the Federal Reserve officials, with A noticeable exception to the appointment of Trump Stephen MiranHe said that Trump’s tariff pays consumer prices and is responsible for most of the increase in inflation.

What is happening? The government has been closed since October 1, due to a Confronting health care policyWhich led to delaying all types of federal economic data. Statistical agencies will publish reports after the government reopens, but if the confrontation continues, the federal reserve closure may leave the blind.

The main question suspended on the Federal Reserve this year is whether the ruler of the Federal Reserve, Lisa Cook, will remain in the 12 -person voting committee. President Donald Trump tried to overthrow Cook, citing allegations that are not proven to fraud in the mortgage, and to install his candidate in place while he was pressing the Federal Reserve Low interest rates significantly.

A lawsuit against Cook was filed to stop shooting, and the case went to the Supreme Court, which had She ordered her to stay in the job At least until the court hears oral arguments in January. Cook was appointed in the 14 -year term as a leader by former President Joe Biden.

Cook removal can be a major teacher in Trump’s efforts Re -create the Federal Reserve BankIt is an independent agency outside the direct control of the White House.

In recent speeches, federal policy makers highlighted the risks of their dual mandate, and many of them have called for a cautious approach to price discounts in the coming months.

“I am somewhat cautious about the front load of many prices and I only rely on inflation,” said Austan Golsby, Chairman of the Federal Reserve at Chicago, in CNBC on Friday.

Jeff Schmid, head of the Federal Reserve in Kansas City, said he would take a data -based approach, although many of the usual data are not available during the closure.

“Of course, data adoption requires data,” said this week at an event in Kansas City, Missouri. “While I hope the government data that supports decisions that feed on decision -making will soon be available again, in the meantime, I will monitor the alternative price data and prices closely.”

Stephen Miran remained the latest appointment of Trump to the Federal Reserve Governorate Council, in the Federal Reserve Council The only defender for severe price discounts. In an interview with Bloomberg TV last week, Miran said that Trump’s economic policies would help reduce inflation, especially the immigration campaign, which Miran said the demand for housing and then reduce inflation for rent.

The FOOC Open Market Committee (FOMC) is the body that determines the average Federal Reserve Bank of Federal Reserve SystemAnd the United States Central Bank. It holds eight regularly scheduled meetings every year, which is not open to the public. The use of the Federal Reserve for interest rates to influence the economy Monetary.

FOMC consists of 12 voting members: Seven Rulers of the Board of DirectorsThe head of the Federal Reserve in New York, and four other regional bank presidents serving one year period.

At each FOMC meeting, members of the committee discuss economic and financial conditions and decide whether the Federal Reserve’s money rate should be changed and how much. FOMC issues a public statement on its decision at 2 pm on Wednesday when the meeting ends. The Federal Reserve Chair, Jerome Powell, is currently hosting a press conference after that to explain the decision.

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