What we know about the proposed ceasefire agreement in Gaza

After more than 15 months of almost continuous fighting in Gaza, diplomats trying to broker a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas expressed cautious hope on Tuesday that an agreement could finally be reached.

But this optimism is tempered by uncertainty over whether the two sides will ultimately agree, by details that can still change, and by the experience of recent months in which ceasefire talks have repeatedly collapsed.

“We believe we are in the final stages, but until we get an announcement, there will be no announcement,” Majid Al-Ansari, Foreign Ministry spokesman for one of the mediating countries, Qatar, told reporters on Tuesday.

Here’s what we know about the potential ceasefire agreement.

What is the status of the conversations?

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Tuesday that Israel and Hamas “are in agreement.”Right on the edge of the abyssBy agreeing to a deal to stop the fighting in Gaza and release the hostages held there in exchange for the release of Palestinians detained in Israeli prisons.

He and diplomats from other mediation countries, including Qatar and Egypt, have failed for months to achieve a breakthrough in the talks, but have made rapid progress in recent weeks.

Al-Ansari said that the mediators “were able to reduce many of the differences between the two parties,” adding that they focused on “the final details of reaching an agreement.”

“On Sunday, the United States, Qatar and Egypt presented a final proposal,” Blinken said. “The ball is now in Hamas’ court.”

Officials in both the Israeli government and Hamas have indicated that they are willing to move forward if the other side agrees.

A Hamas official said on Monday that an agreement could be reached in the coming days as long as Israel does not suddenly change its positions. An Israeli official said on Tuesday that Israel is ready to conclude the agreement and is waiting for Hamas to make a decision.

Hamas officials negotiating in Qatar must obtain the approval of the movement’s remaining military commanders in Gaza for the deal. Among these leaders is Muhammad al-Sanwar, whose brother led the group before that Israel killed him in September. Because they need to keep their locations secret, communicating with them can be difficult, causing delays.

It is not yet clear whether Mr. Sinwar has conveyed his position on the ceasefire proposal to Hamas leaders in Qatar.

What does the proposal say?

Given the sensitive and ongoing negotiations, officials were careful to describe the proposed agreement in anything other than broad terms.

One diplomat familiar with the talks, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the tumultuous negotiations, said the framework of the deal was largely inspired by previous proposals discussed in May and July. These proposals detail the ceasefire in three phases, in which Israeli forces gradually withdraw from Gaza, while Hamas releases hostages in exchange for the release of Palestinians detained by Israel.

Israeli officials hope to secure the release of at least some of the nearly 100 hostages held in Gaza since the Hamas-led attack on southern Israel in October 2023 that led to the start of the war. Israeli authorities assume that about 35 of the remaining hostages are dead.

Hamas leaders want to end the Israeli military campaign, secure the entry of materials needed for reconstruction, and release Palestinian prisoners detained in Israel.

During the first phase of the proposed ceasefire — which will last about six weeks — Hamas will release 33 hostages, most of whom Israel believes are alive, said an Israeli official, who requested anonymity to discuss the sensitive talks. The official said that Israel is prepared to release hundreds of Palestinian prisoners in return, but the number depends on the number of hostages still alive.

Why have the talks moved so quickly in recent weeks?

Some officials indicated that the change in US administrations, scheduled for January 20, would put pressure on Israel and Hamas to speed up the decision-making process after months of delay.

The next US President, Donald J. Trump, He warned And that there will be a “big push” unless the hostages are released by the time he becomes president. Steve Witkoff, his pick for Middle East envoy, also made visits to Qatar and Israel.

The talks have also gained momentum since Israel reached them A separate ceasefire agreement With the Lebanese armed group Hezbollah, which began firing rockets into Israel immediately after the Hamas-led attack in October 2023. He was beaten badly Because of its escalating conflict with Israel, Hezbollah agreed to a ceasefire with Israel in November, a deal that sealed the agreement. It helped isolate Hamas.