What the United States and Iran are doing after that can be more important

For decades, the United States and Iran have carefully avoided crossing a dangerous red line into a direct military confrontation.

One of the American Presidents hinders the deployment of their military power against the Islamic Republic, for fear of the United States in the Middle East war, the most risky of ever.

Now, the Supreme Commander, who promised to be the head of peace, has expressed this Rubicon with direct military strikes on Tehran’s nuclear sites-the most dependent step so far in the second period of the president that is proud to violate all ancient rules.

It is an unprecedented moment that provokes a warning in capitals all over the world.

The next step for Iran can be more important. Its 86-year-old Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khounai, who has now been reported to be blocked in a warehouse, spent nearly four decades in playing a long match against his strongest enemy to protect his most important origins-the Islamic Republic.

If only a little does, he will lose his face; If a lot does, it may lose everything.

“The next steps of my rawness will be the most dependent not only because of its own survival, but for how it is in history,” says Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa program at Think Tank.

“His poisoned cup is likely to be more effective than Khomeini, which Khomeini drank in 1988,” and continues, in reference to the resolution from the first Iranian revolutionary leader to accept the ceasefire in the destroyed Iranian war.

In the past ten days, severe Israeli strikes have caused greater damage to the Iranian leadership chain and military agencies than its eight -year war with Iraq, which still receive long shadows through Iranian society.

The Israeli attacks have canceled many at the highest ranks of the Iranian security forces, along with prominent nuclear scientists. America’s entry into this conflict has increased pressure.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), which was established in the wake of the Iran revolution in 1979, warns against revenge on the United States and which will leave the matter “permanent remorse”.

But behind a sharp war of words, urgent calculations are to avoid bad appreciation.

“This is not a war that Iran wants,” says Hamidra Aziz, from the Middle East Council for World Affairs. “But we already see arguments from the supporters of the regime, regardless of the actual damage that the United States may cause, Iran as a strong state (and) as a regional power has rocked (that) that it requires a response.”

Each risky response. The direct attack on one of about 20 American rulers in the Middle East, or any of more than 40,000 American soldiers, is likely to have a significant revenge in the United States.

The closure of the Strait of Hermoz, the strategic waterway of the fifth global traffic, can bring in reverse results by disturbing Arab allies in the region, as well as China, the main agent of Iran oil. Western naval forces can also be withdrawn to protect this main “suffocation point” and avoid large economic shocks.

What Iran considered its “front defense”, its network was weakened by agents and partners throughout the region or eliminated by Israeli attacks and assassinations within 20 months of the war.

It is not clear whether there is an acceptable threshold for Iran to see that it will restore fire without provoking America, which will allow both sides to retreat from the edge of the abyss.

This hard relationship was tested at least once. Five years ago, when President Trump ordered the assassination of IRGC commander Qassem Solimani with a drone hit in Baghdad, many feared that he would excite an evil vortex. But Iran has promoted its counter -attack through Iraqi officials, as it targeted sections of American bases that avoided killing American employees or caused severe damage.

But this moment is much larger.

It seems that President Trump, who has repeated and repeatedly expressed his preference “concluding a deal with Iran” instead of “bombing hell from him” now in the corner of Israel. He described Iran as “the fatwa in the Middle East”, determined to build a nuclear bomb – a conclusion that does not share the assessments of previous American intelligence.

In detail, intelligence teams are now detailed the results of what the Pentagon says is “the largest B-2 operational blow in the history of the United States.” It has caused “severe damage and destruction” of the main nuclear sites in Iran in Natanz, Spohan and Ford.

only “Backed” bombs It can penetrate the Fordo Foundation buried in the depths of the mountain.

President Trump is now urging Iran to “reach peace.”

But Iran is now looking at the diplomatic path of the United States as a surrender as well. In Geneva on Friday, when Foreign Minister Abbas Aragichi met with his European counterparts, a difficult message was conveyed that Washington expected Tehran to reduce its nuclear enrichment to scratch.

It is required that Iran refuse to violate its sovereign right to enrich uranium as part of a civil nuclear program.

President Trump’s diplomatic effort, including five rounds of indirect conversations, held by his special envoy Steve Witkev, to be a complex deception.

Israel launched its military campaign two days before the sixth round of negotiations in Muscat. The United States entered the war two days after President Trump said he wanted to allow a two -week window to give diplomacy a chance.

Now she says she will not return to the negotiating table while Israeli and American bombs are still falling.

“It was not Iran, but it was the United States that betrayed diplomacy,” Aragcha told a press conference in Istanbul. During this, he met ministers abroad at the 57 -member Islamic Conference who condemned the “aggression of Israel” and expressed “their great concern about this dangerous escalation.”

Iran also tried to shed light on an attack against its territory that violates the United Nations Charter as well as warnings from the International Atomic Energy Agency that nuclear facilities should never be attacked, “whatever context or circumstances.”

European leaders also call for an urgent escalation and a way to reduce Iran’s nuclear program through mediation, not missiles.

But they also repeat that Iran cannot be allowed to obtain a nuclear bomb. They consider Tehran’s enrichment by 60 percent of uranium, in a 90 % easy range of weapons, as a wild evidence of its intentions.

“Iran is likely to reduce the damage to its locations and insist that its nuclear program has survived these unprecedented attacks,” says Eli Jihadeh, Vice President of the Middle East and North Africa Program at the European Council for Foreign Relations.

“The United States may outperform the damage, so that Trump can demand a military victory without being dragged into more strikes.”

President Trump will be withdrawn in one direction by Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, whose huge forces will continue to attack Iran to cause more damage, leading to more Iranian sulfos.

But the American leader is also under pressure at home from legislators who say that he acted without the permission of Congress, and the supporters who believe that he broke his promise to keep America outside the long wars.

This moment is expected to focus on the minds of militant decision -makers in Iran on how to restore deterrence while trying to avoid targeting themselves.

“This is the great paradox,” Mrs. Geranmayeh warns. “Although Trump sought to eliminate the nuclear threat from Iran, it is now likely that Iran would become a nuclear state.”

The leading image: The demonstrator carries a picture of Iran’s supreme leader. Credit photography: Reuters

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