What next to reform the well -being of the United Kingdom after rotating in Starmer?

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The UK Prime Minister Sir Kerr Starmer was forced to make many concessions for his controversial reforms in an attempt to ignore a major rebellion by the Labor Party deputies.

But the longer number of how the state It can carry the luxury bill in Britain It is still, with the number of demands of the advantages of disability to increase significantly over the next ten years.

What is the size of the problem?

Without reform, spending on health benefits and disability in working age is expected to reach 66 billion pounds by 2029-30, according to the Institute of Financial Studies.

These costs have increased dramatically since the epidemic, with an increase of 16 billion pounds between 2019 and last year.

Without repairs, intellectual suffocations are estimated at a similar size by the end of Parliament.

At the same time, the National Statistics Office estimates that the UK has 2.8 million people suffering from a long -term health condition that prevents them from working.

The changes in the social welfare bill are designed to provide approximately 5.5 billion pounds by 2029-30, but Friday concessions can eventually fly 3 billion pounds of this total.

What did Starmer admit?

In March, Starmer revealed plans to tighten eligibility for disability subsidies known as “personal independence payments”.

On Friday, the government said it would not implement more compromised evaluation rules for the current demands, only the owners of November 2026.

This is a great privilege, which leads to an estimated 370,000 people receiving interest, at a cost of 1.9 billion pounds in 2029-30, according to IFS.

It will avoid the shock of income for any interest -based family, but it can be considered unfair to the demands entitled to the same amount who get sick after the cutting date. On Friday, activists accused the ministers of creating a binary system.

The government has also pledged to freeze the healthy component of comprehensive-paid credit for those evaluated as very sick to work-to 2029-30.

Members of Parliament are now informed that this will now be paid in line with inflation for the current demands. Half will be half and then freeze for new demands.

Options were also made in tightening standards to qualify for PIP.

The ministers said that, as of November 2026, the owners of the claim will need to score at least four points in at least one category of the need to obtain any price of PIP. Representatives have been informed that this will now undergo a review.

Starmer also presented a 1 billion pounds sterling the employment support package To this year to persuade deputies to support social welfare reforms.

What happens after that?

This week U-U-U-U-Urn means that the government “is now really making a small sensation in the social welfare bill, according to Tom Waters, IFS assistant manager.

“The package was even when it was only two days ago, not stopping and certainly did not reflect, these trends in spending.”

He added: “Of course, there are no options available here easy. Achieving very large savings in the next few years will require taking very large sums of large numbers of people, and often in a weak position, over a relatively short period of time.”

Given the concessions made to the current demands, experts indicate that the government is still able to start at least to maximize the bill of welfare law.

“The concessions they made today do not change the long -term policy. They are fixing it slowly more than it was when they published the green paper for the first time,” said Mike Burwer, CEO and chief economist at the decision.

He added that the most important long -term change, which will not be on the bill next week, is to redesign the PIP eligibility test. “The measures next week will slow up spending growth on the advantages of the deficit, but the redesign of the test may have a much greater impact.”