What is the real reason behind Donald Trump’s tariff threats and the 51st State’s posts about Canada?

Donald Trump’s threat to impose massive tariffs on Canadian exports and his trolling of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau are key tactics in a negotiation strategy to extract the best trade terms for the United States, according to people who have worked with him or watched him closely over the years.

Trump Promising To impose a 25 percent tariff on all goods entering the United States from Canada and Mexico on January 20, his first day in office, unless countries limit the flow of drugs and migrants across their borders.

President-elect since then Followed He made the threat by mocking Trudeau by calling him a “governor” and referring to Canada as “the 51st state” in a series of his social media posts.

Analysts say the approach reflects the trademark negotiating style Trump has used for many years, both in business and as president.

Stephen Moore, who served as an economic adviser to Trump during his first term in the White House, says the president-elect aims to gain leverage in renegotiating the trilateral trade agreement between the United States, Canada and Mexico.

“I think there’s no question that that’s what he’s doing here,” Moore said in an interview with CBC News.

“I saw Trump directly and personally during his presidency and talked to him a little bit about this,” said Moore, now a senior economist at the conservative Heritage Foundation.

He added: “He uses the threat of tariffs to push countries to do things that he believes are in America’s national security and economic interests.”

The strategy “worked well” in the first semester

Although Moore Not a fan of tariffs From the perspective of its impact on the economy, he understands why Trump threatened to impose it on Canada and Mexico.

“He wants to make sure that the trade agreements we make are fair to American workers and American companies,” he said. “This strategy worked well in the first term, and I hope it will do so in the second term as well.”

Trump used one punch Tariffs and taunts against Canada In 2018 during talks that led to the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA). He imposed tariffs on steel and aluminium, threatened to impose tariffs on automobile exports, and called Trudeau “dishonest and extremely weak.”

Eugene P. Kogan, who teaches advanced negotiation skills at Harvard University He wrote about it Trump’s negotiating style says the president-elect has long used the tactic of discrediting his rivals as a way to gain influence.

“Prime Minister Trudeau is here Political problem “At home, I think President-elect Trump senses weakness. He smells blood,” Kogan said in an interview with CBC News.

Trump, he says, is “an incredibly rational, and brutally ruthless, analyst of human frailty and political weakness, and that’s when he feels most of his influence.”

Trump is believed to be thinking “almost 24 hours a day” about how to exploit an opponent’s weaknesses and turn them into opportunities to gain.

Threatening tough tariffs against such a long-standing trading partner even before he took office is emblematic of what Kogan calls Trump’s “win-lose” approach to negotiations.

Power move to establish influence

“He is making a power move driven by a desire to consolidate his influence,” Kogan said. “The key message is: ‘I will make it so unpredictable for the other side that the other side will be under pressure to compromise.’”

Trump’s transition team did not respond to a request for comment.

There is a group of observers, from Wall Street to Bay Street to Congress, who view Trump’s tariffs against Canada and Mexico as a way to gain leverage in talks on the trilateral trade deal, which is set to be renewed in 2026.

• “This latest tariff threat effectively marks the beginning of negotiations,” international wealth management firm UBS Global said recently. Briefing note.

• “Trump’s best and most likely use of tariffs is as a bargaining chip to force Canada to make concessions” when renegotiating CUSMA, Economist TD wrote Mark Ercolau.

• “Right now, I see everything Trump does on tariffs as a negotiating tool,” said Iowa Republican Senator Chuck Grassley. According to Politico.

Scott Besent, Trump’s pick for Treasury Secretary, praised the president-elect for using tariffs “as a negotiating tool with our trading partners,” in an op-ed published on the New York Times website. Fox News website Shortly after the election.

Mark Thiessen, former US President George W. Bush’s chief speechwriter and fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, said last week that Trump is serious about imposing tariffs on Canada and using them to negotiate.

“If they don’t come in and do what he wants them to do, he’s going to slap those tariffs on them,” Thiessen told Fox News. “I think he also knows that Justin Trudeau is incredibly weak.”

On Christmas Day, Trump to publish He urged Wayne Gretzky “To run for Prime Minister of Canada” And that the hockey legend “will win easily.” He also considered purchasing Greenland and control From the Panama Canal.

An unnamed transition official told The Washington Post that Trump’s comments on Canada, Mexico, Greenland and Panama were tied together by the common thread of confronting Russia and China.

The newspaper quoted the official as saying, “This is not just haste. There is a cohesive connective tissue to all of this.” “Trump knows what levers to pull.”

Even if there is consensus that Trump’s tactics when it comes to Canada are designed to gain influence, the big question that remains unanswered is what his ultimate goal is.

Many doubt that all he wants is a crackdown on fentanyl smuggling and illegal immigration – the reasons Trump cited for the tariff threat.

That view received some credence on Friday when two of Trudeau’s cabinet ministers spoke He met with two members of Trump’s cabinet In Florida to brief them on Canada’s plan to improve border security.

A senior Canadian government source told CBC correspondent Katie Simpson that Trump’s interest in the US trade deficit with Canada emerged during the meeting.

Trump has repeatedly — and inaccurately — characterized the trade imbalance as the United States propping up Canada.

Crude oil imports drive the US trade deficit

The trade deficit, which will reach about US$75 billion in 2023, is largely due to Canada’s record crude oil exports to its southern neighbour.

The United States imported more oil from Canada last year than it imported from all other countries combined Statistics from US Energy Information Administration.

Moore says he believes Trump’s goal is to make North America “the geopolitically most important region in the world when it comes to energy.”

In his 1987 book The art of the deal“Leverage: Don’t make deals without it,” Trump wrote. There is plenty of evidence that nearly 40 years later he still follows this principle.