What does the military conflict in Iran mean that oil prices? This is what experts say.

the American military strikes in Iran Questions about the influence on the oil and gas industry, including whether the widespread conflict may lead to high energy prices for Americans.

Oil prices jumped by 4 % on Sunday night, shortly after the start of trading, but it fell when experts speculated that Iran is unlikely to close Hermoz StraitPartially controlled by the country, which is partially controlled by the country, which is vital in strategic terms of the flow of crude to the global markets.

However, the geopolitical crisis raises fears that exacerbation of hostilities can pressure the world’s oil supplies, which may likely lead to increased energy costs and other energy costs, as well as other refined products of raw. Iran said on Monday Launcher On the American Air Force in Qatar, where witnesses tell multiple news agencies that they saw what appears to be missiles throughout the country.

Iran, a major product of crude, controls the northern side of the Strait of Hormuz, which is used by ships with approximately 20 % of the world’s daily oil supplies.

“In practice, Iranian efforts” to close “can include the strait of a number of measures, including attacking ships and holding them using the waterway, and hindering the ability to move through the strait, and in the utmost mines in the sea,” David Oxley, chief economist in climate and commodities in a report.

But he added: “(s), as long as the conflict does not become a long -term war with no” slope “, and the turmoil in the strait remains limited to the minimum procedures that were seen so far, and we doubt that any preliminary mutations in global energy prices will dissipate a long time before.

This is what to know About Iran’s conflict The potential impact on oil and gas prices.

What is the impact yet on oil prices?

After increasing early trading on Monday, Brent raw prices, the international standard, fell 0.1 % to $ 76.98 by midday. The crude in West Texas (WTI), the American standard, decreased by 3.8 % to $ 71.06.

However, oil prices remain higher than its level before the hostilities between Israel and Iran began more than a week ago, when the WTI barrel was approaching $ 68.

Although Wall Street experts expect that Iran is unlikely to close the Strait of Hermoz, they notice that ongoing tensions in the region can disrupt the energy market and raise prices.

“The biggest risk of oil supplies in the region may be the Israeli air strikes on Iranian oil production and export facilities, and/or attacks by Iranian agents on oil production and export facilities in Iraq,” Eurasia Group analysts said in a report on June 23.

Israel has so far avoided targeting the Iranian oil export industry. But if so, such strikes may disrupt the flow of several million barrels per day, sending Brent raw prices above $ 80 a barrel, according to the political consultations of risks.

What will happen if the Strait of Hormuz is closed?

Since the hormonal strait is only 21 miles in its narrowest point, it is vulnerable to disorder. The channel links the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and the Arab Sea.

Although energy experts believe that closing the strait is unlikely, indicating the negative economic and geopolitical impact on Iran, they assert that the disruption in the flow of oil through the corridor would send energy prices.

The interruptions will affect the oil that passes through the channel significantly in the markets in China, India, Japan and South Korea, according to Energy Information Administration (EIA), a branch of the US Department of Energy.

The United States imports about 7 % of its oil through the hormonal strait. But any interference in the shipments that pass through the region can affect the global oil market through strangulation, according to experts.

“(W) Hill Iran has not yet targeted the path, until the limited interruption will severely affect the global offer,” Oxford analysts said in an agent on June 20. “In the worst scenario, prices can rise to $ 130 a barrel and shave 0.8 percentage points of global gross domestic product.”

The last time Brent crude, which amounted to $ 130 in 2008, was the result of high energy demand and uncertainty in global energy supplies, According to To Eia. At that time, gasoline prices peak at about $ 4.11 per gallon, or about $ 6.26 per gallon today after inflation controlled.

What are the expectations for us gas prices?

Patrick Dihan, an analyst in Gallon, said that American drivers are likely to see high gas prices in the pump next week, as prices jump between 10 cents and 15 cents per gallon.

“Most of the last and expected height is due to tensions/situation in the Middle East,” he said in an e -mail to CBS Moneywatch.

Even with this increase, US drivers may pay less in the pump than it was a year ago. The average price of gas in the United States is now $ 3.22 per gallon, a decrease of $ 3.45 per gallon in the previous year, according to AAA.