Standard & Poor’s 500 (^ GSBC) The first four trading days were just in the shadow of a new president since the first week of Ronald Reagan in 1985.
Next week, investors will bring a flood of news that will put this height at stake.
The profits of more than 100 members in the S&P 500 index – highlighted through the results of Meta technological weight (Dead), Microsoft (Msft), apple (Apple), Talla (Tsla– It is scheduled to be launched, where Wednesday is the most crowded per week. Starbucks (Sex), Exxon (Xom), And Chevron (CVXIt was also prepared for reporting.
On Wednesday afternoon, the Federal Reserve will also announce its recent decision on monetary policy, as the central bank is expected to keep interest rates unchanged and investors focus on what the President of the Federal Reserve, Jay Powell, will say about 2025.
Last week, the Standard & Poor’s 500 and Nasdak boat index rose (^ Ninth) And the Dow Jones Industrial Mediterranean (^ DJIEach of them increased during a short trading week for four days. Over the past five days, the Standard & Poor’s 500 and Dow Jones Index has increased by more than 2.8%; The technology index leads the gains during that period, as it increased by more than 3.1 %.
Tuesday, Markets It rose like the dollar He falls After Trump refrained from launching a barrage of comprehensive increases in the customs tariffs that some expected on his first day in office.
Scott Crohnrt, the stock strategy in City, wrote in a memorandum of customers on Friday that the implicit fluctuations in interest rates, US dollar and oil throughout the week have moved down.
“The pricing of some negative policy stimuli was a multi -rooted phenomenon,” Cronert said. “Until now, we have seen completely less disturbance than expected at first.”
On Wednesday, a massive demonstration of artificial intelligence after his announcement sparked A new investment for the private sector of $ 500 billion called “Stargate” To build artificial intelligence infrastructure in the United States, with Oracle (OracleOrcl), Chatgpt Openai, and the Japanese bloc Softbank (9984 T.Among those committed to the joint project.
Oracle and SoftBank – along with Microsoft and Nvidia (Nvda– Grandfolded the news.
In the first week, the market fears were not only fulfilled about the definitions, but the artificial intelligence trade that is still hot returned to the fore. A comfortable start for the second Trump administration.
As a week’s more crowded week’s news is expected, investor focus will be tested on Trump’s policies, as the Federal Reserve Declaration, which usually moves the market, sheds light on economic news for this week.
Data from CME collection offers The markets are approximately 100 % chance that the central bank keeps the interest rates fixed when its last decision on policy is issued at 2:00 pm on Wednesday. The press conference of Powell, scheduled to start at 2:30 pm Each time, is the largest source of market fluctuations.
Last Thursday, Trump said in a virtual appearance at the World Economic Forum in Davos, that with the drop in oil prices, “he will demand that interest rates be reduced immediately.” These comments It sparked the discussion About a possible struggle with the federal reserve.
However, the press conference may be less exciting than usual, according to the US chief economist at JP Morgan, Michael Ferrol. “The press conference held by Powell after the meeting on the day of the Federal Open Market Committee often stole,” Ferroli wrote.
“However, we expect that next week the approach of“ ducks and cover ”will be adopted in the next week. It is the statement of monetary policy agreed next Wednesday. “
President Donald Trump (left) and Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell at the White House nomination ceremony in Washington, DC, in 2017. (Xinhua/Yin Bugo via Getti Imaguz) ·Xinhua News Agency via Getti Imagaz
Several major readings on the health of the US economy are also scheduled to be issued a week.
On Thursday, it is expected that the first estimate of GDP for the fourth quarter will show that the American economy has grown at an annual pace of 2.6 % in the last three months of 2024, less than the 3.1 % pace of seen in the previous quarter.
On Friday, a new reading of the preferred inflation scale will witness the Federal Reserve, which is the Personal Consumption Expenditure Index, where economists expect that the annual “basic” personal consumption expenses – which exclude the volatile categories of food and energy – will reach 2.8 % in December. Without change since November. During the previous month, economists expect “basic” inflation in personal consumption expenses by 0.2 %, which is faster than 0.1 % registered in November.
Blake Join, head of the American interest rate strategy at RBC Capital Markets, wrote in a memorandum of customers on Friday that the discharge of data at the end of the week – along with Trump’s policies – the Fed Bank may leave “playing a third role” in the market.
Join has argued that Trump’s comment or the data on the horizon could “make anything Powell say at the press conference next week quickly.”
The S&P 500 companies have achieved a strong start for the profit season. The index is expected to grow at 12.7 % compared to the previous year in the fourth quarter, according to FactSet data.
But a lot of this growth still depends on the performance The “amazing” technology shares.. Four of those companies – Tesla, Meta, Microsoft and Apple – will reports next week.
The profits of this seven -shares of seven shares are expected to grow by 21.7 % in the fourth quarter compared to 9.7 % profit growth expected for other 493 technology shares.
Nevertheless, Vino Krishna, head of the American stock strategy at Barclays Bank His expectations for 2025Due to the significant growth in the expected profits of the Big Tech company throughout the year, the group is likely to remain “a critical of the arrow’s profit growth engines for the S&P 500 as the group (in 2024).”
It is worth noting that the growth of the profits of Magnificoft Seven will accelerate in the second half of the year after a moderate slowdown in the first six months of the year.
Economic data: The National Reserve National Activity Index in Chicago, December (-0.12 previously); New home sales, on a monthly basis, December ( +6.6% expected, +5.9% previously)
Profits: A T & T)T), Nokur (No), Sophie (Sofi), Western Alliance Bank (Wol))
Economic data: Public goods orders, December (+0.8% expected, -1.2% previously); FHFA home price index, on a monthly basis, November (+0.4% previously), S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller, 20 cities Index, seasonal rate on a monthly basis, November (+0.3% expected,+0.32% previously); Consumer confidence conference, January (105.6 expected, 104.7 previously); Federal Industrial Industrial Industry Index, Jan-10 previously)
Economic data: Mortgage requests Master of Business Administration, the week ending January 24 (+0.1% previously); The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision regarding the interest rate (no change is expected)
Economic data: GDP for the fourth quarter, the first estimate ( +2.6% expected annual average, +3.1% previously); Personal consumption, pre -appreciation for the fourth quarter ( +3.1% annual average expected, +3.7% previously); Basic personal consumption expenses, on a quarterly basis, and pre -appreciation for the fourth quarter (+2.2% previously); Initial unemployment claims, January 25 (223,000 precedents)
Economic evaluation: Basic Personal Consumption Expenditure Index, on a monthly basis, December ( +0.2% expected, +0.1% previously); Basic Personal Consumption Expenditure Index, on an annual basis, December (+2.8% expected, 2.8% previously); Employment cost index, fourth quarter (1% expected, 0.8% previously)
