What can be expected from the ice talks in the United States and China

High risks for The United States and China are speaking this week, as the result can reinstall the future of economic relations between the two largest economies in the world.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Beesen and Commercial Representative Jameson Jarir will meet with the Chinese economic actor and Deputy Prime Minister in Switzerland on Saturday.

Analysts say it is unlikely to come out of a comprehensive deal from one meeting, however, they hope that the partial decline of high tariffs on the table will be.

Both sides were looking for a way to cancel the escalation, as the economic losses of difficult definitions became increasingly ignoring them.

American economy 0.3 % contract in the first quarter This year, amid increasing fears that the economy will Slide With high inflation and unemployment. While the Chinese economy grew Better than expected 5.4 % In the first three months of this year, major banks have reduced their growth expectations for the entire year to about 4 %-less than the government’s goal of about 5 %.

Dan Wang, the director of China at ERARASIA GROUP, said that Trump still has more loss, as the Chinese political system gives the country the country’s leadership “higher pain threshold” and “a greater degree of control over the short -term macro policy support.”

Wang said that the deputy prime minister is the main task will simply seek clarity about what Trump wants and evaluate whether the United States intends to harm the interests of China.

What seemed to be a batch of confidence before the meeting, China has released commercial data This showed that its exports increased by 8.1 % on an annual basis in April against the background of the jump in shipments to Southeast Asian countries, and ignored 21 % in external goods to the United States

On Friday, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce launched a “A special process” To combat strategic mineral smuggling, including gallium, germanium, antimony, tingstin, medium and rare heavy land.

Without naming specific entities, the ministry frams the process as “a campaign on external entities that colluded with illegal local individuals” to overcome Export control rules It rose earlier this year.

“It is a useful reminder of the financial lever owned by China, where negotiations were appointed in Geneva,” said Stephen Olson, a visiting colleague at the Institute of Southeast Asia Studies and a former Trade negotiator.

China is the world The largest product for many critical metals Decisive to make semiconductors, defense equipment and clean energy. As part of the reprisal measures against the Trump tariff that was announced last month, China has Increase export controls Of minerals.

Olson said: “The acute shares that China in a quarantine are restricting access to critical minerals that cannot be easily obtained elsewhere,” Olson said.

Top on Washington’s agenda is insurance Remove export restrictions in China on rare land Bloomberg used to make a magnet, citing people familiar with this issue.

Wu Shinbo, director of the American Studies Center at the University of Vodan, said another possible pressure point for Trump is the wide property in China on US Treasury bonds, which can pose risks to the stability of the financial market.

Wu said that Beijing is likely to increase the pruning of her stock, which is worth about $ 800 billion, from US government debt if she wanted to raise the heat on Trump.

Although market speculation is that China may empty its treasury possessions to reach a customs tariff, a large sale can bring in reverse results. Such a move may enhance the yuan, which undermines the competitiveness of export in China, and leads to great losses on its origins provided in dollars.

“Canceling the escalation, and creating these prices to where they can, where they should be, I think it is the goal CNBC said on Friday. “This is what the president hopes is a good result. It is a world that does not fade as we return to each other and then work on a big deal together.”

During a White House press conference on signing a trade deal with Britain, Trump said about Switzerland A meeting, “I think we will get a good weekend with China.”

Then the US President said in a publication on the social media platform on Friday, that “80 % tariff in China seems correct! Even Scott B.”

On the other hand, Chinese officials have set a more stable tone, as they repeated the country’s request to the Trump administration to cancel all the customs tariffs unilaterally on China.

A spokesman for the Ministry of Commerce said on Wednesday that “China will not sacrifice a principle by reaching (A) dealing with us,” with the repetition of Washington, “Washington must” correct its violation “by removing all unilateral customs duties.

China It is said Import duties on chosen drugs, fine chips and aircraft engines from the United States. It also created the “white list” of American goods that will be exempted from additional fees, according to Reuters.

However, he tries to achieve a more comprehensive deal, similar The first stage deal was signed during the first period of TrumpShaw said, it is likely to be “long and unelected”, as both sides did not show a little appetite for settlement on strategic priorities related to economic red lines.

Shaw added: “We strongly doubt the possibility of access to the United States and China to something close to the trade agreement in the first stage that was reached in 2020 – a model that was filmed in the eyes of senior American officials.”

China was He claimed that he achieved Conditions under Commercial deal the first stage Trump hit Beijing during his first presidential period, while the United States claims to violate some states in the agreement.

China requires the strengthening of US cargo purchases by 200 billion dollars over two years, but Beijing He did not meet the goals It also hit PandeMic Covid-19.