What are the worst scenarios?

Currently, the fighting between Israel and Iran appears to be restricted to the thirty. At the United Nations and other places, there were wide -scale calls for self -control.

But what if they fell on deaf ears? What if the fighting escalates and expands?

Here are some possible and worse scenarios.

For all the denial of the United States, Iran clearly believes that the American forces supported the attacks and support of Israel, at least implicitly.

Iran can strike American targets in the Middle East – such as special forces camps in Iraq, the military bases in the Gulf, and diplomatic missions in the region. The Iranian agent’s forces – Hamas and Hezbollah – may diminish, but their supportive militias in Iraq remain armed and peaceful.

The United States fears that such attacks were a possibility and withdrew some employees. In its public messages, the United States warned Iran firmly of the consequences of any attack on American goals.

What would happen if an American citizen was killed, for example, in Tel Aviv or anywhere else?

Donald Trump may find himself forced to act. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has always been accused of the desire to withdraw the United States to help him defeat Iran.

Only military analysts say that the United States has bombers and bombs that can penetrate the deepest Iranian nuclear installations, especially those for Fordow.

Trump promised him the Maga circle that he would not start any so -called “forever wars” in the Middle East. But on an equal footing, many Republicans support the government and its opinion that the time has come to search for a regime change in Tehran.

But if America will become an active fighter, this will represent a great escalation with a long tail and perhaps devastating.

If Iran fails to cause military damage and other targets that Israel protects, it may always aim to aim its missiles in more soft targets in the Gulf, especially the countries that Iran believes to help and its enemies over the years.

There are a lot of energy and infrastructure goals in the region. Remember that Iran was accused of hitting oil fields in Saudi Arabia in 2019, and Houthi agents hit goals in the United Arab Emirates in 2022.

Since then, there has been reconciliation between Iran and some countries in the region.

But these countries host the American air bases. Some also helped – caution – defending Israel from the Iranian missile attack last year.

If the Gulf is attacked, it may also be required for US warplanes to reach its defense as well as Israel.

What if the Israeli attack fails? What if Iranian nuclear facilities are very deep and well protected? What if it is 400 kg of enriched uranium by 60 %-nuclear fuel, which is just a small step away from being completely at the degree of weapons, enough for ten bombs or so-it has not been destroyed?

It is believed that it may be hidden in the depths of secret mines. Israel may have killed some nuclear scientists, but no bombs can destroy Iran’s knowledge and experiences.

What if the Israeli attack persuades Iran’s leadership that its only way to deter the additional attacks is the race for nuclear ability as quickly as possible?

What if these new military leaders around the table were more severe and less cautious than their dead ancestors?

At least, this may force Israel to further attacks, and perhaps link the area on a continuous tour of strike and anti -strike. The Israelis have a brutal phrase for this strategy; They call it “grass cut”.

The price of oil is already rising.

What if Iran tries to close the Strait of Hormuz, which restricts the movement of oil?

What if – on the other side of the Arabian Peninsula – the Houthis in Yemen double their efforts to attack shipping in the Red Sea? They are the last to be called an ally of the remaining agent in Iran with a busy record of the inability to predict and appetite for high risk.

Many countries around the world suffer from the cost of a living crisis. The high price of oil may add to inflation to a global economic system that is already launched under the weight of Trump’s introductory war.

And let us not forget, the only man who benefits from the high oil prices is President Putin from Russia, who will suddenly see billions of dollars in Kremlin’s treasures to pay the price of his war against Ukraine.

What if Israel succeeded in its long -term goal in forcing the collapse of the Islamic revolutionary regime in Iran?

Netanyahu claims his primary goal is to destroy the Iranian nuclear capacity. But he explained in his statement yesterday that his broader goal involves changing the system.

He told “the proud people in Iran” that his attack is “clearing the way for you to achieve your freedom” from what he called “evil and repression.”

The government of Iran may fall into the region, especially some Israelis. But what vacuum does it leave? What are the unexpected consequences there will be? How will the civil conflict look like in Iran?

Many can remember what happened to both Iraq and Libya when a strong central government was removed.

Therefore, a lot depends on how this war is progressing in the coming days.

How – and how difficult – will Iran be divided? What is restraint – if any – which the United States can exercise on Israel?

On the answer of these two questions, a lot depends.