WeF expectations: 72 % of economists see the slowdown

The global economy enters a period of defeated growth and increased turmoil, according to the latest expectations of major economists at the World Forum. The report reveals that 72 % of the senior economists included in the survey expect to weaken global growth during the next year. Trade disruption, high policy uncertainty, and rapid technological progress as the main powers that constitute a new economic environment. These developments indicate the scene, which is characterized by constant disruption and increased fragmentation.

The report highlights the blatant difference in growth expectations across regions. Emerging markets, especially those in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), South Asia, East Asia and the Pacific, are seen as major engines for global growth, while developed economies are expected to face stagnation. One in three major economists expects a strong or very strong growth in these emerging areas. China’s view is still mixed, as it expects 56 % moderate growth amid constant shrinkage pressure. It is expected that developed economies such as Europe and the United States will face weak challenges, financial or inflationary growth.

The weaknesses of the debt have become increasingly clear in the advanced economies. The report indicates that 80 % of the senior economists are expected to escalate the risk of debt in advanced economies during the next year. Financial weaknesses are now mentioned as higher growth inhibitors by 41 % of respondents for advanced economies, compared to only 12 % of developing economies. This shift refers to an increasing concern that surrounds the sustainability of public financial resources in the richer countries, a threat that was previously more common with emerging markets.

Trade disturbance has reached what major economists describe as “very high” levels. Seventy percent of the respondents measure the current trade environment as very troubled, as more than three quarters expects that this instability will infiltrate into other parts of the global economy. These disturbances extend beyond trade to the influence of global value chains, financial markets and broader economic institutions, which leads to systematic uncertainty.

Financial and monetary markets also face high fluctuations. Forty -five percent of senior economists disrupt these areas high or very high, although only 21 % believe that such disorders will continue in the long run. While most of them do not expect a major crisis in the short term in advanced economies (52 %), there is still widespread anxiety, with 85 % warning that any shock can have extensive regular consequences.

The outlook is determined by the structural nature, not periodic, to the current disorders. The large majority of respondents expect permanent disturbances in natural resources and energy (78 %), technology and innovation (75 %), commercial value chains and global value (63 %), and global economic institutions (63 %). This consensus is a departure from the previous ages, indicating that the current period of amendment will likely get permanent effects on global growth and cooperation.

Senior economists warn that developed and developing economies are to be increasingly tracking growth paths. Fifty -five percent of the respondents expect this difference to expand over the next three years. While emerging markets may provide opportunities for flexibility and growth, advanced economies will need to face financial restrictions and slow growth.