We are about to know who really pays for definitions

The best American banks will submit a report, starting with Jpmorgan Chaseand Citigroup and Wales Vargo Tuesday. In the technology sector, broadcast leader Netflix And the Giant TSMC report on Thursday. Between industries, results from AlcoaAnd Geospace and 3m This week is also scheduled.

The unanimity estimate in Wall Street is that the profits of the S&P 500 companies have grown by only 4 % in the second quarter of last year, the slow pace since 2023 and the decrease in growth in the first quarter by 13 %.

This comes as it happened in the trade war Donald Trump So far to feed the large inflation Spike, although the customs tariff is expected to appear more in economic data later this year.

The consumer price index will be issued on Tuesday, and analysts expect a monthly increase by 0.3 % for the month of June, an increase of a 0.1 % pace. The product price index is scheduled to be on Wednesday, and the acceleration is also expected to appear to 0.2 % of 0.1 %.

The rise can be due to companies that are depleted from the stocks that were stored before the tariffs, forcing them to integrate more of these costs in the price of their goods.

Capital Economics said last week that Wall Street does not see American companies that bear a lot of future tariffs, and it seems that exporters do not reduce their prices strongly to compensate for the definitions.

A The survey published last week by KPMG More than 80 % of companies planned to raise prices in the next six months, and 73 % said it has already passed up to half of the tariffs related to consumers. But that was not enough to maintain profits, as 57 % of companies said that their total margins decreased.

Meanwhile, economists in Goldman Sachs expect companies to pass 70 % of the costs of definitions for consumers through high prices, According to a note Earlier this month.

If these ponds, it will be a heaviest blow than Some previous expectations. Chris Harvey, Wales Vargo The head of the stock strategy in securities said, if the customs tariff stabilizes about 10 %, it can be eaten by a third of the cost by the importer, the third by companies, and the third by consumers.

“This is not a big effect.” He said CNBC On May 30.

This goal of 10 % seems to be increasingly optimistic, as Trump continued to pressure aggressive rates. Goldman Sachs expects that the actual rate will eventually settle about 17 %.

But companies that go through the costs of customs tariffs also risk a violent reaction. the KPMG A poll said 34 % of companies said that the reaction of customers represented a challenge, and 45 % said that sales have already begun to decline.

There is one consumer in particular that companies need to avoid inconvenience: Trump. In May, warn Wal Mart Not raising prices after the retail giant said in a profit call that prices can rise on a wide range of products.

“Wal -Mart must stop trying to blame technical trips as a reason to raise prices throughout the series,” Trump posted on Social truth. “Wall Mart achieved billions of dollars last year, more than expected. Between Wall Mart and China, they should, as it is said,” eat definitions “, and not to charge the scheduled customers anything. I will watch, as well as your customers !!!”

“If it is only in the short term for political reasons,” said Capital Eightingx.

Either way, the next profit reports will be detected more specifically than to deal with the amount of what he is dealing with. More pain on the consumer side may lead to nutrition and prevent the federal reserve from price reduction rates, which weighs in the stock market. More pain on the side of the company will wear profits – as well as affect the stock market.