Wars top global risk as elite meet in Davos amid fragmented world By Reuters

(This story was republished on January 15 with an edited comment from the Director-General of the World Economic Forum in paragraph 4)

Written by Elisa Martinuzzi

LONDON (Reuters) – Armed conflict is the biggest risk in 2025, a World Economic Forum survey released on Wednesday showed, a reminder of growing global fragmentation as governments and business leaders attend an annual meeting in Davos next week.

Nearly one in four of more than 900 experts surveyed in academia, business and policymakers ranked conflict, including wars and terrorism, as the most severe risk to economic growth in the coming year.

Severe weather, no. The number one concern in 2024, the second risk.

“Rising geopolitical tensions and collapsing confidence are driving the global risk landscape,” Mirek Dusek, Director-General of the World Economic Forum, said in comments accompanying the report. “In this complex and dynamic context, leaders have a choice: find ways to strengthen cooperation and resilience, or confront increasing vulnerabilities.”

The World Economic Forum kicks off on January 20, and Donald Trump, who will be sworn in as the 47th president of the United States, will address the meeting virtually on January 23. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will attend the meeting and deliver a speech in January. 21 According to organizers of the World Economic Forum.

Reuters reported on Wednesday that Trump’s advisers acknowledged that resolving the war in Ukraine would take months or even longer, a stark reality check of his pledge to strike a peace deal on his first day in the White House.

Other world leaders scheduled to attend the Davos meeting include European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Chinese Vice Premier Deng Xuexiang.

Syria, the “terrible humanitarian situation in Gaza” and the potential escalation of the conflict in the Middle East will be the focus of the meeting, according to World Economic Forum President and CEO Borg Brende.

Negotiators are working on finalizing details for a possible ceasefire in Gaza on Wednesday, after marathon talks in Qatar. The threat of misinformation and disinformation was ranked as the most serious global threat over the next two years, according to the survey, the same ranking in 2024.

The survey showed that over a decade, environmental threats dominated experts’ concerns about risks. Extreme weather represents the greatest long-term global risk, followed by loss of biodiversity, critical change in Earth systems, and shortages of natural resources.

Global temperatures last year exceeded 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) above the pre-industrial era for the first time, bringing the world closer to breaching pledges made by governments under the 2015 Paris climate agreement.

A global risk is defined by the survey as a condition that would negatively impact a significant proportion of global GDP, population or natural resources. The experts were surveyed in September and October.

The majority of participants, 64%, expect the multipolar and fragmented global system to continue.