Washington seems to have resigned somewhat from the fact that the closure of the government will start in the middle of the night, and it was the first to happen since 2018. Of course, this could be acceptance of the call of the political opposition trick – or it could be a real reflection of the sector within Congress. Whatever the reason, Wall Street is arrested in the middle.
The work statistics office has confirmed that the potential closing victims (caused by a confrontation on how to finance government) are already important: the salary statements will not be issued on Friday, as the work statistics office confirmed, if it is moved. This means that analysts will be traded without a relatively essential part of the contemporary data that the markets were closely monitoring.
The additional repercussions of potential temporary suspension to data data are the decision -making process at the Federal Reserve. While it is known that the closures last only days, there is an opportunity that can flow for weeks. Although it is unlikely that the closure will continue near one month, it means that the Federal Reserve meeting at the end of October can be inclined to either due to the lack of data or economists who play feverishly with the reporting.
Trump is not afraid of closing the government – it happened under his administration before – Vice President JD Vance said yesterday that he believed that the White House was heading to a dead end despite the efforts made to the negotiations.
The will-no-of the highest position in America is specifically that the Wall Street environment does not like it: uncertainty.
“The United States is still heading to the closure of another government this evening, and this may happen or not because this political theater is a prominent routine and a solution is often created at the last possible minute,” Girl Paul Donovan. “All this reduces the productivity of economists … where there are useless hours behind the analysis of antiquities. (BLS) said that they will not publish any economic data in the event of closing – from the training course, economic data is subject to quality data, but the problem is that alternatives such as emotional polls are worse, and that all these markets will be left to work in a state of difference in the official classification.”
Donovan pointed out that the time it takes to focus on this “false drama” will unfortunately allow common evidence and evidence of unreliable surveying to gain influence on the markets, “and it represents an opportunity for private companies. Donovan added that companies can infiltrate through price increases-for profit instead of the tariff tariffs-because they know that they will achieve “without discovering” for some time. Of course, these increases will be determined at the end when resuming inflation, but by that time, consumers will already feel colors and amend their inflation perceptions accordingly.
Total effects
It is likely to prepare for fluctuation, UBS reminds its clients to see closing fears and “focus on other market drivers, such as a mixture of continuous discounts in the federal reserve rate, strong companies’ profits, and strong AI Capex and the march.”
Mark Heifelli, chief investment official in the bank, wrote in the memo of this morning that the temporary delay in data should not delay the cuts to the basic rate – which is the market prices – and any stopping effects on the remaining side “are usually minimal and reversal quickly.”
For the most important – but the minimum remains relatively relatively – the closure should be “long” from Thierry Wizman, Global FX and strategic strategic prices in the Macquarie Group, in Friday note: “The last government closure … is not also the longest center in the digestive system. The real GDP in the fourth quarter of 2018 was reduced by 0.1 % (other than Manufacturer), the real GDP level was estimated in the first quarter of 2019 by 0.2 %.
“However, in the subsequent seasons, the gross domestic product will be temporary higher It was in the absence of closure, as the activity returns back. As such, just a very small “loss” (0.02 %) of gross domestic product.
But the last closure also comes with the threat that President Trump will leave permanently some of the workers who were subjected, referring to Wizmann: “If this happens, any negative impact on gross domestic product may usually deepen. This will also create a new penetration about” governance “in the United States.”
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