Vietnam got an early trade deal with Donald Trump. Was it worth it?

For Thanh Chong Garment, the Vietnamese supplier of clothing companies including Adidas, Calvin Klein and Colombia, it should have been a commercial deal to avoid the worst tariff for US President Donald Trump as a great relief.

Vietnam was only one of the two countries. Trump said I imposed a deal With the United States, by a date on July 9 to avoid the so -called mutual definitions. This week, many of her neighbors Letters received From the White House, in some cases, high fees.

But the company was confusing because there were no details of the agreement. Trump has announced a 20 percent tariff rate, a decrease in a preliminary threat of 46 percent, but Vietnam or the United States did not provide further details or issued a final version of a commercial agreement.

Hanoi also did not confirm the new tariff rate, saying only that the two sides have reached a “mutual and balanced trade agreement”, which raised more uncertainty for companies.

The American side also included a 40 percent average “Transshipped” goods – Or redirect – through Vietnam, although it did not specify the transition. But the item may spoil the concerns among companies that they will be punished to use Chinese inputs, which are necessary to supply chains in Vietnam.

The company’s president, Tran Nhu Tung, pointed out that the basis price of 20 percent was not much higher than the import tax, which is currently 15 to 17 percent by Vietnamese clothing makers. But the transport item can be a major challenge.

“For the products that (have) materials from China but are made in Vietnam, what tariff should be exported to the United States? 20 percent, 30 percent or 35 percent?” Tong said. “We need to wait.”

Vietnam, one of the largest suppliers, shoes, electronics and other products to the United States, has become a manufacturing force in recent years, as it attracted Apple, Nike and Samsung while companies rushed to transfer production outside China to avoid reaction from geopolitical tensions.

Many of these companies climb to know the new commercial deal will work – and whether Vietnam has registered or destroyed conditions.

“There are sighs from relief, at least, we know what the answer is for Vietnam … but there is still a lot of uncertainty in the existing agreement at the present time,” said Rich McLelalan, founder of the RMAC Consulting Corporation whose customers and Vietnamese government include sighs at least.

He added that the transport item is “the most mysterious and most dangerous part of this agreement.”

Vietnam He has a lot at stake. One of the world’s most trading countries, with exports to GDP about 90 percent, a third of its exports goes to the United States alone, making the customs tariff rate the highest risk of economic growth.

The surplus of trade with the United States has increased in recent years to $ 123 billion in 2024, the third largest behind China and Mexico.

The country also drew accusations of service as a channel for Chinese companies that seek to avoid Washington’s tariff. A large amount of manufacturing investment in Vietnam It comes from ChinaWhich represents nearly one of every three new projects last year.

Experts say the definition of the Trump administration can refer to it A group of practices Simply re -filling Chinese goods with a “made in Vietnam” sign or using Chinese raw materials in the goods made in Vietnam.

“The impact may be more limited if these definitions of 40 percent are applied only for the most effective practices of transforming clear trade to avoid American customs tariffs,” said MUFG.

“In contrast, if there is a more striking decision to transmit the defined as a specific threshold of foreign added value, the effect may be …”.

Looking at the Trump administration Attention to isolating ChinaCompanies fear a wider definition. This will be very harmful to Vietnam, as many companies rely on Chinese raw materials and components, and warned that removing them will be impossible.

“This is not realistic, it does not take into account how global supply chains work,” said a American businessman in Hanoi. “It is not only impossible for Vietnam. It is impossible for everyone.”

Another unknown is how Vietnam’s tariff will be Compare with her neighbors The difference that will be crucial in maintaining Vietnam has a competitive advantage as a manufacturing center. Trump has set a new final on August 1 for countries to reach an agreement with the United States.

“Whether the tariff that was eventually negotiated is a victory or a loss of Vietnam, it depends largely on whether China in addition to one markets secure similar deals,” said Marco Forster, Director of Asian at Disan Shera and Co..

The official data for the first half of the year shows that foreign direct investment increased nearly a third to 21.5 billion dollars, indicating that the investment was not afraid due to the induction uncertainty. Vietnam also has an advantage in some incentives and cheaper costs for producers.

But Steve Greenssbon, founder of the retail home commodity company in the United States, warned Hani Kan Du that “the customs tariff by 20 percent will lead to high prices and enlargement of goods.”

“This will definitely lead to a decrease in demand for goods, to harm American companies and jobs,” he said. “Companies will continue to produce their products in Vietnam, despite a lower pace by definitions.”

For Tung, requests from US agents have already decreased between 15 and 20 percent, after rushing to ship requests before the deadline on July 9. Up to 70 percent of the raw materials for the manufacture of clothing, from cotton threads to zipper and flexibility, obtained from China, which makes it difficult for the industry to avoid engaging in transportation.

“Most clothing materials are imported in Vietnamese clothing companies from China,” Tong said. “So it is difficult to find another material resource regardless of China.”

Data is visualized by Haohsiang Ko in Hong Kong