US expects 6 million job losses and $1.1 trillion GDP shortfall if Trump tax cuts end: study

First on Fox: Nearly 6 million American jobs are at risk if President-elect Trump’s 2017 tax cuts expire, a study from the National Association of Manufacturers (NAM) shows.

Fox News Digital first obtained a copy of the study conducted by Ernst & Young on behalf of the largest company Manufacturing Association In the United States, it found that if Congress does not act by the end of 2025 to preserve the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, an estimated 5.9 million American jobs will be lost.

The NAM said key pro-manufacturing provisions related to research and development, capital investments and business loans in the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 have already been phased out in 2022 and 2023, and several others, namely the 20% pass-through deduction, on individuals The tax rates and property tax exemption threshold are expected to expire at the end of 2025.

The study appreciates this American economy He would face $540 billion in lost wages and a $1.089 trillion GDP shortfall if the remaining provisions of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act expire. Additionally, the study says that if Congress does not sustain the reforms, 1.137 million manufacturing jobs, $126 billion in manufacturing workers’ compensation, and $284 billion in manufacturing GDP are at stake.

“The time to act is now. Millions of American workers depend on the manufacturing sector to continue moving America forward,” said Jay Timmons, President and CEO of the Non-Aligned Movement. “The pro-growth tax policies that emerged from President Trump’s 2017 tax reforms have been rocket fuel for manufacturers and have made the American economy more competitive on a global scale. Manufacturers have delivered on our promises to create jobs, raise wages and benefits, and invest in our community. From By acting now, policymakers can choose economic growth over economic disaster and protect American livelihoods.

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Timmons said preserving tax reform should be one of the first priorities of the new Congress and the incoming Trump administration.

“If Congress delays, manufacturers will be forced to delay investment and job creation decisions due to the uncertain outlook. In 2017, Congress passed the landmark Tax Cuts and Jobs Act late in the year, meaning manufacturers’ investment decisions based on the law could be delayed,” Timmons said. “It won’t come to fruition until 2018 at the earliest.”

In 2018 and 2019 respectively, industrial capital spending grew by 4.5% and 5.7%, compared to growth of only 1.4% in 2017.

Manufacturers also added 267,000 new jobs in 2018, representing the best year for manufacturing job creation in 21 years, Timmons noted.

“This time, we can’t wait: With crucial TCJA provisions expiring in recent years, the economy is already tanking,” he said. “After direct R&D expenditures ended in 2022, EU R&D growth exceeded that of the United States for the first time in nearly a decade, and China’s R&D growth tripled our growth. Congress and President Trump must act quickly to stimulate this activity.” The year by acting “urgently to give manufacturers the tax certainty they need to plan long-term job-creating projects.”

The NAM claims that Congress’ inaction could lead to higher taxes on pass-through companies and family-owned businesses; increased costs of research and development, capital equipment purchases, and business loans; and “an uncompetitive international tax system that discourages investment in the United States and hampers the ability of manufacturers to compete on the global stage.”

House Republican leadership indicated they were willing to keep the 2017 tax reforms.

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“Failure to extend the Trump tax cuts could result in the loss of an estimated 6 million jobs and the destruction of the American manufacturing sector,” House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-Los Angeles, said in a statement. “It is Congress’s responsibility to act quickly so we can protect Americans’ livelihoods, prevent wage declines, and avoid the largest tax increase in history. We all know the importance of Making things here in AmericaSo House Republicans are working hard to preserve and build on President Trump’s historic tax reform and support American manufacturers.

House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, Republican of Los Angeles, said: Trump’s Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 “not only boosted American manufacturing, but boosted job growth, drove innovation, increased wages for hard-working Americans, and increased America’s competitiveness.”

“With President Trump returning to the White House and… Republican majority “In the House and Senate, we must move quickly to ensure we maintain global competitiveness, support investment and innovation, and protect small businesses and workers,” Scalise added. “Hardworking Americans deserve a strong economy that works for them, not against them.” “House Republicans are ready to block the largest tax increase in history and make our economy great again.”

“This study underscores the need to immediately extend Trump’s tax cuts this year by showing the real devastation to America’s small businesses and manufacturers if we fail to act,” said House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Jason Smith. “With nearly 6 million jobs at stake, Congress must act quickly to give American small businesses, families and communities across the country the green light to hire more workers and expand their businesses to restore the greatest economy of our lifetime as soon as possible.”

“The last thing they need is the largest tax increase in American history,” Smith added. “Republicans have been preparing Ways and Means for this moment for nearly two years and are ready to deliver an economic package that will make American manufacturing great again.”

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The study also sparked a response from the Senate of Congress. said Senate Finance Committee Chairman Mike Crapo, R-Idaho Trump’s tax reform “allowed Americans to keep more of their hard-earned money and enabled companies to invest in their ideas, products, and people.” He added that making those tax cuts permanent “is the best way to ensure the greatest economic growth, provide certainty and stability to American businesses, and avoid the economic losses described in this study.”

A news conference to discuss the study further is scheduled at the Capitol on Tuesday afternoon.