UBS Quarterings Q4 2024

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The escalation of customs tariffs can lead to recession and inflationary pressure, says CEO of UBS Ermotti.

The largest lender in Switzerland UBS On Tuesday, Safi profit was recorded in the fourth quarter in exchange for the company’s consensus amid banking gains for investment, as she launched a re -purchase of up to 3 billion dollars over 2025.

The bank informed a net profit attributed to the shareholders of $ 770 million, compared to an estimate of $ 483 million in estimating the consensus provided by the company and expected of 886.4 million dollars in a LSEG survey of analysts.

The group’s revenues during this period amounted to 11.635 billion dollars, compared to the expectations of analysts of $ 11.64 billion in a LSEG analyst survey.

The bank has also announced plans to rebuild $ 1 billion of shares in the first half of 2025, along with an additional billion dollars during the second half of this year – but it warns that this goal is subject to the lender that achieves “its financial goals and the absence of Physical changes and immediate changes in the current capital system in Switzerland.

The group also proposes $ 0.90 per share for the fiscal year 2024, an increase of 29 % on an annual basis.

UBS shares were opened in a positive area, but they decreased by 3.3 % at 9:03 am London time. Deutsche Bank analysts “solid” results in the fourth quarter, but they indicated that “the partition mix could be better”, given the performance of personal banking unit and companies-which achieved an 8 % increase in the fourth quarter, “which greatly reflects Improvement in another income, partially offset by a decrease in net interest income, “according to UBS.

Among the most prominent other fourth quarter:

  • The revenue on concrete stocks was 3.9 %, compared to 7.3 % during the third quarter.
  • The CET 1 capital, which is a measure of banking soluble, was 14.3 %, and it did not change from the third quarter.

Investment banking services shone over the fourth quarter, as basic revenues increased by 37 % on an annual basis amid “strong growth” in the global performance of banking and global markets. The Group World Wealth Department has recorded a 10 % increase in revenue over the fourth quarter, “largely driven by the high income of frequent fees, a decrease in the other negative income and the highest -based income on transactions.”

“What is for us is always very important in the investment bank to match or approach it is better in separating those areas where we want to compete,” Sergio Ermeti, CEO of UBS, told CNBC’s Carolin Roth on Tuesday. “So if you look through the effects of stocks, capital market activities, as you know, as well as in integration, purchase and financing operations, we certainly do not grow our returns only as a function of the constructive market conditions, but we also get a share in the market.”

He added: “If you look at the return on the assets related to the risks of wealth management companies, its scope has been expanded, so we had a few points of receipt in terms of the return on the assets related to risks.”

In its view of the first quarter, the bank directs a decrease in the percentage of low numbers to the center in the net interest income (NII) in the operations of global wealth management, as well as a sharp decrease in its NII from NII and the bank division of companies.

The size matters

After wandering a troubled storm, backed by government with its local rival Credit Suisse in 2023, UBS said it was on the right path with its landmarks of integration of 2024 and provided an additional amount of $ 700 million of total cost in the fourth quarter. The group was hoping to achieve 7.5 billion dollars out of a total of $ 13 billion of cost savings by the end of last year, with CEO Sergio Erli in an interview Bloomberg last month that the increase in the increase was. “Inevitable“As part of this process – even where the group aims to rely on voluntary departure.

UBS said on Tuesday that it plans to achieve $ 2.5 billion of total cost this year.

The tightening of the Swiss belt adds to the image of the broader discipline of expenditures and restructuring in the banking sectors in Europe, with lenders out of a period of high interest rates and a claw profitation to keep pace with American peers. On Monday, his Swiss colleague bank Julius Bayer Detect An additional goal of 110 million Swiss francs ($ 120 million) in total savings HSBC He said last week he was preparing Reducing M&A operations and stock market operations In Europe, the United Kingdom and the United States

Armed with a public budget of 1.7 trillion dollars In 2023 Almost Switzerland Double The expected economic output Last year – UBS was fighting audio concerns at home that its scope had violated the comfort of the Swiss government, depriving the lender of their peers who could absorb it and face Bern with a sharp nationalization price, if it failed. Questions are now about whether UBS will face additional capital requirements as a result.

The Swiss economy has already been supported in a fragile angle through annual depression – Only 0.6 % in December A strong Swiss Swiss, who gained more land on Monday as the global turmoil caused by the American customs tariff has pushed the increasing investors towards safe assets.

“Of course, the continuous tariff discussions create uncertainty, as you see in the current environment, the market is very sensitive to any positive or negative developments,” Ermotti warned, while some fluctuations were emphasized by the markets.

“Of course, it is likely that the escalation of definitions, the wars of customs tariffs, are likely to translate into economic consequences in terms of potential stagnation or inflationary pressure, which in turn will force central banks to stop the light path, and they may have to the opposite to this, will definitely be something that the market was not (He has) pricing, and will lead to a higher rise in fluctuations.



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