UBS gives America a recession and sees the possibility of recession by 93 %, the “Mendi” economy in the future

The bank found that from May to July, “solid data” from the American economy showed a high risk level, standing at 93 % recently. This sits in “historically disturbing levels”, says UBS, given the record of this signal in determining the turning points using data from the National Office for Economic Research.

The bank notes other classic warning signs on an imminent stagnation of data, such as the inverted return curve, which is noticed that it is inverted by 23 %, fixed in recent months, but sharply since the beginning of 2025. based on building stress in credit markets, it finds the possibility of stagnation based on credit standards has risen to 41 %, which has exaggerated it since January.

luckDuring the year 2025, reports have set increasing signs that the United States is heading towards stagnation, echoing and expanding the scope of Note UBS. But when UBS grows into solid data, he finds that although most of the measures turn into negative, it is more in the type “Mile Wide Inch Deep” than “distress”. Not any of the difficult series of data shows “signs of rapid division”, according to the team led by Pierre Lavorkadi, which led to a comprehensive health invoice: “a stimulant, soft, weak, yes, but does not collapse.”

The main results

UBS analysis of “solid data” reflects the bank’s royal factor model, which depends on objective economic indicators that are not based on private income, consumption, industrial production and employment data. It liquidates morale surveys, the purchase manager (PMIS), and the financial market signals.

After a brief recovery at the end of 2024, the solid data signal was decisively tending to negative lands that start in February 2025. According to the note, none of the main solid economic chain showed the type of acute and negative deviation (like more than one normative deviation below) appears directly before the previous recession.

The main message is that the American economy, through difficult data standards, is preserved in a long stage of stagnation or slow contraction, which requires caution even with a complete collapse that has not yet been achieved. This is in line with Other analyst warningsEven if the recession is not fulfilled, the economy is heading to a seizures similar to the seventies.Recession“A mixture of recession and high inflation. For similar reasons, UBS does not predict stagnation despite the possibility of 93 % in difficult data.

The risks of the total recession

Despite the high risk, the UBS economy team does not officially predict stagnation, but it expects “innate growth” followed by Tahsin in 2026. The bank notes that the American economy team has warned it recently.Stroke speed“In the economy, especially after the job report in July revealed the growth of very low employment, and this call now appears” almost consistent with approximately 50-50 the interpretation that combines credit data, the return curve, and the leading solid data indicators. ”

The average UBS has solid data along with the upside down return curve and credit markets to produce the possibility of total recession by 52 % for the month of July, an increase of 15 percentage points since January and at the historically related levels with the specified recession. Therefore, the bank recession refers to a risky balance of the American economy – weaker than the soft landing, but not after the collapse – they move with policymakers and market managers on alert in alert 2025.

Another recession calls

Mark Zandy, Senior Economist for Moody Analysis, Be careful in early August The United States was on the edge of the recession, referring to a lot of the same solid data as UBS. Zandy argued with the main reviews of the bottom in the July report called for previous turning points before the recession, when he sees more likely reviews due to the fluctuations in economic activity.

Zandy’s notes followed A similar warning from jpmorganAnd that she said was “constantly confirmed that the slide in the demand for employment of this size is a warning signal for stagnation … in the episodes where the demand for employment slides with low growth, it is often tantamount to reducing.”

In the weeks that followed, Zandy expressed her concerns during the next winter from 2025/2026 as a time greater than weakness, Setting recession at 50-50. Within a few days, Zandy argued that the states that represent nearly a third of GDP were either In the recession already or at risk. Through his accounts, only a third of the economy was expanding in late August.

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