UBS appears to be alert on “stalling speed” as the economy shows signs of gas running out

The weekly observation of the American economy from the Swiss Bank was noted by the real GDP at an annual rate of only 1.2 % in the first half of 2025, and there is a big step of the most powerful speed that was observed in 2023 and early 2024.

The demand for employment responds somewhat. The growth of the monthly salary statements has slowed down, as July witnessed an increase of only 73,000 jobs – less than expectations and accompanied by significant declining reviews for the previous months. The average is three months to achieve job gains now 35,000 per month, which is the rate of description as “stalling speed” by Federal Reserve President Michelle Bowman and Governor Chris Waller. (Both Bowman and Waller A prominent names float to replace the President of the Federal Reserve, Jerome PowellOne of the number that the White House criticized Trump on a large scale.

It is important, the Pingle team has found a reduction in the participation of the workforce instead of sudden migration or population shock behind the weakest workforce growth. “The decrease in the workforce sharing rate has already blocked the extent of the tangle that occurs,” the report claims, noting that multiple demographic groups, including black and adolescent Americans, show a higher number of unemployment and hanging participation.

The population growth recorded by the family survey constantly retains near the levels of previous years – emphasizing that the most strict migration narrowing the labor market. UBS notes that this contradicts Jerome Powell’s data: “Despite President Powell’s statement at the post -FOMC press conference that the slowdown of immigration was slowing the population growth, and therefore the growth of the workforce, and this does not happen in the actual data. The poll of the home survey and the organization’s survey resemble the labor market, and the family’s survey itself is estimated that the growth of the population does not slow down.”

The average work week remains defeated, sitting in 34.25 hours in July – BELOW 2019 levels and away from the usual “expansion” when the labor markets are narrow due to workers ’lack. Industry data shows that job loss is not concentrated in sectors with large migratory workforce, which supports the opinion that the recession comes from poor demand, not under supply.

The definitions offered for climbing, threatening more clouds

The tariff policy, after a series of negotiations and executive procedures, is going on the right path to become more restricted. It is expected that the average tariff rate in the United States (WATR) from about 16 % to about 19 % of August (August (August) (except for the goods compatible with USMCA) and walking long distances that affect approximately 70 countries, is expected to raise the average US tariff rate (Water) from about 16 % to early August (except for The goods compatible with USMCA) and a set of goods compatible with the new USMCA goods from mutual definitions, including 35 % average on Canadian imports (except for USMCa compatible goods and long -distances that affect approximately 70 countries. UBS estimates that this will put 0.1 to 0.2 percentage of growth during the next year.

There is still a sectoral excavation, but with the European Union now confronting a 15 % tariff on most exports to the United States-the legend is more than the proposed in the original, but there is still a significant rise-OBS expects direct pressure on car prices, semi-conductors, medicines, and more. The presidential proposals for a 200 % tariff on medicines remain in discussion, but will have enormous effects if they are implemented.

Discounts on the horizon

With the installation of evidence that both growth and employment markets are softening and that the customs tariff may enhance the basic inflation from 2.8 % currently to 3.4 % by the end of the year, the pressure of the Federal Reserve is built to relieve monetary policy. While President Jerome Powell maintained the September rate reduction on the table, he only provided little direction forward, saying that the overall data will dictate the next step. UBS maintained its expectation that the Federal Open Market Committee would reduce prices by 25 basis points in September by 100 basis points before the end of 2025.

Ultimately, the bank found that the American economy has entered into a clear slowdown as it is exposed to 2025, with local momentum, the growth of cooling functions, and the higher definitions have been likely to mix this view. UBS researchers argue that the data shows a slowdown by the request, not pressure on the supply, and that the Federal Reserve is likely to behave soon to rid the decline.

For this story, luck The artificial intelligence is used to help with a preliminary draft. Check an editor of the accuracy of the information before publishing.