Trump’s threat may not be sufficient to transfer production

the Once hardly The relationship between the president Donald Trump and apple CEO Tim Cook The idea collapses from the United States iphone.

Last week, Trump said he “faced a small problem with Tim Cook,” and on Friday, he threatened to slap 25 % A tariff on iPhone In a social media publication.

Trump is annoyed by the Apple plan for the source of most iPhone devices sold in the United States from factory partners in India, instead of China. Cook confirmed this plan earlier this month During profits Discussions.

Trump wants Apple to build iPhone devices for the United States market in the United States and continued to pressure and cook the company.

“I have long told Apple Tim Cook that I expect their iPhone to be sold that will be sold in the United States of America to be manufactured and built in the United States, not India, or anywhere else,” Trump published in Truth Social on Friday.

Analysts said that Apple is likely to eat the cost instead of moving production.

“In terms of profitability, it is better for Apple to get a 25 % tariff on iPhone devices sold in the United States market instead of transferring the iPhone assembly lines to the United States”, an Apple supply series analyst Ming Che Ko Books on X.

UBS David Vogt analyst said that potential definitions by 25 % were a “similar title”, but they will be “a modest opposite wind” only for Apple profits, which leads to a decrease in annual profits by 51 cents in the arrow, compared to a prior expectation of a value of 34 cents per share under the current tariff scene.

For a long time, experts have seen that the United States -making iPhone was impossible in the worst case and is very expensive at best.

Analysts said that the iPhone made in the United States will be much more expensive, CNBC previously mentionedWith some estimates ranging from $ 1500 and $ 3500 to buy one of the retail sale. The employment costs are definitely rising.

But it will also be complex logistical.

Supply chains and factories of construction take years, including the installation of equipment and employees. Apple’s imported parts to the United States may also be subject to customs tariffs as well.

Apple started manufacturing iPhone devices in India in 2017, but only in recent years the region was able to build the latest Apple devices.

“We believe that the concept of iPhone produces Apple in the United States is a fairy story that is not possible,” wrote Dan Evez analyst at Wedbush in a memorandum on Friday.

Other analysts were cautious about predicting how Trump’s threat was eventually running. Apple may be able to conclude a deal with management – despite the eroded relationship – or definitions in court.

Currently, most of the most important Apple products are exempted from tariffs after Trump gave phones and computers Descending Even from China – in April, Apple does not know how the Trump administration tariff will play in the end After June.

“We are skeptical” to the tariff to be achieved by 25 %, as Wales Vargo analyst wrote.

He wrote that Apple can try to maintain a total margin of approximately 41 % on iPhone by raising prices in the United States by between $ 100 and $ 300 per phone.

It is not clear how Trump intends to target iPhone devices in India made by India. Rakers wrote that the administration can put a specific tariff on the phone from India.

Apple operations in India continue to expand.

Foxconn, which collects iPhone devices for Apple, builds a new 1.5 billion dollar factory in India that can do some iPhone production, The Financial Times I mentioned Thursday.

Apple refused to comment on the Trump post.