Trump’s tariff to increase unemployment, but it is unlikely to receive the collective

president Donald Trump The definitions are expected to cause the unemployment rate to rise throughout this year, although mass demobilization operations are not expected, according to a new analysis.

Allianz specialists said in a report published on Thursday that the US labor market remained steadfast “despite the escalation of economic opposite winds” and notes indications that flexibility should continue during the first half of this year.

“The vacancy rate will be the first to indicate a recession (expected in Q2-S3), but we do not expect to demobilize large workers,” they explained. “The American economy faces a unique mixture of supply restrictions (more than traditional thinking) and increasingly narrow immigration policy. It is likely that companies are likely to form a rare worker compared to previous stagnation episodes, which prevents an increase in unemployment.”

“Despite the highly declining infusion effects High customs tariffs Understanding in the high policy constantly, we do not expect a significant demobilization because American companies still have health profits and also face a significant shortage of employment. However, we expect the unemployment rate to rise, as it peaked by 5 % by the first quarter of 2026, “Economists wrote Allianz.

Unemployment fears jump to the highest level since 2020 in the Federal Reserve in New York

the The unemployment rate was 4.2 % In the month of March, which was the last month of the data was released by the Ministry of Labor, the Allianz analysis will witness the unemployment rate by 0.8 percent (PP) during the rest of 2025 until the first quarter of 2026.

Trump administration efforts, through the Ministry of Governmental Efficiency (Dodge) To reduce the size of the federal workforce, as agencies continue to move forward with the demobilization of workers and expand the acquisitions of workers. The lawsuits were filed against some traditional moves, which were made to shoot federal employees under observation.

Allianz does not expect that there will be a great height in Unemployment Because of the workforce discounts in federal government agencies.

How can Trump’s tariff affect the labor market

Defense motivation Federal workers’ demobilization The economists explained: “They are unlikely to shake the labor market,” the economists have explained. “The demobilization of workers from the non -excellent employees will work in agencies such as the Ministry of Education and the US International Development Agency to appear in the data in the coming months.”

“In October alone, the recruitment report is likely to obtain the impact of 75,000 federal employees who have chosen the deferred resignation. In total, we expect that federal workers will decrease approximately 200,000 this year – no more than 10 % of the annual employment gains find. But even in an extremist scenario, they are increasing over 2025 years.

The analysis added that with the expectation of the gradual weakness of the labor market throughout the year and “High inflation caused by customs tariffs In the summer, “the Federal Reserve is expected to move forward with interest rate discounts at the end of 2025 and early 2026 to support the full employment component in its double mandate.

Fears of stagnation, and the induction uncertainty drowns in the feeling of consumer

Also, Elianz Economists indicated that after the announcement of the Trump tariff, “Tahrir’s Day”, investors initially moved to safe traditional assets such as American treasury bonds And the dollar. However, as soon as the “mutual” definition scale becomes clear, the focus on inflationary effect and expectations that the customs tariff will push the inflation to the top and delay the cuts that were expected to reach earlier, stimulating away from those safe havens.

They wrote: “The markets quickly modified their expectations, and led the reassessment of the future path of monetary policy and lifting returns, especially in the long side of the curve.” “However, the most structural explanation and perhaps the most related explanation is the acquisition of traction: a wave of global investment from the American treasury and the United States in general.”

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“This is supported by a rare occurrence in the rise in American revenues along with a Weakening the dollar. The higher returns usually attract foreign capital and boost capital, “Economists have explained Allianz.” The fact that the opposite has signed indicates that senior holders not only sold the treasury, but also converting returns into currencies – perhaps re -allocating European markets. “