Trump’s tariff brings dangerous revenues – and it will be higher if not the government’s tariff costs $ 40 billion per year, says Goldman Sachs.

Goldman Sachs warned that export data indicates an increase in transportation rates from China to the United States through third-party countries-a similar pattern observed during the 2018 trade war. Bank analysts Joseph Brigz and Meghan Peters said in a report that the definition that occurs today can affect more than 200 billion dollars in American imports, which costs $ 40 billion of customs tariff revenues if the efforts made to reduce the reduction These aspects.

Earlier this month, Toristin Sick, chief economist in Global Administration ApolloWhich indicates that the Trump administration’s tariff efforts will bring “”Very important350 billion dollars in annual revenue.

Trump also imposes a comprehensive tariff on countries – recently a 100 % tax On the pharmaceutical pharmaceuticals permitted on October 1 – some companies have done their best to take measures to evade the fees. Many have warned that they are facing the value of influence Billion dollars every year. Goldman highlights a practice TransshipingOr reorganize the supply chain to charge products from a country with lower hypothesis. It can also seem to evade customs tariffs that companies reduce the value of goods or wrong label products as similar goods that are not subject to taxes.

Quoting data from the United Nations database, Goldman noticed a severe increase in exports from Asian countries – especially Vietnam – to the United States, corresponding to a similar increase in imports from those countries of China. Analysts said that while part of the link may be due to other countries dependent on Chinese goods as a result of tariffs, the shift speed can indicate transportation.

“In fact, the early patterns in trade data indicate some recently implemented definitions,” the note said.

There are also signs that foreign exporters reduce the value of American imports on the border. Goldman Sachs said the contradiction between the United States’ imports from China and China’s exports to the United States had expanded 4 billion dollars from year to date. That widen gap though Sunset from exemption This package allowed a value of less than $ 800 to enter the United States without duties.

“Moreover, US imports have been reduced by larger amounts than it can be explained reasonably through low production costs, indicating that multinational companies may avoid tariffs by lowering import prices in the United States,” analysts said.

How long has the United States lost by inductive evasion?

behind Early evidence indicates that the two countries may actually take a measure to evade definitions, evidence from Trump’s first administration – when he imposed import taxes on China – the United States has been lost by $ 110 billion to $ 130 billion of revenue from the customs tariffs.

According to American trade data, which Goldman Sachs killed in the January note, the Chinese import share of the United States decreased from 21.5 % in 2016 to 13.5 % in 2023, indicating a decrease of $ 240 billion in China’s exports.

But the bank has warned that this number exaggerates the US dependence on Chinese exports due to the induction evasion. Goldman Sachs reported that 30 billion dollars to $ 50 billion of trade was reinstated in 2023, which represents nearly 20 % of Chinese exports to the United States this transition effort represents only a small part of the introductory evasion.

“It is possible that the process of not reporting and the wrong name will have a greater effect,” analysts said in the January note.

Due to reporting the gaps on the imposed products, the gap between China’s imports, which was informed by the United States and the US exports reported for $ 150 billion. With estimates Goldman Sachs, the close gap in part was the result of $ 80 billion in evading the customs tariff. About $ 40 billion in this reporting contradiction was due to wrong products as commodities subject to reducing customs tariffs.

The Trump administration, for its part, has set plans Cutting to moveA 40 % additional tariff threatening the goods that are shipped across a third -party country with declines. The Office of Public Affairs at the Ministry of Justice announced last month the establishment of Commercial fraud work band To alleviate inductive evasion, as well as import smuggling.

The United States has opened an investigation into the Waaree energies, the largest solar panel maker in India, to determine whether it escapes from the duties that bring goods to the United States, Bloomberg I mentioned Friday, quoting a general notice.

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