Trump’s return has alarmed world leaders. But not India.

Over the past year, two legal bombshells have put India’s growing relationship with the United States to one of its biggest tests yet.

While the two sides were announcing unprecedented expansions in defense and technology ties, US prosecutors accused Indian government agents of doing so. Conspiracy to assassinate An American citizen on American soil.

Months later, the Ministry of Justice He filed fraud and bribery charges Against India’s most prominent business tycoon, whose ventures have risen to dizzying heights thanks to the power of Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

However, the relationship remained steadfast. Eric Garcetti, the departing US ambassador to India, said that after decades of mutual suspicion between the two countries, the fact that nothing now appears to derail their relations is evidence of their strength.

“I don’t think there is anything big enough to threaten the course of US-India relations,” Garcetti said Saturday in an interview at the embassy in New Delhi, two days before President Biden leaves office and Donald Trump’s presidency. J. Trump is sworn in as his successor.

“This is incredibly resilient and almost inevitable,” Mr. Garcetti added. “It’s really the pace and the progress that’s not inevitable, like how quickly we get there.”

The Biden administration’s intensification of the relationship with India came after nearly two decades of efforts to shake off Cold War-era suspicions that culminated in US sanctions on India’s nuclear program in 1998.

Washington sees great potential in India as a geopolitical counterweight to an increasingly assertive China. Already the world’s largest democracy, India could take over from China as the world’s most populous country in 2023. India’s demographic advantages and growing technological capabilities could help diversify global supply chains away from China, a priority for the United States And other major powers.

Now comes a second Trump presidency, with its America First orientation and threats to impose heavy tariffs on trading partners. While leaders of many countries are concerned, Indian officials insist they are not among them.

External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar said India enjoyed a “positive political relationship with Trump” and hoped it would deepen further. While attending the opening of a US consulate on Friday in the technology hub of Bangalore, also known as Bangalore, Mr. Jaishankar quoted Mr. Modi as saying that the two countries were overcoming “the hesitation of history.”

Mr. Modi enjoys a strong relationship with Mr. Trump, an important factor because of the incoming president’s personal approach to international relations. During Mr. Trump’s first term, Mr. Modi hosted him at a rally in his home state of Gujarat, as well as at a large gathering in Texas for Indian diaspora — an increasingly important extension of Indian influence in American politics.

But some analysts have warned that Trump’s unpredictability and transactional approach could pose risks for India.

Two issues in particular are bound to test the relationship, and likely soon. During the election campaign, Trump criticized India as getting an unfair advantage in trade by maintaining high tariffs. India could be drawn into this controversy if Trump follows through on his promise to mass deport illegal immigrants.

Indians constitute the third largest group of illegal immigrants in the United States, according to the report Pew Research center. If Mr. Trump sends large numbers of Indians home, it could be a major embarrassment to Mr. Modi.

Amita Batra, a New Delhi-based economist and trade expert, said India should see warning signs in Trump’s threat to impose even higher tariffs against America’s traditional allies, as well as his stated willingness to unravel deals with countries like Mexico and Canada that his first administration put in place.

“You might say we have a great relationship with Trump, and we have an easy relationship with the United States, but how Trump views that at a given time is a completely different question,” Dr. Batra said at an event held at the Center for Social Development. and economic progress in New Delhi. “India must approach Trump 2.0 with extreme caution.”

During the interview, Mr. Garcetti described bilateral relations as “the most urgent, challenging and important” for both countries.

Garcetti, the former Democratic mayor of Los Angeles, arrived in New Delhi in April 2023, after the mission had been without an ambassador for two years. His confirmation process has been deadlocked over accusations that he ignored sexual harassment complaints by an aide while he was mayor.

He made up for lost time with a burst of energy and communication like a politician does in campaign mode.

It was everywhere, from cricket grounds to cafeterias to cultural programmes. Wearing a leather jacket, he even sat behind the piano to open for jazz legends Herbie Hancock and Dianne Reeves, who came to perform at the Piano Man Jazz Club in New Delhi..

But by the time Mr. Garcetti tried his hand Dance to viral Bollywood tunes In celebration of Diwali, relations between the two countries faced major obstacles.

In India, right-wing trolls exploited American allegations about the Indian government’s involvement in a plot to assassinate an American citizen advocating a separatist cause in India. Nationalist voices online claimed that this, along with the US indictment of business tycoon Gautam Adani, was evidence that the US was trying to dampen India’s inevitable rise.

The Biden administration seemed determined to deal with the assassination incident calmly with New Delhi, demanding accountability without allowing it to become a major diplomatic sore point.

“On Capitol Hill, inside the White House, I think with those who knew it was a real moment of reflection and pause,” Mr. Garcetti said of the assassination case. “It didn’t stop the momentum — you know, relationships between countries are always multifaceted and simultaneous, not just between governments. But I think it was an immediate gut check.”

Mr. Garcetti said the Biden administration was reassured by India’s response. He said New Delhi accepted the US request “not only for accountability but for systemic reform and guarantees that this will never happen again.”

An Indian government investigation that concluded last week recommended legal action against an unnamed person with “previous criminal links.” She said the measure “must be completed expeditiously,” in what analysts saw as an attempt to start the Trump era with a clean slate.

“If we want to cooperate in other areas that are important to us, such as intelligence sharing, etc., then trust is the basis of everything,” Garcetti said. “But I was struck by the way confidence can be deepened through challenge.”

One question looming over the deepening ties between the two countries is whether India can truly emerge as an alternative to China in global supply chains — something Mr. Garcetti also questioned.

India has reaped only a smart portion of the windfall from moving away from China, as companies prefer places like Vietnam, Taiwan and Mexico, where it is easier to set up operations and where tariffs are lower.

Mr. Garcetti said India had made huge leaps after opening up its economy only in the 1990s, years after China. He picked up his iPhone to illustrate the recent success that was widely highlighted: about 15 percent of iPhone is now manufactured in IndiaIt’s a number that could continue to grow quickly, he said.

But more broadly, India is still struggling to attract foreign investment, despite improvements in infrastructure and some simplification of regulations. The manufacturing sector is not growing fast enough to provide the jobs India desperately needs.

“As India leaves a lot of progress, jobs and growth on the table, it is figuring out a better way to make investing here for export seamless and frictionless,” Mr. Garcetti said. “Because it is still, you know, for many components of manufacturing, one of the highest tariff economies, if not the most.”

“They’re not wrong when they look and say it was 95 percent worse,” Garcetti said. “But if that 5 percent is still twice your competitor or 10 times your competitor — companies, you know, are like water. They flow where gravity takes them.”