Trump’s grand push for peace in Gaza will stand or fail depending on the details

The history of peacekeeping missions in the Middle East is as checkered as it is long. The first ever UN deployment came shortly after Israel declared independence in 1948 – and it never left.

The small observer force remains in place, its mission unfinished, along with two decades-old UN “Blue Helmet” operations along Israel’s borders with Syria and Lebanon. Now the latest grand plan for peace in the region – this time backed by US President Donald Trump – depends on an international stabilization force to end the two-year-old war in Gaza.

The Internal Security Forces are supposed to provide the guarantees Israel needs to withdraw from the Gaza Strip without creating a vacuum that allows Hamas to rebuild. But diplomats said few details of the force had been settled. Its size, jurisdiction, and even the countries to which its forces will be deployed are unknown.

A Western diplomat said: “There are many ways in which (the Trump plan) could go wrong because it is clear that Hamas will still be present in Gaza, and unless it moves forward on the stabilization force and governance, there is a risk of everything collapsing.”

He added: “None of the main parties have come up with what they want: a comprehensive UN peacekeeping mission or something much smaller?”

Israel and Hamas did this I agreed to the first stage Trump’s 20-point plan is a ceasefire and release of Israeli hostages held in Gaza in exchange for the release of Palestinian prisoners. But diplomats said that the second, more thorny phase, which includes the disarmament of Hamas and Israel’s withdrawal from the Gaza Strip, is what will determine the success or failure of Trump’s peace efforts.

Also during this phase, the US President will look to Arab and Islamic countries to provide troops for the Iraqi security forces and allocate billions of dollars for the reconstruction of Gaza.

Trump envisions forming a Palestinian technocratic committee to manage the daily management of the sector’s services. It will be supervised by an international supervisory body, called the “Peace Council,” which will be chaired by Trump and include former British Prime Minister Sir Tony Blair, in addition to “heads of state.”

However, as with the Internal Security Forces, the role, duties and composition of both bodies are unclear, diplomats said.

“It’s a classic post-conflict sequencing issue of who does what when,” said Burcu Ozcelik, a Middle East analyst at the London-based Rossi think tank. “But these things need to be worked out in detail sooner rather than later.” “It is a very important mission, and it will be very difficult.”

Part of the reason the details were so vague is that the focus was on securing a ceasefire and releasing the hostages.

But a second diplomat added that Arab and Islamic countries are also concerned about Benjamin Netanyahu amending the original plan that Trump presented to them on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly last month.

These changes include the Israeli Prime Minister changing the timelines and positions for the phased Israeli withdrawal, and reducing the limited role of the Palestinian Authority.

The second diplomat said: “Many people (Arab and Islamic countries) want to amend the amendments that Netanyahu made to the deal, but they do not want to do that now. Rather, they want to complete the first stage.”

On the security level, American officials said that Washington is talking with “multiple countries” to contribute to the internal security forces.

They added that the US military’s Central Command – which includes Israel and regional member states – is preparing to deploy about 200 soldiers to Israel to help monitor the ceasefire.

But US officials said there would be no US troops on the ground in Gaza. Trump instead expects Arab and Islamic countries, including Qatar, Egypt, Turkey, the United Arab Emirates and Indonesia, to provide the bulk of the force, diplomats said.

A Trump administration official said the United States would be there “to help establish the joint control center in Israel” and then integrate other security forces deployed in Gaza.

Diplomats said there was Western reluctance to send troops, as well as fears that its soldiers would be seen as an occupying force.

Although Arab and Muslim countries have provided troops to UN peacekeeping missions in the past, this will be the first time a Muslim-majority force has been deployed – and the first time Israel has allowed foreign forces to enter the Palestinian territories.

Some countries, including Türkiye and Indonesia, have announced that they are ready to contribute troops. But many Arab countries fear being seen as doing Israel’s bidding or being drawn into rebellion.

Some have set conditions, including that publication be part of a political framework that creates a credible path toward a two-state solution.

France, which is working with the UK on the details of the force it will share with Washington, and Arab countries want it to be a UN-mandated force. But Israel, a harsh critic of the United Nations, is expected to resist any such move.

Another diplomat said the participation of Arab countries would depend on the mandate, what Gaza looks like, and what Hamas demands in terms of disarmament.

“There are a lot of big question marks about that, and then there are other armed groups as well, including Islamic Jihad and the clans,” the diplomat said.

Hamas is supposed to hand over its weapons, but it has not yet agreed to disarm. The Israeli attack severely weakened its military capacity and killed most of its senior leaders, but the group continued to recruit fighters and operate as a rebel force.

At the same time, Netanyahu insisted that Israel would maintain comprehensive security in the Strip. Since the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023 led to the outbreak of war, Israel has shown little respect for borders and diplomatic arrangements.

It has seized a large swath of territory in southern Syria outside the UN-monitored armistice line, and has launched regular strikes on the Syrian army since the transitional government took power after the collapse of the Assad regime.

In Lebanon, UN peacekeepers find themselves caught up in a conflict between Israel and the armed group Hezbollah, despite a ceasefire in November.

A former American diplomat said that Israel’s withdrawal and Hamas’s disarmament represent “the main risk of resuming the conflict.”

“It is very likely that we will see a scenario during the implementation of the agreement, where Israel does not feel that Hamas is disarming, and then military strikes resume,” the diplomat said. “If Hamas does not feel that Israel is withdrawing, Hamas will not disarm.”

However, the Western diplomat said that even if Iraqi security forces were deployed and did “absolutely nothing”, it would be difficult for either side to resume the conflict, “which is the thing that everyone wants to stop.”

They added, “No one expects the force to fight Hamas. It is likely to control the territory, perhaps assist with humanitarian aid, and monitor the ceasefire.” He added: “No one will be fought, and Hamas will not be disarmed.”

Additional reporting by Neri Zilber in Tel Aviv