People walk next to the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in front of the closing bell and the beginning of the press conference of President Donald Trump on the customs tariff on April 2, 2025 in New York City.
Spencer Platt Gety pictures
US President Donald Trump offered his commercial partners – and financial markets – some of them after Wednesday and he is running his identification policy.
The latest mutual tariff rates announced on April 2 Decline To 10 % for 90 days to buy time for negotiations for most countries and targeted regions.
Sorry markets, with a Historical gathering It is revealed in Wall Street on Wednesday and moved to Asian and European Markets on Thursday. But analysts notice that economic damage and markets may actually take place, and it may be difficult to reverse.
A group of economists and strategic strategists in Deutsche said in a memorandum on Thursday: “While there was a concept of concept as a guide on Trump that was placed in the wake of the extremist market conditions that we highlighted yesterday morning, but the genie is still outside the bottle on the inability to predict politics.”
They added that the 10 % customs tariffs are still the largest increase in these duties for decades, and there are few indicators on the type of commercial deals that the United States may accept in negotiations, which means that uncertainty has been continuing.
Meanwhile, Breston Caldwell, the American economist at Morningstar, suggested that the markets have responded severely to Trump’s declaration, warning of economic repercussions unless the policy of the US President’s tariff changes further.
“The market interacts with optimism today, unless Trump announces more definition and refrains with credibility of future revenge increases,” Caldwell said in the Thursday note.
He explained that “the average customs tariff rate as of today is still about 20 %, with the rate of tariffs on China about 125 % is an actual ban,” saying that there will be some adjustments to economic expectations, but adding that he was still expecting a “significant increase in inflation” and economic slowdown.
Arrows, economics and dollars
Analysts pointed out that the damage to the uncertainty, the feeling of cutting and the variable that was created by repeated policy attacks affect everything from the broader American economy and the country’s position in the global system of stock and dollar markets.
In a note, economists and strategy experts in Deutsche Bank indicated that although the S&P 500 mobilize gathers more than 9 % during the Wednesday session, “This still leaves the S&P 500 -3.77 % less than its level before the treatment tariff ads on April 2.”
S & P 500 futures contracts The last time was 2.1 % at 9:44 am London time.
The US dollar, which witnessed a sale after submitting mutual definitions for the first time, also bounced after Trump’s announcement on Wednesday. Since then it has been reduced again. the The dollar index The last 102.41 was sharply lower than the highest levels of about 110 seen in January this year.
“The Greenback Index” is expected to continue to trade in a volatile scope 102.00-103.50. “
He added, “It may decrease again in the coming weeks if it seems that the trauma of mutual tariffs has caused some damage to the solid data in the American consumer and commercial field.”
George Saravilus, global head of FX research at Deutsche Bank in Wednesday’s memo, said that the total economic impact may already reveal, although Trump’s move indicates that the American administration is somewhat interacting on pressure from companies and markets.
“Even if the definitions are permanently suspended, damage to the economy has been made with a permanent feeling of uncompromising politics. “
“On the structural point of view, the events of the past few weeks will be echoed among global economic partners during the upcoming negotiations on trade and indeed for many years to come. The desire to build a greater strategic independence from the United States will be on all fronts here to remain.”
“We can recover from this
Others like Jim Caron, chief investment official in a solution portfolio in Morgan Stanley for Investment Management, considers the markets to be recovered in the end.
“We can adhere to this,” said Squawk Box EUROPE on Thursday. “It will take some time and some confidence in rebuilding.”
Caron said that Trump is expected to take a “less heated or measurable approach” to some of his identification policies over time and create a “victory” Through negotiations. It has been suggested that the fluctuations of the market had already caused the White House not to communicate with its plans and what it will mean well enough.
“So the damages that occurred are essentially a shock to the confidence that made people demand a greater discount to buy certain origins, and this may be bonds, and this can also be shares, and this is what we are going through,” Karen stressed. “But with the passage of time – we have seen shocks on the market before – these things have a way to get congestion and healing themselves.”
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