Trump slaps a 25 % tariff, a penalty kick on Indian exported experts warns of gross domestic product, commercial impact

Just days before the deadline on August 1, US President Donald Trump announced a 25 % tariff for Indian exports, accompanied by an additional penalty. The move sparked fears of disruption of trade and economic loss, especially since the number is in line with the tariff that was announced by 26 % for the first time on April 2. Industry and economists are now warning of the gross domestic product and a strike in the competitiveness of India in export, while urging both countries to accelerate efforts towards the bilateral trade agreement.

After publishing on the social truth, Trump repeated his grievances against India’s commercial practices, citing “high definitions” and the continued purchases of Russian oil and military bodies. While referring to India as a “friend”, he confirmed that he will continue to face punitive trade measures starting from August 1.

Economists have put a sign of fears of the impact of these definitions. They have estimated that 26 % must lead to a decrease of $ 30 billion in GDP of India, about 0.7 % of GDP $ 4.3 trillion expected at the end of 2015 by the International Monetary Fund (International Monetary Fund). With an additional penalty kick now, economic repercussions can be more severe.

“When the United States initially imposed definitions, we cut the gross domestic product growth forecast for 2026 to 6.2 %, assuming that the weakest exports and the delay of private cabox. Now with both customs tariffs on the table, excessive excessive term has gained the full term. The full range will depend on the size of the confrontation,” said Adity Nayyar, ICRA’s chief economist in ICRA.

Macquarie and Goldman Sachs also issued warning notes. Macquarie estimated that the hypothesis exceeding 20 % can reduce the gross domestic product by more than 50 basis points, while the Goldman Sachs expects currency pressure, expected to weaken the rupees against the US dollar. The company indicated that RBI is unlikely to interfere very much.

Harsha Fardan Agarawal, President of Ficci, expressed his disappointment at the United States Resolution. “Ficci is disappointed by the US decision to impose a 25 % tariff on exports from India and impose secondary sanctions. While this step is painful and will have a clear impact on our exports, we hope this assumption will be a short -term phenomenon and that there is a permanent trade deal between the two sides that will be completed soon.”

He added: “India and the United States have a long -term partnership across sectors such as technology, defense, energy and advanced manufacturing. FICCI is sure that after the ongoing detailed deliberations, we will see useful results mutual when the features of the final trade agreement appear.”

India has been negotiating BTA with the United States since early 2025. However, according to the sources, some American demands are seen as against India’s national interest, and the government has so far resisted. The American delegation in India is expected to be in late August in the sixth round of the talks. Officials are optimistic that negotiations can be concluded by September or October this year.

The United States is still a vital export market for Indian commodities and services. He calls on industrial leaders to a long -term stable commercial framework instead of an accelerated agreement. As the Minister of Trade and Industry, PIYOUHOL GOYAL, will give India the priority for national interests on the final dates imposed.

Hemant Jin from PHDCCI noticed that while definitions create an immediate disruption, they also indicate an opportunity. He said: “The global buyers are looking to cancel the risks from excessive dependence on the chosen geographical areas. India-democracy, developmental and flexible-can fill this void,” and it calls for Indian validity to apply for quality, compliance and global competitiveness.

On Wednesday, President Trump announced a 25 % new tariff for Indian imports, as of August 1. It also alluded to an unlimited penalty. Trump has continuously linked the resolution of defense and energy in India with Russia, saying that the “very high” definitions in India and “hateful non -monetary barriers” have historically hindered the two countries.

This comes at a time when Indian imports of the United States are already subject to the increase in fees, including 10 % baseline tariff for most countries, 50 % on steel and aluminum, and 25 % on cars and components.

Despite these commercial challenges, the export of goods in India to the United States grew to $ 25.52 billion in April and May 2025, an increase of $ 20.89 billion in the corresponding financial period.