Washington, DC, US President Donald Trump is trying a highly dangerous maneuver in Iran’s bombing Then it quickly seeks to cancel the escalation tensions, telling analysts Al -Jazeera.
But it remains to see whether Washington can move in a clean way out of Imbroglio killerThat has the ability to explode into a large -scale regional confrontation.
Even if Trump avoids a wider war, analysts say that disturbing questions are still about the quality of American military intervention.
Early on Sunday, the United States joined Israel in its military campaign against Iran, where the B-2 Stealth was sent to shoot down the bombs on three nuclear sites in the country.
Trump frame military action as part of Washington’s long -term goal of preventing Tehran from building a nuclear weapon. However, the bombing sparked a reprisal blow, as Iran fired missiles in the United States Al Idid on the base In Qatar on Monday.
Since then, Trump Declare He stopped shooting between all parties and claimed that he was able to “stop the war”. he Credit The bombing with the combination of everyone. “
But the media wondered whether Trump was successful in destroying Iranian nuclear installations, as he claimed. Trump has condemned both Iran and Israel for early ceasefire violations.
“Once we concluded the deal, (Israel) came out and a group of bombs, which I had never seen, dropped,” Trump told reporters at an imperceptible moment in the White House park on Tuesday.
“We have two countries fighting for a long time and so hard that they do not know what to do.”
Behind the speech
despite First hours rocks After announcing the ceasefire, Israeli and Iranian leaders appear to be parallel to Trump’s messages about peace.
After a call from the American President, the office of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that his country would refrain from further attacks. His office said that Israel “achieved all the goals of the war.”
Meanwhile, Iranian President Masoud praised Bazakkian in his country. He said that Iran will respect the armistice and seek to protect its interests through diplomacy.
But experts warn that talking about peace and diplomacy may hide greater challenges in the future.
Tritita Parsi, Deputy CEO of the Queens Institute, a research tank, told Al -Jazeera that Trump’s harsh words in the last attack reveal his increasing general frustration with Israel, a long American ally.
They may also indicate that extracting the United States from Israel’s war with Iran may be more difficult than it seems.
“I think it is very important to understand that Israel does not want an end to fighting, and I think that Trump is beginning to realize how deep America and Israel’s interests in all this slowdown,” Parsi told Al -Jazeera.
Israeli officials have repeatedly indicated that their military operations against Iran aimed to push the regime change on a wider scale, a goal that Trump appears to support last week but has not violated since then.
On Tuesday, the Israeli Army Chief of Staff, Eyal Zamir, issued a statement of the confirmed media that Israel “ended in an important separation, but the campaign against Iran has not ended.”
This view may deviate from Trump, according to Barry. However, Parsi believes that Trump has shown more readiness to tell Israel “no” from many of his presidential predecessors.
“But Trump was not able to maintain” no “in an effective way,” Parsi added, noting the US President’s interference in the Israeli war on Gaza.
“He pressed the Israelis in the ceasefire in Gaza, but after that he retracted and left Netanyahu out of the ceasefire and does not go to the second stage of this agreement. If he wants to deal with Iran, he will have to make sure that he does not restore this error.”
However, Parsi pointed out that Trump showed a “noticeable accuracy” in his ability to abide – then withdrew – the American military forces withdrew from external conflicts. Earlier this year, for example, Trump entered 45 days of air strikes against the Yemeni -based Houthi armed group, but by May, he had him. The ceasefire revealed.
“Quagmire” danger
For its part, Iran was considered eager to find Out of the slope To get out of the conflict. Several analysts told Al -Jazeera that Tehran is likely to take pain to avoid any actions that could return the United States to the battle.
The United States and Iran were in talks to expand the scope of Tehran’s nuclear program. But the first sudden Israeli attack on June 13 took the negotiations.
NEGAR Mortazavi, a non -resident colleague at the Center for International Politics, said that Iran is still open to return to the negotiating table.
The country has long denied the request of a nuclear weapon, and instead it has frame its efforts as aiming to develop the civil energy infrastructure.
“Iran wants to have a civil nuclear program,” Motazavi told Al -Jazeera. “I think, if Trump accepted it, there is a very strong path and a possibility for a deal.”
Trump, however, was mysterious about what he might accept. he Described The American attack on Sunday as the destruction of “all nuclear facilities and ability” in Iran, in a series of phrases that do not seem to distinguish between nuclear enrichment of civil energy purposes or weapons.
His remarkable remarks with a classified report that was leaked to the American media, indicating that the Iranian nuclear program had been damaged but not blurred – and it can be rebuilt within months.
“Iran will never rebuild its nuclear facilities,” Trump, Trump books In one of the messages on Tuesday.
However, Mortazavi believes that Iran will likely have a choice but to return to negotiations, even if Trump again takes a maximum position and opposes every uranium enrichment.
“They may be able to meet somewhere in the middle of the road,” Motazavi said of the United States and Iran. She added that one of the possible settlement is to have a “consortium” from regional countries that would monitor a civil nuclear program.
She explained that “the alternative, which is the military conflict and war, will be destroyed for more civilians,” and she explained, “It can turn into a swamp like Iraq or Afghanistan.”
Sina Azodi, an auxiliary professor in the Middle East Policy at George Washington University, pointed out that the ceasefire at Trump advertisement On Monday it can carry evidence about his approaches to any renewable negotiations.
Trump started his statement by writing, “Congratulations to everyone!” Then he ended the mistakes with, “God bless in Israel, God bless Iran, God bless the Middle East, God bless the United States of America, and God bless the world!”
Azoudi said that the message – which seemed to put Iran in the same position as Israel – was not preceded by an American president since the Iranian revolution in 1979. He pointed out that Trump seemed to have put a tone of “reconciliation.”
This feeling was also reflected on the economic front. On Tuesday, Trump said China could continue to buy oil from Iran, despite US sanctions that would limit this trade.
This, also, was interpreted by many analysts as goodwill to Tehran officials, as Trump seeks a solution to the conflict.
“Trump wants to be the person who used military force, showed force, then put an end to the conflict quickly,” said Azizi to the island.
“He certainly does not want a wider conflict in the region, because after that, there is a possibility that he will have to resort to more military intervention.”
Analysts say that any other military involvement can raise tensions within the Trump base, as many of its followers “America first” oppose military action abroad.
Some have speculated that Trump’s approach and relief allowed him to do so DivisionSatisfying the hawks of war in the Republican Party while wasting those who disagree with foreign interference.
Azoudi said: “But it is impossible to know what comes after that, given his style.” “One day, he is on a good side. One day, he is a warrior and angry.”
Long -term success?
Whether Trump will continue his prayers for peace after the Sunday attack It is still unclear.
The American president was in a defensive state, as journalists continue to question the effectiveness of American strikes on Iranian nuclear installations such as Ford.
“This place is under Rock. This place was demolished,” Trump told reporters on Tuesday.
He called on the news to apologize for doubting the success of the mission. He said, “It is fake news.” “These pilots hit their goals. These goals were blurred.”
Azoudi pointed out that the American strikes seem less successful than the Trump administration. Evidence that Iran had transferred many of its uranium stocks in the period before the attack.
Azoudi said that what is clear is that the United States has violated international law to hit a facility under the International Atomic Energy Agency guarantees (IAEA).
This can lead to Iran to provide its threat to withdraw from the treaty regarding the non -spread of nuclear weapons (NPT), which liberates it from international obligations that limit weapons development.
Azoudi said: “In the short term, yes, Trump can come and boast (American strikes) on the social truth, saying that it was” obliterating “the Iranian nuclear program.”
“But in the long run, you cannot bomb knowledge. It seems that the Iranian fissile material has survived. Now the Iranians have a lot of motivation to withdraw from NPT.”
He warned about this, this means that “it will be impossible to monitor their nuclear program.”
https://www.aljazeera.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/AFP__20250624__63MR6B6__v1__HighRes__UsPoliticsNatoSummitTrump-1750794992.jpg?resize=1920%2C1440
Source link