Trump forces Europe at the expense of Ukraine

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The writer is the editor -in -chief and columnist of Le Monde

At the end of a lecture on history and freedom that was delivered last week in a wonderful hall of the nineteenth century at the University of Sorbon in Paris, the American historian Timothy Snyder had this message to the Europeans: If a ceasefire agreement is reached in Ukraine, “You must throw in all What you have to Ukraine – the membership of the European Union, the forces, the massive investment.

Emmanuel Macron does not need to be convinced. In Europe, the conversation about Russia’s war in Ukraine brutally turned. Donald Trump’s return to the White House and Ukrainian President Voludmir Zelinski to settle negotiations created a new and more volatile situation. Ukraine’s support for “as long as it takes it,” the allies talisman for about three years loses credibility when the main partner leaves the choir. Trump’s willingness to end the war, while keeping Europeans in the dark about how to intend to do so, represents a huge challenge to The leaders of the continent.

The worst nightmare of the French president, who is shared by many of his counterparts, is a Russian-American deal that takes place on Ukrainian and European presidents-a US diplomatic tradition that precedes Trump. Macron scored an early victory when he held a meeting between Zelinski and then President -elect Trump on the margins of reopening the newly restored Notre Cathedral in December. It is clear that this conversation helped Trump to realize that solving the problem will take more than 24 hours. European officials also indicate, somewhat reassuring, that the US President-so far-avoids Gaza’s hair-like scenarios. They believe that his plan has not been appointed yet, because Russian President Vladimir Putin still seems to be able to win this war.

One line knows that it is clear, however, is the American line. There is no need to leave NATO – Trump does not want his country to be burdened with a war in Ukraine. If Europe wants a seat on the negotiating table, it must have something to be placed on it in order to take into account not only the conditions of the deal but also its implementation. The deal that may look good for Trump because it stops the slaughter of “young and beautiful” will not be a good deal for Europe if it does not prevent Putin from attacking Ukraine again. From a European point of view, the strong security guarantees of Kiev are therefore the key to any agreement.

This is the place where things become painful for the countries that have been subjected to decades. we And now you realize that this guarantee has been given. “Very dynamic discussion”, according to a European official, about security guarantees that will be necessary. Among the most specified countries in this debate – which includes Poland, Paltik, Sweden and Finland – France is trying to play a leadership role, although in a new unfamiliar position: by mobilizing others and maintaining different pieces of the puzzle instead instead instead From this by playing his own card.

New formats were placed outside the European Union if necessary, such as the addition of Italy and the United Kingdom to the “Weimar Triangle” in France, Germany and Poland. Humility from the negative reaction a year ago to his sudden proposal to put “shoes on the western land” in Ukraine, Macron, who is also supposed to realize his weak position on the European scene because of his local political and economic factors, is working to do it to restore the confidence of his partners.

However, France is in a unique position when it comes to confronting an American president may act as a specialist more than an ally. For some Europeans, especially those most exposed to Russian threat, the possibility of Ukraine falls is a terrifying possibility, because they will find themselves in the queue. Consequently, the temptation to try to maintain American protection at any cost would conflict with efforts to build a strong European defense capacity. France does not share the same sensitivity because it feels protection through its independent nuclear deterrent.

Snyder in Sorbonne Echo are Mark Retti, the Secretary -General of NATO, who warned European Parliament last month that if the European Union member states did not increase significantly, then the only options you left are Russian learning or moved to New Zealand. They concluded between Putin and Trump, the Europeans finally face the reality they tried to escape for a long time.