Hundreds of foreign companies left Russia yet 2022 conquest UkraineIncluding major American companies such as Coca-Cola, Nike, Starbucks, Exxonmobil and Ford Motor Co.
But after more than three years of war, President Donald Trump has withstood the possibility of regaining the United States and Russia trade if there was a peace settlement. and Russian President Vladimir Putin He said that foreign companies can return in some circumstances.
“Russia wants to trade with the United States when this catastrophic” bloodbath “ended, and I agree,” Trump said in a statement after a phone call to Putin. “There is a tremendous opportunity for Russia to create huge amounts of jobs and wealth. Its potential is unlimited.”
The president then turned his accent towards Putin after heavy drone attacks on Kiev, Putin said, “I became completely crazy.” And the threat of new sanctions. The recent comments from Putin appear to warn Western companies against recovering their previous shares more accurately – they will not be a smooth process for companies belonging to Russia.
This is because the business environment in Russia has changed dramatically since 2022. Not in ways that foreign companies prefer.
With Putin escalating attacks and adhering to land demands, Ukraine will not likely accept, a peace agreement appears already far away.
Here are factors that American companies can deter back:
The risk of losing everything
Russian law classifies Ukraine allies as “non -friendly countries” and imposes severe restrictions on companies from more than 50 countries. These restrictions include withdrawing money and equipment, as well as allowing the Russian government to control companies that are important. The voices of foreign owners can be ignored on the boards of directors.
The companies that left the sale of their business were asked by 50 % or less than their estimated value, or simply their height while the Kremlin -friendly business groups have taken their assets at a cheap price. According to a presidential decree in 2023, the Russian government took control of the Finnish Energy Company Fortome, the German Energy Company, Onbero, the Dairy Company in France Danone and the Danish Mosser Karlsburg.
Even if the United States peace deal removes from a non -friendly list, and if the huge Western sanctions that restrict business in Russia are dropped, the record of losses will remain alive. A small sign of anything will happen.
“While the Russian government in general spoke about companies that belong,” there is no specific evidence for any one company that it says is ready to return. “Everything is at the level of political narration,” said Chris Wayer, CEO of Macro-Edvisory Ltd.
Elena Ribakova, an older -employed colleague at the Brussels Institute of Research in Brussels, says that Russia’s actions and legal changes have left “long -term damage” to the environment of her business.
She said that the return of American companies is “very unlikely.”
“We need to strangle them.”
At a meeting in the Kremlin on May 26 to celebrate the day of Russian entrepreneurs, Putin said that Russia needs to strangle large technology companies such as Zoom and Microsoft, whose services are restricted in Russia after Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, so that local technology companies can prosper instead.
“We need to strangle them,” Putin said. “After all, they are trying to strangle us: we need to respond similarly.
Associate a representative from vkusno-i tochka (Delicious period)-The Russian-owned company that has acquired McDonald’s restaurants in the country-that Moscow will help them if you try to buy the United States in the United States. Upon requesting to comment, McDonald indicated their statement to 2022 that “business ownership in Russia is no longer to be continuing.”
There is not much of the upward trend
In addition to the difficult business environment in Russia, the economy is likely to run due to a lack of investment in sectors other than the army, economists say.
“Russia has one of the lowest long -term growth rates and one of the highest levels of the country’s dangers in the world,” said Hili Simula, the leading economists of Finland in a blog publication. “Belarus only offers a poor mixture of growth and risks.”
Ribakova said that most of this opportunity to earn money is related to military production, and it is unlikely that American companies are likely to work with the Russian military industrial complex. “It is not clear where one can do exactly and expect external returns that compensate for this negative investment environment.”
Re -purchase agreements
Some companies, including Renault and Ford Motor, have left, with re -purchase agreements that allow them to rebuild their shares after years if the circumstances change. But given the unstable legal environment in Russia, it is difficult to rely on.
Russian buyers may try to change the conditions, search for more money, or ignore the agreements. “There is a lot of uncertainty about how to apply these re -purchase auctions.”
But what about oil and gas?
Multinational oil companies were among those who were leaving losses to Russia, so it is an open question if they wanted to try again even as Russian reserves were widespread oil and gas. The United States .. Major Exxonmobil has seen its share in the SAKHALIN Oil project, which was finished one side and deleted $ 3.4 billion.
The major oil companies in Russia need less foreign partners than they were in the post -Soviet Union, although the smaller oil field services may want to return due to the volume of the oil industry in Russia. Waver said they would have to face new requirements to create local presence and investment.
Some did not leave
According to the KYIV Economy School, 2,329 foreign companies are still carrying out business in Russia, and many of them from China or other countries that do not ally with Ukraine, while 1,344 in the departure phase and 494 have been completely out. The Institute of Executive Command at Yale University Management University lists about twenty American companies that are still carrying out business in Russia, while about 100 other people have been reduced by stopping new investments.
European Union sanctions may remain even if they are open
American sanctions are the most difficult, because they carry a threat to move from the American banking and financial system. But the European Union still slapped new rounds of sanctions against Russia. Even if US sanctions are dropped, European Union sanctions will continue to provide compliance headache to any company that also wants to do business in Europe.
