Companies trying to do more with less historically tend to automate during stagnation, but the appearance of the artificial intelligence can defend the typical style of the winners and losers when it strikes the next decline.
While knowledge workers with white collars have not suffered from the demobilization of the severe workers caused by the recession or the unemployed, the next time it can be different.
“More specifically, we believe that during the next recession, the speed and expansion of the adoption of artificial intelligence tools and applications in the workplace may lead to a wide range of professions that consist of unjust cognitive tasks in the first place;
Since the late eighties of the last century, jobs that focus on routine tasks have disappeared due to automation, Taski said. This includes “routine cognitive professions” such as sales and office functions, as well as “routine manual professions” such as jobs in construction, maintenance, production and transportation.
Over the past four decades, it takes longer and longer to bounce routine functions after stagnation. In fact, labor in routine professions no longer has no longer its peak before the great financial crisis.
On the contrary, “non-metroinogenic professions”-knowledge workers with white collars such as scientists, engineers, designers and lawyers-were much lower than courses, and are barely declined under pre-stagnation. They also led the recovery of previous workers most of the time, note Tasky.
The “fateful” sign in the unemployment style
However, an unprecedented transformation in unemployment trends can indicate that white -collar knowledge workers will suffer from a different fate in the era of artificial intelligence.
For the first time ever, workers from non -discotinical cognitive professions are now a greater share of unemployed workers from non -discothequist handicrafts (i.e. healthcare support, personal care, and food preparation).
Taski said: “The workers who were working last time in cognitive jobs are not a routine who always represents the smallest share of the unemployed in data, until recently,” describing it as a “fateful” sign. “This variable pattern may be an indication of the high risk of unemployment for these workers to move forward.”
This is as evidence of this Artificial intelligence already limits the number of beginners jobs Which is usually occupied by new university graduates.
He explained that artificial intelligence does not pose much more risks to routine functions or to non -routine manual functions that will continue to require more physical interaction.
The increasing threat to white collars’ knowledge workers is a greater danger to the economy than in the past, where they now represent approximately 45 % of the total employment, up from 30 % in the early eighties.
Taski warned: “The risk of much more unemployment and the prospects for recovery in anemia may cause these workers to seem to shrink the next job market very bleak,” Taski warned. “The unemployed recovery processes may be repeated by the growth of anemia in routine occupations again, and this time due to the recovery of anemia in non -discothequets.”
But others are not bleak about artificial intelligence and the labor market. Technical investor David Sachs, who also holds the position of Caesar in the White House, sought artificial intelligence and encryption, to expose many “Al -Quds novels” about artificial general intelligence.
in X Post on SaturdayHe said that there is a “clear division of work between humans and AI”, and this means that people still need to feed the artificial intelligence models necessary, give them wide claims, and verify their production.
“This means that the horrific predictions of job loss are in a large position like AGI itself,” added. “Instead, the intuitive that” will not lose your job in front of artificial intelligence but for someone who uses artificial intelligence better than you. ”
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