This summer will be decisive to the economy Wall Street

Many major events, data groups, progress reports and deals presented this summer. By autumn, the influence of President Donald Trump’s tariff and financial policies should be more clear, giving the federal reserve enough confidence to work on interest rates.

Below is a look at the factors that will flip the standards:

A beautiful beautiful bill

A major piece can come as soon as this week. Trump has set a final date on July 4 for Congress to pass the so -called beautiful beautiful draft law, which contains tax cuts and spending priorities.

While the House of Representatives issued one copy of the legislation The Senate presented one separateThe majority of the narrow Republican Party in both envelopes makes the timing of the final package and its accurate provisions is less certain.

He can pay everything he said They will not seek to re -elect themThis makes it less likely to raise the Trump arm.

Wall Street expects that taxes will reduce economics and the stock market, while the bond market will see the effect of the bill on the debts of the United States. The Congress Budget Office estimated that the Senate version of the draft law will almost add 3.3 trillion dollars for deficit For a decade.

More financial stickers shock can send the cabinet returns up and add more pressure on the dollar, which has already decreased by 10 % this year, which is its worst performance in the first half in more than 50 years.

Debt

Treasury Secretary Scott Payette estimated that the United States would not be able to pay its bills by mid -summer, unless the debt ceiling is raised.

Although he pledged that the United States would not fail to pay, it is up to Congress to raise the debt limit so that the Treasury can issue new bonds to serve interest and brown expenses.

The beautiful beautiful draft law will increase the debt roof by billions of dollars. Meanwhile, the Treasury uses the exceptional monetary management measures to avoid the failure to pay.

Bessin said last week that he had extended his ministry’s authority to use these extraordinary measures until July 24th A clear reminder to Congress To raise the roof of the debt before the August Model holiday.

Failure to raise debt and prevent failure to pay the United States will lead to a global financial collapse.

Definitions and commercial deals

Trump administration officials have said since “Liberation Day” in April that the main commercial deals are imminent. So far, the United States has reached agreements with the United Kingdom and China, while negotiations with other major trade partners continue.

Meanwhile, the 90 -day stoppage will end on the “mutual” Trump tariff on July 9, after which they will return to the levels that sparked a sales in the stock market.

Bessent referred to flexibility on this deadline, saying that dozens of commercial deals or so can be reached on Workers’ Day. But during the weekend, Trump repeated his desire to dispense with any other conversations Unilaterally setting a tariff rate In every country.

The sudden return to high definitions will provide another tremor to Wall Street, which was expecting duties In the end it settles at 10 % For most countries and 30 % in China – manageable levels can be largely absorbed without significant pain.

Federal Reserve

The definitions and their impact on inflation will significantly affect the central bank because it weighs whether interest rates should be trimmed. Pricing data has not yet revealed a significant impact of definitions, and a few federal reserve officials have said that this is evidence that inflation is sufficiently refusing to justify the discounts in prices.

But the head of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell and other politicians indicated that they needed at least a few months of data to be confident that inflation is already on the right path.

If the upcoming data shows that any tariff inflation effects are only once that do not raise inflation expectations for consumers during the longer term, price cuts may come in the fall.

While Trump demanded the Federal Reserve to a lesser extent immediately, it can make it difficult for policy makers to do so. They may hesitate more in cutting only to prove the markets that they are independent of political pressure. Facilitating definitions can weaken the image of inflation. The naming of the “shadow” feeding chair can stir a Rebellion on the Federal Open Market Committee.

Companies profits

Starting in July, profit reports for the second quarter will begin to leave, giving Wall Street a more period of time on how the customs tariff – and the economic uncertainty that it causes – as well as expectations of profits.

Since the companies rushed to store imports earlier in the year to advance in the customs tariff, the results of the first quarter did not fully reflect higher rates.

However, these stocks are exhausted, forcing companies to raise prices on consumers or eat customs tariff costs and reduce profit margins.

Also, the bonds in profits are the amount of what companies are planning or how the few companies plan to invest and employ in an economy that slows down the Trump’s commercial war.

The White House’s financial policies will also affect profits, as tax cuts, the end of tax credits, more spending on defense, and the least spending on the social safety network are rippled through American companies and consumers.

WildCard: Middle East

The ceasefire between Israel, Iran and the United States has been stopped, which led to low oil prices as the markets worry less about sudden supply.

But Trump said he was open to Iran’s bombing again if it was necessary to seize the nuclear program for Branan. This also shows conflicting reports on the amount of Iran’s capabilities that have already been damaged.

Renewable fighting can lead to an increase in crude prices, consumers separate to the power of spending, reinvent inflation, and increase the complexity of expectations to reduce interest rates and economics.

I wish you a wonderful summer.