This is the commercial conflict that would have been waiting for it

Xi Jinping was preparing for this moment for years.

In April 2020, a long time before President Trump launched a trade war that would shake the global economy, the leading leader in China held a meeting with senior Communist Party officials and put his vision to transfer tables to the United States in a confrontation.

The tensions between his government and the first Trump administration were Boil During a previous round of technological definitions and restrictions. Things get worse after the appearance of Covid, which stops global trade and reveals the amount of the United States, and the rest of the world, you need China for everything from Surgical masks for pain drugs.

In the face of Washington’s concerns about the non -trade balance, China could have opened its economy to more foreign companies, and pledged to do so decades ago. He could have bought more American aircraft, raw oil and soybeans, as its officials promised Mr. Trump during commercial talks. He could have stopped supporting the state -owned factories and companies that made solid panels and solar energy so cheap that many American manufacturers have gone out of work.

Instead, Mr. Xi chose an aggressive path to work.

In his speech before the Central Financial and Economic Affairs Committee in 2020:

Simply: China should dominate the supply of things the world needs, to make its opponents think twice in using definitions or trying to cut China.

In the years after that, Mr. XI has formed exports and China’s position deepened As a leading rule in the world to manufacture, partly by directing the central bank to lend nearly two billion dollars to industrial borrowers over the past four years. He also presented new weapons for the economic war to the country’s arsenal: export controls, the laws of Antimonoboli and the lists of blacks for their retreat to American companies.

So when the current Trump administration slapped a huge tariff on Chinese goods, China was able to go in the attack. In addition to revenge for its taxes, it is Imposing export restrictions On a wide range of critical minerals and magnets, the global supplies surrounded by China were. Such minerals are necessary to assemble everything from cars and drones to robots and missiles.

In the United States, the threat on the horizon of the shelves of empty stores and the high prices of consumers pressure the Trump administration. The prices of some critical minerals have multiplied three times since China has revealed its restrictions, according to Argus Media, a commodity research company in London.

“It is about flipping the leverage so that the world depends on China, and China relies on anyone. It is the opposite of what was disturbed, which is that China was dependent on the West,” said Kirsten Asdal, a former US Defense Department consultant who is now chairing a consulting company in China.

China still depends on the West for many advanced technologies such as high -end connectors and aircraft engines. But its willingness to the supply chain weapon may be one of the most examples of how to redefine Mr. Xi to the relationship of China to the world and the challenge of the superiority of the United States like any Chinese leader in front of him.

Make the world choose the two sides

Although they have now started talks that US officials say it aims to cancel the escalation tensions, the two countries seem to be in unnamed competition, especially for the decisive technologies that will form the future, such as artificial intelligence.

Their competition may begin to end the world in competing areas of influence. With the United States pushing other countries restricting trade with China, and warning Beijing that it will punish the countries that do so, the pressure on choosing the two sides is rising.

“China will use any tools available to it to cause pain and impose costs on the United States and any country in line with America,” said Ivan Mediros, a professor of Asian studies at Georgetown University who was an Asian advisor, Asia Adviser to President Barack Obama.

“The whole world,” Mr. MEDEIROS continued, “It is about to learn to answer a very important question: How far is we depend on trade with China and how much it deserves for us?”

Indeed, the Trump administration has shown that it could not completely cut trade ties with Beijing. Exempt Chinese smartphones, semiconductor and other electronics From some definitions. Mr. Trump also followed the definitions of car makers. China quietly indicated that it may exclude some semiconductors, life -saving medications and other healthcare products from 125 percent customs tariff On American goods.

However, a barrage of customs duties is at the heart of the growth engine in China. Exports were one of the only bright points in the economy that poorly weakened due to the property crisis and consumer confidence. If the trade war continues, this may lead to millions of lost jobs in China, as analysts estimate.

“Never kneel!”

For years, Mr. Shi said that the United States is determined to thwart China’s height, and the trade war appears to be fulfilled by its warnings.

Analysts say it seems more inclined than ever to bending China’s muscles, as he looks at the commercial battle as a test of his authority as a stronger Chinese leader since Mao Zaidong. Its strategy reflects its perception that China is no longer weaker than the United States.

When he reached power in 2012, Mr. Shi pledged to follow up “the great renewal of the Chinese nation.” This ambition is at the heart of the legend that was created around Mr. Shi: He is a transformative figure that restores the glory of China, which reflects a century of humiliation by foreign powers.

To achieve his goals, Mr. Shi changed the rules to allow himself to stay in power indefinitely. National security has made priority from all society. He poured money in strategic industries, such as semiconductors, which is believed to help China to compete better with the United States.

China has expanded its hegemony in Li -Ion batteries used to operate electric cars, Advanced robots For manufacturing, solar panels and wind turbines. Experts say China is also joining the United States to artificial intelligence, which is the battle interface for the upcoming industrial revolution.

Mr. Xi also stressed his grip on the wide advertising device in China, which has risen in recent weeks to mobilize the public for a long “struggle”. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs published video About the commercial struggle on social media entitled “Never kneel!”

“The trade war is the final verification that Western hostile forces are trying to contain China, its suppression and match.” “Shi says,” “We must be enough and strong enough to respond. “

Even if Mr. Shi ends up with the need to decline first, he can rotate a tactical decline as a victory over Mr. Trump.

“The concentration of the authority allows the Chinese leader to make comprehensive political decisions,” said Zewiwan Liu, a council colleague in external relations. Modern article For the Foreign Affairs Magazine.

China costs

It is not clear that Mr. Shi’s long -term strategy will make China strong enough to overcome the United States as the best great power. Focusing on critical techniques and economic self -reliance has worsened with trading partners in China, and comes at a cost on many Chinese families.

American leaders used to say that if China expands its economic ties to the West, it will gradually move towards political liberation and embrace free markets. But China has submitted its own terms, mixing its authoritarian authoritarian regime with capitalism and more richer without losing political control.

Mr. Shi has doubled on this model, as he directed more capital to state -owned institutions and banks to ensure that the Communist Party has said more about the direction of the economy. Entrepreneurs were given once to grow, but during the era of Mr. Shi, officials dictate which industries flourish and Which goes a bust. The most open economy, driven by demand in the market, not political mandate, could expand the ranks of China and middle -class consumers.

But this may be a challenge to the party’s control over society.

“This is not an economy,” said Yasheng Huang, a Chinese economist at the Massachusetts State Institute at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Experts have long argued that spending on social welfare will make the Chinese economy more balanced and less vulnerable to the West. Chinese economists have urged the government to invest in hospitals and pensions, and to help hundreds of millions of rural immigrants residing in cities qualifying to obtain urban advantages. These steps are extremely important to encourage ordinary Chinese citizens to save less and more spending, which contributes more to the country’s growth.

Some experts even wonder whether Mr. Xi should challenge the United States strongly, instead of following the famous saying of the leadership of senior earlier, Deng Xiaoping: “Hide your strength and cut your time.”

“China has become very ambitious without reaching the status of the superpower yet,” said Shin Dengley, a researcher -based researcher in Shanghai, focusing on the United States of China’s relations.

Mr. Shin was martyred with Beijing’s wide demands in the South China Sea; Hong Kong independence erosion; And the flood of Chinese exports that make it difficult for other countries to compete in trade. Combined, they have been isolated a lot from the world, which contributes to the account of Mr. Shi.

Mr. Shin said that China was once a “favorable external environment” to develop as a nation, but it was “deteriorating.” “It is very unfortunate.”

Disoki Wakapaishi It contributed to the reports of Seoul and Perry Wang and Joy Dong From Hong Kong.