The World Bank warns of commercial wars weighing two -thirds of developing countries

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The United States -dependent global trade war will decrease growth in nearly two -thirds of the developing economies this year, according to the expectations of the World Bank, as the lender warned of globalization that prompted an “economic miracle” in many countries to the opposite direction.

Emerging and developing countries will witness a growth of 3.8 percent this year – a decrease from 4.2 percent in 2024, according to the latest expectations of the World Bank’s economy, which prompted the expansion of more than a percentage less than average average rate in 2010.

The growth of individual income will be 2.9 percent in developing countries this year, and it is also more than a percentage point less than average between 2000 and 2019. The total global growth will be the slower since 2008, except for the recession, according to expectations.

The report emphasizes the damage caused by the Trump -led attack on the global trade of countries that have ranked among the largest beneficiaries of greater global integration in recent decades. Global trade growth in goods and services is scheduled to slowly slowing in 2025 to 1.8 percent compared to 3.4 percent of the bank.

The per capita GDP in the developing countries in the last century, raising more than 1 billion people of extreme poverty. But this shift is in danger now, as developing countries find themselves “on the lines of global trade conflict,” the bank said.

“Outside Asia, the developing world has become an area free from development,” Andremat Jil warned, warned, World BankSenior economists.

He added: “Growth in developing economies decreased for three decades – from 6 percent annually in 2000 to 5 percent in 2010S to less than 4 percent in 2020.”

The double pressure is the half of foreign direct investment flows to emerging and developing countries compared to the peak in 2008. The bank warned that the “negative risks” of expectations prevail, including an additional escalation of employment barriers and uncertainty in the ongoing policy and increasing geopolitical tensions.

The bank now believes that the gross domestic product of the individual in high-income countries would be almost as it was expected to be before the Covid-19s, while developing countries will be 6 percent worse. Regardless of China, “these economies may take about two decades to recover economic losses in the twenties of the twentieth century.”

The bank said: “There is a need for global cooperation to restore a more stable and transparent global commercial environment and increase support for weak countries that wrestle with conflict, debt burdens and climate change,” the bank said.

Last month, the Central Bank of Mexico, an emerging market that is largely directed at the American economic conditions, made growth expectations this year to nearly zero.

The South African Reserve Bank recently warned that the expected growth of 1.2 percent this year for the industrial nation in Africa was at risk of “a mixture of high commercial barriers, in addition to high uncertainty, may weaken the global economy.”

Jetta Jobinaet, the first administrative member of the International Monetary Fund, said last month that emerging economies faced a more stringent challenge in politics compared to the Covid-19 crisis five years ago, given the unexpected impact of definitions on their economies and the risk of negative capital flows.

Despite the warnings, investors make a gathering in the greater emerging markets this year in response to the weakness of the US dollar and bets that the worst Trump tariff will be canceled.

The real Brazilian rises by 11 percent so far this year against the dollar, more than the Swiss franc or the euro, while both Mexican and Taiwan are more than 10 percent.

Local currency bonds and emerging market shares increased by about 10 percent so far in 2025, behind European stocks only as the best assets around the world.

While many investors are betting at the beginning of the year that the emerging Asian economies in particular will strongly collide with our definitions with their exports, their currencies have risen instead.

The savings and insurance companies in these countries have invested significantly in American stocks and bonds in recent years, but they are now turning into the dollar assets.

“These dynamics explain the assessment of the Asian currencies sensitive to trade despite the growth that is waving on the horizon,” JPMorgan analysts said on Tuesday.

Despite the dark global expectations, many developing economies have also built “strong basics” after years of reforms on their financial resources since the 2015 oil prices shrinkage and other shocks.

“We look at about a decade or so from improving traction across the basics in different emerging markets … on the basis of delivering inflation goals, growth goals and other standards” including the best debt management.