The US economy is stable with Trump in control

the The US economy has entered 2025 With a steady hand, according to the National Association for Business Economics, a group of the nation’s top economists, the chance of a prolonged slowdown is low.

“The odds of a recession continue to decline according to panelists, with downside risks largely related to uncertainty about the implementation and timing of policy proposals from the new administration,” said Emily Kolinsky Morris, president of NABE, Central Bank of Egypt, and global chief economist for Ford Motor Company. , in the January business conditions survey conducted by the group from December 30, 2024 to January 13, 2025.

President Donald Trump, who took office a week agoHe hit the ground running, issuing a series of pro-business executive orders tied to making the US more open to cryptocurrencies, easing energy restrictions and freezing hiring of federal workers while DOGE, the government’s efficiency arm, assesses areas where waste should be cut.

tape	protection	last	It changes	% changes
ORCL	Oracle Corporation	183.73	-2.74	-1.47%
SFTP	Softbank Group Company	33.55	+0.15	+0.45%

In addition, A. announced $500 billion investment from OpenAI, Softbank and Oracle To expand the scope of artificial intelligence in the United States, he also threatens to impose tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China.

However, inflation remains a headwind. While 65% of NABE economists see prices as stable over the next three months, 35% expect price increases, a slight increase from the 28% polled in October.

The Consumer Price Index rose last month by 2.9% year-on-year and 0.4% compared to November. The core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy, rose 3.2% year-on-year. Inflation is well below its peak of 9.1% in July 2022 but still above the Federal Reserve’s preferred target of 2%.

Inflation rose 2.9% in December, in line with expectations

Trump criticizes Bank of America and ignites controversy over dealing with banks

During his remote appearance before the World Economic Forum on the occasion of his return to office, Trump held the Biden administration responsible for the rise in inflation.

“Over the past four years, our government has amassed $8 trillion in wasteful debt spending and imposed devastating energy restrictions on the nation, crippling regulations, and hidden taxes like never before. “The result is the worst inflation crisis in modern history, very high interest rates for our citizens and even around the world, food prices and the prices of almost everything else known to humanity,” Trump told attendees at Davos. , Switzerland Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.

“I will demand that interest rates be lowered immediately. Likewise, it should decline worldwide. Interest rates should follow us, he said.

Policymakers are expected to leave interest rates unchanged at the conclusion of the two-day meeting on Wednesday, according to the bank CME’s FedWatch toolwhich tracks the probability of price movements. This will keep the federal funds rate between 4.25%-4.50%.

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On Thursday, fourth-quarter GDP is expected to rise by 3%, in line with the 3.1% reported in the third quarter.