The United States will be more vulnerable to stagnation in late this year and early than the peak -off tariff and migration

in LinkedIn post on ThursdayMoody Mark Zandi said that the pioneering recession index in learning machinery has put in place the chances of contraction in the next 12 months by 49 %.

This comes weeks after his warning that the economy was “On the edge of the recession” And that More than half of the industries actually water workers, Remarkable This accompanies the last recession.

While tax cuts and government spending on defense should help grow, this will not come until next year. Currently, the main situation is that the economy avoids recession, “but not much,” Zandy said.

He added: “The economy will be more vulnerable to stagnation at the end of this year and early next year.” “Then the repercussions of inflation will occur in the higher definitions and the policy of restricted immigration to its climax, which weighs the income of the real family and thus consumer spending.”

Zandi sees GDP growth to a decrease of 1 %, a decrease from 3 % in the second quarter, with peak inflation by 3.5 %. The latest personal consumption expenses indicator showed that the annual average was 2.6 % in June, while the consumer price index rose in July 2.7 %. But even those expectations may be very low. Tell Zandy previously luck If Trump continues to deport migrants at the current rate, An inflation can approach 4 % So when it reaches its peak, it is more likely early next year.

Even the recession is assumed that the federal reserve rates are declining, starting next month. Friday, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell opened the door to evaluate the discounts During a speech at the Jackson Hall Economic Symposium.

According to Zandi, the measurement rate will ultimately stabilize with a 3 % balance level by late 2026, a decrease from 4.25 % -4.50 %.

Despite the fears of inflation at the Federal Reserve, the policy makers should be reduced because they see the effects of definitions on prices as only temporary instead of stability. Meanwhile, a greater risk is the inherent in job data.

“The weak economy, especially the labor market, will urge the Federal Reserve to reduce prices sooner and not later,” the weak economy, especially the labor market, will urge the Federal Reserve to reduce prices sooner and not later, “adding that the pressure from Trump to a reduction will be difficult to ignore as well. “The growth of jobs has already reached a stop by stopping, as companies have reduced their employment. Large landmarks refer to job gains in the previous months as well that the economy is at a turning point, and that job losses in the coming months are increasingly possible.”

With the economy facing many threats, it will not take much to push it to recession, and he warned against that, as he manufactured a sale in the treasury bond market that would send long -term returns.

This is because the United States is already soaked in huge budget deficit cases, which are also increasingly moved from interest payments on increasing debt. The recently passed tax spending package is expected to add trillion to the deficit.

Meanwhile, investors doubt the safe situation of treasury bonds, the American role in the global economy, and America’s ability to rule efficiently. In fact, Trump’s pressure on the Federal Reserve on Friday increased when the president He threatened to shoot the ruler Lisa Cook If you do not resign.

“There are many potential stimuli to sell the bond market,” Zandy said. “Given the recent events, Trump’s appointment to the new Federal Reserve Chairman by May is a good candidate. The independence of the Federal Reserve is a question, and it is not likely that investors in bonds are more likely to scare if the Federal Reserve has been arrested and maintains short -term rates very low for a very long time, which spoils inflation.”

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