The United States joins

Oil markets enter a new stage of uncertainty after the United States entered the war between Iran and Israel, with experts warning of three -number prices.

Investors closely monitor Iran’s reaction in the wake of the United States’ strikes to its nuclear facilities, with the Iranian Foreign Minister warning against his country “all options” to defend its sovereignty.

Future oil contracts have increased more than 2 % in the early hours of Asia. Our raw wti More than 2 % rose to $ 75.22 a barrel, while the global standard Brent Nearly 2 % rose at $ 78.53 a barrel.

“There is a real risk that the market suffers from unprecedented disturbances in the offer over the coming weeks, of a more severe nature than the shock of oil prices in 2022 in the aftermath of the Ukraine war,” said Saul Cavon, the chief power analyst of MST Marquee.

While the market reaction after the US strikes was less aggressive, For a little more than a week when Israel fired air strikes against IranIndustry observers believe that the latest developments are included in a new era of fluctuations for oil markets, especially as they are waiting for potential Iranian anti -measures.

The threats of banning the Strait of Hormuz, after the Iranian parliament agreed to close it, according to government media, to market tensions.

The Strait, which connects the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea, is an important artery for the global oil trade with about 20 million barrels of oil and oil products that you pass daily. This constitutes approximately five global oil shipments.

If Iran leads to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, it is possible that “Western forces enter directly to the battle” and try to reopen them, adding that oil prices may approach $ 100 a barrel and re -test the altitudes seen in 2022, if the closure exceeds more than a few weeks.

“Even a degree of harassment of traffic across the strait, which is less than full closure, can still see an increase in the risk of oil prices,” said chief of energy analysts.

Kavonic’s view is repeated by other industry experts.

Bob McKinale, head of the Rabidan Energy Group, said that the United States and the two allies will reopen the strait in the end, but if Iran uses all its military means, the conflict may “last longer than the last two Gulf wars.” And if Iran decides to attack the production of the Gulf energy or flows, it has the ability to disable oil charging and liquefied natural gas, which leads to a sharp rise in prices.

“The prolonged closure or the destruction of energy infrastructure in the main Gulf can push crude prices to more than $ 100,” he said.

the CBOE crude oil fluctuation indexWhich measures market expectations for the 30 -day fluctuations in crude oil prices, at the levels of March 2022 shortly after the invasion of Russia, Ukraine.

Although there is a level of uncertainty about how developments in the Middle East are operating for oil supplies, Andy Leville Levisz Ani Andy Levio noted that current developments carry a different weight.

He said: “This time it seems different, due to the multiple rockets launched for more than a week and now, the direct participation of the United States of America,” adding that oil may reach $ 100 a barrel must be issued through the hormone strait.

While trying to prevent the waterway between Iran and Sultanate can have profound consequences for the wider economy, the threats of the strait ban were often rhetoric, with experts. Saying that it is physically impossible to do so.

“So the image is a bit mixed, and I think merchants will make mistakes alongside caution, not panic unless there is more real evidence,” said Vanda Insights, Fandana Harry, Founder and CEO of Vanda Insights.

In 2018, Iran threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz amid increasing tensions after the United States left the nuclear deal and restore sanctions. A similar threat was issued in 2011 and 2012, when senior Iranian officials-including-then President Muhammad Risa Rahimi-was Caution for a possible closure If Western countries impose more sanctions on Iranian oil exports on their nuclear activities.

In addition, it should be noted that the Iranian energy infrastructure has not been targeted until now with the last fires, said Rebecca Babin, the chief energy trader at Cibc Private Wealth.

She said, “It seems that both sides have an incentive to remove oil from the fire line, at least at the present time.”