The sun does something strange before it unleashes solar flares

Intense solar flares — sudden bursts of electromagnetic radiation from the Sun — can release dangerous levels of energy powerful enough to reach Earth’s atmosphere. However, predicting solar flares is not as simple as predicting a sunny day.

A team of researchers led by solar physicist Emily Mason of Predictive Sciences Inc. has identified a type of solar activity within the Sun’s atmosphere that may precede and thus signal upcoming solar flares. Their research, detailed on December 6 He studies Published in Astrophysical Journal Letters It was introduced on January 15 during the 245th meeting of the American Astronomical Society, and has important implications in efforts to keep astronauts and space assets safe.

In fact, predicting solar flares is crucial to protecting humans and technology from volatile solar flares. Solar flares can disrupt satellite communications, GPS systems and power grids on Earth, while also exposing astronauts and spacecraft to dangerous levels of radiation. Thus, establishing a reliable early warning system would be a welcome tool to mitigate the risks of space weather.

Using NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory, Mason and her colleagues analyzed the flashes of coronal rings — arc-like structures in the Sun’s outer atmosphere, known as the corona — in the period leading up to 50 intense solar flares. Coronal loops are located in the same magnetically active regions of the Sun that also give rise to solar flares, according to A. NASA statement. The researchers note that the brightness of coronal loops in extreme ultraviolet light varies much more in the hours before a large nearby flare than does coronal loops over unburned regions.

“We found that some intense ultraviolet light above the active regions flashes intermittently for a few hours before the solar flare,” Mason explained in the statement. “The results are really important for understanding flares and may improve our ability to predict dangerous space weather.”

The researchers suggest that monitoring ultraviolet brightness variations in coronal loops could predict future solar flares two to six hours in advance with 60 to 80 percent accuracy, which – if proven valid – is more accurate than previously tried prediction methods.

“The sun’s corona is a dynamic environment, and each solar flare is like a snowflake, and each flare is unique,” ​​said Kara Kniezewski of the Air Force Institute of Technology, who also co-led the study. “We found that looking for periods of ‘chaotic’ behavior in coronal loop emission, rather than specific trends, provides a more consistent measure.”

Vadim Uritsky of NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, who also participated in the study, envisions creating a “well-tested (solar flare) indicator that, ideally, is simpler, ready to make the leap from research to operations.” The researchers also point out that the stronger the flare, the faster the flashing peaks, but admit that further analysis is needed to confirm this potential aspect.

Scientists have been trying to predict solar flares for decades. If the latest study proves correct, flashing coronal rings could essentially act as a flashing warning signal for people and technology in harm’s way.